The International Monetary Fund has downgraded the UK’s growth forecast by the G7. The IMF’s latest global forecasts have downgraded the UK’s growth projection for this year by 0.5% to only 0.8%…
| Country | 2026 Forecast | Diff. from Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| UK | 0.8 | -0.5 |
| Germany | 0.8 | -0.3 |
| France | 0.9 | -0.1 |
| Italy | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| Japan | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| US | 2.3 | -0.1 |
| Canada | 2.5 | -0.1 |
“In the United Kingdom, inflation, which in 2025 increased partly because of one-off changes in regulated prices, is expected to pick up again temporarily toward 4 percent before returning to target by the end of 2027 as the effects of higher energy prices fade and a weakening labor market continues to exert downward pressure on wage growth.”
It also says the unemployment rate will hit 5.6% this year. Big gulps can be heard from the Treasury…
10 a.m. Eastern Time. The IRGC have said they will retaliate. It goes on…
Starmer has walked back his attack on Donald Trump after comparing to the US President to Vladimir Putin last week. Too rich for his blood?
Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live, the PM was asked if he blamed Trump personally for rising prices as a result of the war:
“In terms of where the blame lies, it’s Iran that has caused the restriction on traffic and vessels through the Gulf, and they’re doing that in breach of international law… look we, the United Kingdom, were very clear that we weren’t going to get dragged into this war, and we’re not. But equally, we have been involved in defensive action, protecting British lives and British interests in the region.”
Asked again if he blamed Trump at all Starmer said “the increased costs are largely because of Iran’s actions in closing or partially closing the Strait of Hormuz.” Pressed on whether that is in retaliation to US and Israeli action, Starmer said “I mean, I’m not, look, I’m not going to get involved in that”…
On his trip to the Gulf just last week, Starmer said pointedly:
“I’m fed up with the fact that families across the country see their bills go up and down on energy businesses bills go up and down on energy because of the actions of Putin or Trump across the world.”
Add that to the list of U-turns from the PR PM…
Labour has not worked out what line to take on the USA’s blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. In fact Labour does not appear to know how it is operating…
Early education minister Olivia Bailey was asked on Sky News if the British government agreed with the US strategy:
“So the US’s ambition as is ours is for the Strait of Hormuz to be open.”
Bailey was asked six subsequent times if the government agreed. Eventually it got to this:
As laid out the US blockade strategy ‘interdicts’ vessels that have paid Iran for passage through its own territorial waters. It remains the case that the only ships passing through the strait – with the exception of very few – are taking this route. The US Navy is clearing the international passage in the Strait and has said it will stop vessels that have co-operated with Iran to pass through its own waters. Labour is just stonewalling until it can come up with a line that looks clever once more facts on the ground are known – Starmer’s golden strategy…
Starmer speaking at the end of his trip to the Gulf. Make up your own minds as to whether it was worth it…
“Well, the overarching impression here is the importance – as they see it – us standing with them as an ally, as a friend of theirs at a point of need. And there’s been reflection on the work we’ve done with them over the last six to seven weeks on collective self-defence. Here in Qatar, we’ve got a joint squadron. So, a real sense of here we are as an ally standing with our allies when it matters most to them. Obviously the discussion moved very quickly to the ceasefire. A sense that it’s fragile, that more work is needed, that the Strait of Hormuz has to be part of the solution, a very strong sense that can’t be tolling or restrictions on that navigation. And so we come away from here with a real desire on their part to work more closely with us on defence resilience, on economic resilience. That’s really important to us because this is impacting us back at home on our economy.”
Good to know there’s a “sense” that the Strait of Hormuz is important…
Starmer added that the UK has been “pulling together a coalition of countries, now over 30 countries, working on a political and diplomatic plan, but also looking at military capabilities and actually the logistics of moving vessels through these straits.” The proof will be in the pudding…
John Healey has summarised Starmer’s trip to the Middle East as ‘scoping work’ during a televised interview this morning. Meetings, meetings…
The Defence Secretary talked up Starmer’s role in changing Britain’s posture at the London Defence Conference:
“I thought that was a really important speech um and a very important sort of declaration of first duty and first principle from the PM. I think you saw it amplified when he made his Munich Security Conference speech a month or so ago, where he said that hard power is the currency of the age. Where he said that we know that we must spend more faster on defence, and the the personal commitment that he has made to leading the reset of relations with crucial allies.”
Healey added of Starmer’s trip: “the commitment that he’s making at the moment now in the Middle East to scope the sort of discussions for a strengthening of the ceasefire and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.” He turned up, thanked the troops, scoped some future discussions, and is coming back today – get this man the Nobel Peace Prize…
Healey said for his own part that his goal was to set up the MoD so “defence becomes an engine for economic growth helping to reinforce the number one economic number one mission of this government.” He must be upset at Reeves refusal to fund any more defence investment then…
Red Wall Labour backbencher Jonathan Brash told GB News that Starmer should resign:
“I’m completely fed up about it, and I think it’s got to the point now where I genuinely think that, as far as the Prime Minister is concerned, it’s not a case of if, it’s when.”