Goodbye, Heidi

Guido will miss Heidi Allen as she stands down at the forthcoming election. The soon-to-be-former MP has had an interesting four years in Parliament, hopping ship from the Tories to lead the Tiggers, then to be an independent, and then to be a representative for the short-lived ‘The Independents’ and finally becoming a Lib Dem this month. During her time as an MP she attempted to become Mayor of Cambridgeshire, alas she was rejected by party members at the first hurdle. She didn’t even make the final round…

Heidi will be best remembered for telling her voters one thing and then doing precisely the opposite. By scarpering off now, pro-second referendum Heidi will never have to subject her real views to electoral scrutiny. A masterclass in avoiding any kind of accountability at all…

Of course she doesn’t deserve threats and abuse on social media, however when she says she is quitting because of “the toll on her privacy” did she really mean the scrutiny her hypocrisy and flip-flopping since the referendum has brought her? We wish her well…

UPDATE: TV Producers are passing on notes to not request interviews from Heidi as “she’d get too upset” in them.

Chair of LGBT Lib Dems Quits Party Over Phillip Lee

The chair of the Liberal Democrat LGBT wing has resigned from the party following Phillip Lee’s defection to them.I thought we had a soul and principles.”

Read her full statement here:

“I’m feeling devastated.

The powers that be have let Philip Lee in.

A homophobe, a xenophobe, and someone who thinks people should be barred from the country if they are ill.

F*ck this.
F*ck this so hard.

I thought the Lib Dems were not a single issue party.
I thought we had a soul and principles.
But apparently as long as you are on the right side on Brexit we’ll take you.

Well, I’m sorry, but no.

It doesn’t matter if we already have others as bad. You don’t make bad things better by adding more bad things. It doesn’t matter that he will increase our numbers in parliament by ONE. He thinks me and people like me are a lower class of human. I will not share a party with him.

I know you only get to do this once. I know I am ripping up almost my entire social life here. I know I am causing a lot of people a lot of organisational difficulties. And I’m sorry for all that. But there are some principles I will not compromise.

Sorry.”

‘Pull Trigger On Farage’ Lib Dem Banned By Twitter

The former Liberal Democrat candidate who asked his Twitter followers if “as a patriot” they would “squeeze the trigger” on Nigel Farage. After days, Twitter has finally banned his account. Looks like@RichardNoBrexit has become Richard No Twitter…

Former Lib Dem Candidate Wrote ‘Pull Trigger on Farage’ Tweet

The ‘FBPE’ Twitter account behind a Tweet that went viral today asking people if “as a patriot” they would “squeeze the trigger” on Nigel Farage was a Lib Dem activist and council candidate, Guido can reveal. His post was liked widely by Remainers on Twitter…

Before joining the Lib Dems, Hall stood as a Labour Party Parliamentary candidate in 1992, but left the party because of Tony Blair. His blog also writes about “the tragedy of zionism”. Maybe he would feel more at home in Corbyn’s Labour…

Nigel Farage told Guido “Imagine the outcry if a Brexit party candidate posted a picture like this of Jo Swinson. Double standards?” Quite…

Lib Dem By-Election Candidate Does Photo-Op in the Wrong Constituency

The other parties have largely written off the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election with a stitch-up between Remain parties leaving the Liberal Democrats almost guaranteed to win. Their candidate Jane Dodds has been out and about for some photo ops, hailing a “visit to Penderyn Distillery” and praising the “EU funding.” So kind of Brussels to give Brits a little of their own money back sometimes…

Dodds claims the distillery has “put our area on the map.” Impressive, considering Penderyn Distillery is not in the constituency. Quite a feat for the Lib Dems’ candidate to not be able to stay inside one of the largest constituencies in the country…

Olney Wins Re-Selection

The LibDems have finally re-selected MP-for-five-months and Ed Davey supporter Sarah Olney to fight her old Richmond Park seat. The party had forced their candidate to go through another selection process following her incredibly short stint as Vince Cable’s Head of Staff and a police investigation into her campaign spending. Last night a relieved Olney said…

“I’m honoured to have been re-selected by our local members to fight this seat. Thank you to everyone involved for a great contest.”

Guido understands that a contested selection like this is unusual practise for LibDem former MPs who want to stand again. In 2017 previously defeated candidates like Vince Cable, Jo Swinson, and Ed Davey were nodded through. Olney didn’t face such good grace from her local membership…

Tom Brake Accepted Donation From Kremlin-Linked Big Oil Firm

Tom Brake has become the latest Lib Dem to dabble in climate hypocrisy, after Guido revealed Jo Swinson’s fracking cash. Last month Tom Brake flew to Russia at the expense of big oil company Total IPG Russia, just weeks before calling on the Prime Minister to tell Trump that there must be “no back-tracking on climate change & no cosying up to Putin”. His big oil funded all-expenses-paid trip came at the expense of a company who are drilling the Arctic for over four billion barrels of oil equivalent and have ties to the Kremlin.

This is just the latest bout of hypocrisy to hit the Lib Dems’ “climate emergency” campaign after they approved a massive new coal mine earlier this year. When it comes to climate it’s one rule for the Lib Dems and another rule for everyone else…

UPDATE: Tom Brake gets in touch to say

“… This is my entry (an error was made in reporting to me who had paid for different elements of the trip which has been corrected in this entry).  Flights etc were paid for by Pluteos AG.  The only thing that was paid for by Total was a lunch at the French Embassy which cost less per head than the reporting threshold.”

Pluteos is one of those consultancies run by ex-spooks that do discreet business for clients with geo-political concerns, clients like oil corporations. So no transparency there…

Heidi on Joining Lib Dems: Never Say Never

Heidi Allen tried to water down rumours that she will join the Liberal Democrats last night on Peston, but left the possibility open for herself saying “never say never in this game because there are shifting sands”. Guido’s analysis shows that as a Lib Dem Heidi would hold a decent chance of holding her seat. As for the other TIGs, not so much

TIGs 2.0 – Can They Hang On?

Guido understands that the six ChUKas who left Change UK yesterday are planning to join the Liberal Democrats after a ‘cooling off period’. Here Guido analyses their chance of holding their seats…

Heidi Allen – South Cambridgeshire:

  • Verdict: Hold.
  • Estimated EU Referendum vote: 61% Remain
  • Once Andrew Lansley’s safe Tory seat, it has been trending steadily Lib Demmy as house prices push younger voters out of the neighbouring City of Cambridge. The Lib Dems took over the local council this year, and stormed the area in the European Elections…
  • The only Problem is that the Liberal Democrats have already selected a Parliamentary Candidate for the constituency, a local Councillor called Ian Sollom. He’s been pounding the ground hard and might not be best pleased if Heidi swoops in to steal his plum position…

Chuka Umunna -Streatham:

  • Verdict: Marginal.
  • Estimated EU Referendum vote: 79% Remain
  • Until the 1980s, Streatham was a safe Tory seat, but then London happened and Labour have held it ever since. In 2018 the Labour Party swept the board in Streatham’s council seats, although with strong challenges from the Greens and the Lib Dems in some wards. But in last month’s European Elections the Lib Dems enjoyed a more than 10% lead over Labour. It’s Remainer Central but Chuka has become a Momentum Hate Figure and they’ll throw everythign at it to dislodge him…

Gavin Shuker – Luton South:

  • Verdict: Loss.
  • Estimated EU Referendum vote: 55% Leave
  • Surprisingly, the constituency was one of the few places Labour is projected to have won in the 2019 European Elections. The chance of a Lib Dem winning here is very low…

Luciana Berger – Liverpool Wavertree

  • Verdict: Not a hope.
  • Estimated EU Referendum vote: 65% Remain
  • Labour won three times the Lib Dem vote, and ten times the Change UK vote share at the European Elections, despite the seat having voted to remain by almost two thirds. It’s the heart of the metropolitan North West. Anyone without a Labour Rosette is set to be wiped out…

Angela Smith – Penistone and Stocksbridge:

  • Verdict: Bad loss.
  • Estimated EU Referendum vote: 60% Leave.
  • Labour came just 1,000 votes away from losing her seat to the Tories in 2017, with the Lib Dems in last place. In the European Elections, the Brexit Party won double the (second and third place) Lib Dem and Green votes put together. Labour, the Tories, and ChUK were fourth, fifth and sixth respectively. Brexitland.

Sarah Wollaston – Totnes

  • Verdict: Loss.
  • Estimated EU Referendum vote: 54% Leave
  • Totness isn’t the heart of Brexitland but it the seat did voted to leave by a bigger margin than the country. The Brexit Party smashed it here at the European Elections, achieving double the vote of the 2nd place Lib Dems. It’s been Tory continuously since 1924 and demographics favour the Brexit backing parties. It would take an unprecedented Lib Dem surge, well about the high teen-low twenties for Sarah Wollaston, Liberal Democrat to hold her seat.

Even if they change their stripes to yellow the TIGgers are an endangered species…

LibDem Leadership Runners & Riders

The other leadership race quietly simmering away at the moment is that of the party that has in the latest polls now leapfrogged ahead of both Labour and the Tories. The self-styled “Bollocks-to-Brexit” party are enjoying a bump in support after their better than expected European election results. In order to be nominated, candidates have to be an MP, need the backing of 200 Lib Dem members across 20 local parties, and need the support of 10% of the parliamentary party (in other words, errr, one other MP). Nominations close this Friday, so there isn’t much time for new candidates to jump in the race. Guido brings you the runners and riders…

  • Sir Ed Davey – one of the two declared candidates, Former Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed has been focusing on his ‘Decarbonise Capitalism’ slogan, and getting the Lib Dems #BackInTheGame. He already has won the support of MP for-six-months Sarah Lolney, but not many others.
  • Jo Swinson – the other declared candidate and runaway favourite. Swinson has been the heir apparent since winning back her seat in 2017 but declined to run while the Lib Dems were still polling down in the doldrums. Her blue and yellow coloured JoinJo campaign recalls the colours of the EU flag… or perhaps the Coalition government, in which she served as a Business Minister. She will be wanting the Lib Dem selectorate to think of the former, not the latter….
  • Jamie Stone – a favourite with young Lib Dem activists last time round, giving birth to the hashtag #LetsGetStoned. More recently the highlands MP has been inviting the Prime Minister up to stay in his constituency, so he might be a bit busy. He has pledged to nominate Ed Davey but refused to endorse him, potentially leaving open a window of opportunity…
  • Wera Hobhouse – the new MP for Bath has become a regular fixture on TV. Born in Germany, having studied in Paris, then moving to the UK, she embodies the cosmopolitan European lifestyle the Lib Dems present themselves as being all about now, with none of that pesky coalition baggage. Despite planning to nominate Davey, she has endorsed Swinson so there is still time for another dramatic twist…

There could be an outside chance for two other MPs:

  • Vince Cable – could he change his mind after leading the LibDems to pole position in the polls. You would hear the screams from LibDem HQ if that happened.
  • Chuka Umunna – there are still three days for wild card Chuka to jump ship and finally achieve his dream of becoming the United Kingdom’s centrist party leader. Unlike the two declared candidates, Chuka doesn’t have the drag of being a former member of Cameron’s coalition government. Whether the Lib Dems would accept him into the party by Friday is another question…

Guido waits with bated breath to see the winner announced on July 23rd

Lib Dems Win Council For First Time, Give Themselves Massive Pay Rise

The Lib Dems caused a stir in David Cameron’s backyard by taking control of Cotswold District Council from the Tories for the first time ever in the local elections. Pretty much their first act after taking control was to give themselves a massive 25% pay rise, increasing their basic allowance by £1,000 each. Snouts in the trough from day one…

The Lib Dems’ rallying cry for the elections was “you deserve better!” Turns out the only people they meant were themselves…

UPDATE: Local sources are reporting the pay rise as a whole 25%, not just the 11% originally reported…

Now Lib Dem-Supporting Change UK MEP Claims She Never Joined Change UK

The plot thickens over former Tory MEP Julie Girling, who caused a stir earlier today by endorsing the Lib Dems, despite supposedly being a Change UK MEP herself. Girling now claims that:

“I was not and am not a Change UK MEP. I sit in the European Parliament as an independent.”

Meanwhile Change UK have blamed the Lib Dems for making the “claim” that she was a Change UK MEP. So whose fault is it that the BBC reported less than a month ago that Girling herself had confirmed that she was joining Change UK?

Either Girling was telling porkies then or she’s telling porkies now. Every time it looks like the ‘Remain Alliance’ have hit peak incompetence they manage to go one better…

Lib Dems Take Their Dodgy Bar Charts Digital

The Lib Dems have produced a flashy new video urging Remainers to vote for the Lib Dems to overtake the pro-leave parties. But following years of dodgy Lib Dem bar chart tradition, their own calculations don’t work…

Taking the latest poll, the parties that the Lib Dems say are ‘Brexit Parties’ make up… 68% of the vote, with just 28% for the UK’s Remain Parties. Guido has helpfully made a more accurate graphic for them…

Curtice: Not a Remain Backlash

The Twittersphere is awash with claims that the Lib Dems’ impressive exotic sprasm [sic] last night is down to a ‘Remain backlash’. That’s not what the data is saying. The Lib Dems are doing best where they had strong local organisation, and had been strong in the past (seats that span the Leave-Remain divide).[…] Read the rest

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Where Was The Lib Dem Candidate on By-Election Night?

The Liberal Democrats’ candidate in the Newport West by-election last night was nowhere to be seen at the count. Ryan Jones, a local businessman couldn’t make it to the count due to a mysterious “longstanding commitment” at ten past one in the morning.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Lib Dems Declare ‘Climate Emergency’, then Approve Massive New Coal Mine

Vince Cable stressed to the Lib Dem Spring Conference last week that “There is now a climate emergency.  But you wouldn’t think so from the complacent attitude of the government.” Quite the statement given that this year CO2 emissions have fallen to their lowest levels since 1888

He might want to tell that to his own councillors, who in Cumbria this week unanimously approved a new £165 million coal mine set to extract coal along the Copeland coastline. […] Read the rest

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Remain Campaigners Are Massively Outspending Leave Campaigners on Facebook

New spending figures released by Facebook have revealed that since October the top five anti-Brexit lobby groups have spent 60% more than than the top pro-Brexit groups. Anti-Brexit campaigners have spent over £711,000 promoting targeted anti-Brexit messages…

Despite this figure dwarfing the £444,000 spent by the top pro-Brexit campaigners, there have been little to no media reports about scale or source of these funds, or the motives of those bankrolling it.[…] Read the rest

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Lib Dems Quietly Ditch Anti-Semitic Candidate

Earlier this week Guido reported on the Liberal Democrat candidate for a local by-election in the rotten borough of Tower Hamlets. Their candidate, Abjol Miah, had shared deeply anti-Semitic content including a video by former KKK leader David Duke. He also tweeted alleging Jews are joining ISIS, and Zionist Jew Bill Maher“. […] Read the rest

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Lib Dems Accused of Selling Membership Data to Stronger In

The Liberal Democrats are accused of selling the personal data of party members to the Stronger In campaign. The allegation is contained within the Information Commissioner’s Office report into referendum spending, sections of which have been seen by Guido, which is due to be released later today.[…] Read the rest

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Calls For Baroness Tonge to Quit Lords After Yet Another Anti-Semitic Comment

Campaign Against Anti-Semitism has reignited calls for the disgraced Baroness Tonge to vacate her seat in the House of Lords, after she suggested that the Israeli government bears responsibility for the Pittsburgh attack. This is just the latest in a long, long list of anti-Semitic flirtations and jew blaming by the former Liberal Democrat health spokesperson.[…] Read the rest

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