Recession is Coming, Where’s the Growth Plan?

This morning’s dismal revised ONS GDP data revealed that

  • UK GDP fell by a revised 0.3% in Q3 (previously estimated to be a 0.2% decline).
  • GDP is now at 0.8% below pre-pandemic levels (revised down from prior estimate of 0.4% below).
  • Household spending dropping by 1.1% after inflation in Q3.

Liz Truss, despite the now prevailing derision towards her, was right: growth is more important than balancing the books in the short term. Guido doesn’t get the feeling that Sunak or Starmer are prioritising economic growth above political positioning. Britain will almost certainly be in recession in 2023 – what’s the growth plan?

Rishi says the illegal migrants issue is getting his focus in Downing Street, “I do think that the absolute priority that the British people have right now, as do I, is to grip illegal migration… I can tell you that I’ve spent more time working on that than anything else…”. Guido disagrees with his sense of priority. Economic decline is impacting on everyone’s living standards and the latest Ipsos MORI survey confirms people are far more concerned about the economy than immigration. We need to prioritise getting a grip on growth.

mdi-timer 22 December 2022 @ 15:00 22 Dec 2022 @ 15:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Public Backed Liz to Grow the Economy Over Rishi

New polling from Ipsos MORI continues to show the dire state of Rishi Sunak’s party. The poll puts Labour’s lead at 26%, up 7% on November, with the Conservatives’ trust on the economy falling. On public trust to secure economic growth specifically, Rishi’s ratings are now significantly lower than Liz Truss managed. Liz had a lead of 15% over Labour, Rishi is level.

Economic statistics paint a similar picture. The economy outperformed other months in October, registering 0.5% growth in the one month Liz was PM. It seems the public had good reason to initially back Liz’s pro-growth message. Guido increasingly senses a widespread loss of morale from all classes and not just from the usual perennial gloomsters…

mdi-timer 19 December 2022 @ 14:47 19 Dec 2022 @ 14:47 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Public Put Putin Top of Naughty List

Ipsos MORI have been making a list, and no doubt checking it twice, of who the British public ranks as naughty and nice. With the exception of President Zelenskyy, voters put politicians firmly on the naughty list. The five public figures set to be most disappointed by Santa this year were:

  • Vladimir Putin – 61%
  • Donald Trump – 52%
  • Boris Johnson – 43%
  • Matt Hancock – 41%
  • Liz Truss – 41%

Piers Morgan also joined this esteemed collective, alongside Kanye West, Rishi Sunak, Elon Musk, Suella Braverman and Nicola Sturgeon. At least Piers should be used to low ratings by now.

And topping the nice list:

  • NHS Staff – 50%
  • David Attenborough – 40%
  • Paddington Bear – 40%
  • Martin Lewis – 34%
  • England Women’s Football Team – 30%

One notable absence from either contingent is Keir Starmer, for whom only 20% of people put on either list, with slightly more calling him naughty. It seems Sir Keir didn’t leave much of an impression…


mdi-timer 16 December 2022 @ 13:49 16 Dec 2022 @ 13:49 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Public Trust Labour Not Tories on “Levelling Up”

We are told that Gove’s White Paper on the government’s flagship “Levelling Up” policy will be out on Wednesday. Ipsos Mori had some startling polling out on Friday suggesting that despite constant repetition of the “levelling up” mantra by ministers, the public trusts the Labour Party to deliver on levelling up three times as much as the Tory government (44% against 14%). Who could have predicted that the socialists would poll stronger on reducing inequality?

The tax-hiking Tories have lost their unique selling point under chancellor Rishi, the Labour Party has a double-digit lead when it comes to which party is more trusted on taxation. This is an historic switch and a strategic political failure. The Tories just about maintain their trust lead on growing the economy (37% versus 31%). Will that survive when inflation starts to bite?

Fundamentally the ‘levelling up’ slogan works better as a soundbite for the Labour Party better than it does for the Tories. To explain the policy in cakeist ideological terms; the Tories have traditionally focused on growing the cake bigger for everybody, not slicing the cake up more equally. Redistribution is a socialist strongpoint, trying to occupy their policy space risks losing leads on traditional Tory policy strengths. The Tories seem to already be paying a price for trying to out-tax and out-spend Labour… 

mdi-timer 31 January 2022 @ 10:39 31 Jan 2022 @ 10:39 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Public Trust in Politicians Rises in 2021

The annual Ipsos MORI Veracity Index has been released for 2021, and against the odds, public trust in politicians has actually risen in the last 12 months. This year, a whopping 19% of the public say they trust both the government and politicians more widely, representing a four-point increase from 2020, and a return to the long-term trend after a two-year decline in the last two surveys. While Westminster will no doubt be overjoyed, it’s not all sunny skies: politicians are still among the five least trusted professions, alongside advertising executives, government ministers, business leaders and journalists.

The biggest drop this year, meanwhile, is with the police. Public trust in the force has nosedived by 8 percentage points, falling from 71% in 2020 down to 63% this year. Still, some good news for Guido: journalists managed to claw back five percentage points from a 2020 low, bringing their overall trust level back to its previous high of 28%. Merry Christmas…

mdi-timer 7 December 2021 @ 14:48 7 Dec 2021 @ 14:48 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Tories Lose Poll Lead Amidst Paterson Crisis

The Tories have finally lost their poll lead in the wake of the Paterson lobbying drama – dipping below Labour for the first time in months. According to new data from Ipsos MORI, Labour are now ahead at 36% compared to the Tories 35%, with the Greens at 11% and the LibDems at 9%. That’s a 4 point drop for the Tories while Labour remain static; definitely a Tory loss rather than a Labour gain…

mdi-timer 8 November 2021 @ 10:47 8 Nov 2021 @ 10:47 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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