New research from the TaxPayers’ Alliance shows that global quangos raked in £85 billion from the UK government from 2009 to 2021. £7.5 billion is set to be spent every year from 2022 to 2027. That’s equivalent to a 1p cut in income tax…

The figures come from the TPA’s new “Global Quangos Uncovered” factbook which is documenting the increasing influence and cost to the taxpayer of unaccountable international quangos. The IMF alone got £2.1 billion from the UK taxpayer from 2012 to 2021. The TPA points out that out of 28 forecasts for the UK economy issued by the IMF between 2016 and 2022, 25 underpredicted growth compared to actual results. Taxpayers are coughing up quite an amount for pessimistic doomsaying of the UK economy…

The IMF published a “Strategy toward Mainstreaming Gender” last year and the WHO is spending most of its time attacking vaping. John O’Connell, TPA chief executive, says “Whitehall has handed ever more powers over to unelected international bodies… it’s high time the government looks again at our relationship with some of these organisations“. Calling time on the gravy train…

Here we are again. Today the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its World Economic Outlook, which now predicts the UK will grow at just 0.6% next year, a downgrade from 1% in their previous forecast. This would be the lowest in the G7.

As ever with the IMF, however, their soothsaying needs to be taken with an enormous pinch of salt. Not only are they notoriously pessimistic in their forecasts – see the chart below – they admit the latest outlook doesn’t even account for the upward revisions to the UK economy after the pandemic. Something you’d think would be relevant given how wrong the Office for National Statistics were… 

In April, the IMF predicted the UK would fall into a recession this year. That turned out to be wrong. They also claim in this latest forecast that they expect “the Bank of England to raise [interest rates] to peak at about 6%“, despite the BofE holding rates at 5.25% at the end of last month, and the markets now believing the peak has already been reached. According to Sky News, the IMF’s data today is based on figures from August. The difference between 5.25% and 6% is enormous, in case anyone at the IMF needs reminding…

Germany has formally entered recession, as the country experienced an economic contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023. This may come as a surprise to many in SW1 – after all, Rachel Reeves insisted “The UK is the only G7 country with negative growth this year”. Just weeks have passed and already that has been comprehensively debunked.

UK GDP growth in Q1 was 0.1%, underwhelming yet, despite Rachel’s claims, not negative. Meanwhile Germany’s was -0.3%. The IMF forecast Germany would grow by 0.1% whilst the UK would shrink by -0.3%. A timely reminder, if it was needed, to ignore the IMF’s reliably unreliable forecasts.

No doubt to the dismay of Labour’s attack team, the IMF’s revised forecast does look healthier for the UK, with growth set for 0.4%. Knowing the IMF, Guido hopes they’re still too pessimistic…

The International Monetary Fund has admitted it has, once again, underestimated the country’s economic growth, and now forecasts the UK will avoid recession this year. They claimed the UK economy would contract by 0.3%, the bottom of the G7 alongside Germany. Now that’s been upgraded to 0.4% growth over the year. 

Falling energy costs and improved business confidence have contributed to their revised data, although they hasten to add add that “the outlook for growth, while improving somewhat in recent months, remains subdued“. Not so subdued that the UK is now expected to outperform Germany, which is still forecast to contract by 0.1%…

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the revised figures were a “big upgrade”:

“It praises our childcare reforms, the Windsor framework and business investment incentives. If we stick to the plan, the IMF confirm our long-term growth prospects are stronger than in Germany.”

Since 2016 the IMF has consistently underestimated UK GDP growth… every single year.

While today’s figures are an improvement, Guido hopes they’re still far too pessimistic…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook, and predicts the UK will have the slowest growth of any major country this year, shrinking by 0.3% in 2023 and growing by 1% in 2024 – which is a small upgrade on their previous forecast. Germany is the only other G7 country the IMF expects to see negative growth this year.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said this afternoon:

“Thanks to the steps we have taken, the OBR says the UK will avoid recession, and our IMF growth forecasts have been upgraded by more than any other G7 country. The IMF now say we are on the right track for economic growth. By sticking to the plan we will more than halve inflation this year, easing the pressure on everyone.”

As always, it is worth bearing in mind just how wrong the IMF has been in the past: since 2016 the IMF has consistently underestimated UK GDP growth… every single year.

Their word is not gospel…

Read the IMF’s full forecast below:

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The latest IMF forecasts, showing Britain to be the only major economy facing a shrink in GDP next year, no doubt proves a major headache for the government. Somehow Britain falls behind even Russia, a country facing major economic sanctions from almost every single major economy. The IMF largely attributes this diagnosis to high taxes, despite condemning Liz Truss last year for attempting to cut taxes and go for growth. Ever get the feeling the UK can’t win?

Naturally the projections from the IMF are being treated as if God personally inscribed them on a stone tablet and handed them down from on high. The IMF is at least consistent in getting predictions about the UK economy wrong…

• 2016
  • Apr – 0.3% off
  • Oct – 0.4% off
• 2017
  • Apr – 0.4% off
  • Oct – 0.7% off
• 2018
  • Apr – 0.1% off
  • Oct – 0.3% off
• 2019
  • Apr – 0.4% off
  • Oct – 0.4% off
• 2021
  • Jan – 3% off
  • Apr – 2.2% off
  • Jul – 0.5% off
  • Oct – 0.7% off
• 2022
  • Apr – 0.4% off
  • Jul – 0.9% off
  • Oct – 0.5% off

Since 2016 the IMF has consistently underestimated UK GDP growth. Every single year. During an urgent question debate on the forecasts this afternoon, Michael Fabricant asked Treasury Minister James Cartlidge how many of the IMF’s recent predictions about the UK economy turned out to be inaccurate. Ask and you shall receive, Michael…