Paul Johnson has just announced he is stepping down as Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. He’s been in post since 2011…

Johnson says “after 14 years at the helm, it feels like the right time to move on and start a new chapter in my life.” He will become Provost of Queen’s College, Oxford. The IFS says the search for his replacement will “take place over the next few months.” Plenty of tax fans circling around SW1 to choose from…

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has issued its typical doom-laden “Green Budget,” sounding the alarm that Reeves will need to launch a £25 billion tax raid if she hopes to stave off austerity. Cue the mass exodus of wealth creators, who are already eyeing the exit signs from the UK…

A key factor fuelling the ‘black hole’ Labour loves to shout about is the smoking ban. Freedom-loving think tanks have consistently lambasted the Tobacco and Vapes Bill since its inception for stripping Britons of their right to choose. And the IFS’s latest report highlights how this ban is turning into a significant drain on the Exchequer…

The IFS is clamouring for tax hikes to bridge the gap left by “the predictable disappearance of tax bases for… tobacco duties,” as revenue from tobacco taxes still stood at a staggering “£9 billion in the last financial year.” If the generational smoking ban gets the green light, tobacco revenue is set to “decrease faster than it otherwise would,” with the OBR predicting that “revenues for tobacco duties decline to approximately zero by 2060.”  You don’t say…

Meanwhile, the report further reveals that “vaping duty…will be insufficient to replace lost revenue from tobacco duty.” It also notes that ‘sin taxes’ can actually lead to a decline in revenue if they work as intended. So, this nanny-state, hell-bent on taxing wealth creators and restricting freedoms, is paradoxically driving down revenue for the Treasury. Maybe Reeves should consider that the £9 billion a year from tobacco duties could help fill part of the alleged £22 billion gap instead of resorting to more tax raids…

Eyebrows have long been raised about the widely-cited “independent” Institute for Fiscal Studies report into private school VAT. It has been used to “fact check” widely-held worries that Starmer’s class war on private schools will 1) funnel unsustainable numbers of children into the state system, and 2) not raise enough money. The report has for many months been the only shield for Labour politicians seeking to bat away legitimate concerns over its tax plan…

Last week it was confirmed that already 10,540 fewer students are at private schools – and that’s before Labour’s tax is even introduced. The IFS claimed 17,000-40,000 students in total would shift to the state sector. Co-conspirators might wonder why their report is so sympathetic to Labour’s policy…

As it turns out the caveat-filled report’s only author Luke Sibieta has been close mates for years with the Labour minister responsible for its implementation. Sibieta and Matthew Pennycook lived together in the noughties – Pennycook was even Sibieta’s best man at his wedding. Details of which have been meticulously scrubbed from almost everywhere on the internet…

The government has confirmed that the business rates policy change, one half of the tax raid on private schools, “will be legislated for through a Local Government Finance Bill led by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.” Pennycook’s department…

Lobby journalists treat interventions from ‘independent’ tax-fanatics at the IFS – such as today’s new call to massively hike capital gains tax – as gospel. Maybe when hacks work out that these wonks might not be as impartial as they are so desperate to appear they will treat endlesss calls for tax increases with a little more scepticism…

Rumours are swirling of Chancellor Reeves eyeing up a raid on pension tax reliefs, aiming to tighten her grip on hardworking Britons’ wallets. Now the Institute for Fiscal Studies has called for Reeves to reduce the amount that pensioners can withdraw from their pension pots tax-free. As it stands, savers can take out 25% of their pension tax-free up to £268,275, though the tax-happy think tank says this should be reduced to £100,000. Hitting 1 in 5 hard-working retirees’ wallets…

Tax lawyer and senior Labour activist Dan Neidle slammed the idea, pointing out the tax-free lump sum has been a cornerstone of the “deal” that workers have been promised when putting their hard-earned cash into their pensions. It would be yet another policy proving high-tax Labour view the elderly vote as less important. Reeves would be wise to ignore the idea, branded “unethical” by Cut My Tax. Changing the rules half-way through the game isn’t a good look for a party that claims to be one of “integrity”…

Co-conspirators will remember the “independent” Institute for Fiscal Studies report into private school VAT. The paper was jumped on by Labour and left-wing papers to “fact check” widely-held worries that Starmer’s class war on private schools will 1) funnel unsustainable numbers of children into the state system, and 2) not raise enough money. The paper allowed Labour politicians to “disagree” with challenges from the industry in media appearances, all without scrutiny…

The caveat-filled report’s author Luke Sibieta said he expects “that the change in private school attendance levels will be small. This leads to surer increases in tax revenues and less need for additional public spending on state schools.” Where Sibieta claims the policy will raise “£1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run” because only 40,000 children will switch to the state system, the vast majority of other reports predict that the policy will actually be cost-negative before too long. Guido wonders if there is any particular reason why the report’s author would want to support the policy…

Sibieta studied at UCL, teaching at which was Francis Green, chairman of the Private Education Policy Forum – an organisation which seeks to disparage and ultimately disband private schools. They have both contributed to the IFS’ major “Inequality Review”. Two months ago Green appeared at the PEPF to chat about his Labour-supporting report. Privately-educated Green also happens to have advised Jeremy Corbyn when the VAT policy and others were first drafted in 2017. Seven years later the PEPF is drawing up plans with the Labour Party for the state to take over schools that are forced to shut due to the extra tax. No wonder that Sibieta has produced a paper in support of a policy to further that plan…

UPDATE: The IFS says: “Luke cannot recall ever having met Francis“.

The Truss-era Growth Commission launched its alternative budget today ahead of the Spring Budget next week. They’ve put forward some pretty sound tax reforms: cut corporation tax to 19%, unfreeze tax allowance, phase out marginal 60% tax rate and abolish inheritance and tourist tax. They’ve sprung the idea to “rein in government overspend” to allow for the people to keep more of their money. 

Meanwhile the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that the UK is facing a £100 billion tax jump as a surge in immigration stretches public finances, hitting Brits with taxing times. Hunt would be wise to listen to some of the reforms put forward today over the ever-wrong OBR…