UK Growth Forecast to Be Slowest In G7 Next Year

Gloomy figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this afternoon, showing the UK is forecast to be the slowest growing economy in the G7 next year at 1.2%. Worldwide forecasts have also been downgraded following the “severe setback” of the war in Ukraine, with global economic growth estimated at 3.6% for both 2022 and 2023. The IMF underestimated last year’s growth by 2 points when it was forecasting, so this should not be taken as gospel. Inflation is also expected to stay sky high, with the UK projected to experience the highest levels in the G7…

mdi-timer 19 April 2022 @ 15:00 19 Apr 2022 @ 15:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
UK Still On Track to Be Fastest Growing Advanced Economy in 2021

New forecasts from the IMF shows that the UK is still expected to be the fastest growing advanced economy for 2021 at a rate of 6.8%, above the global growth projection of 5.9% and comfortably ahead of the US, France, Germany, Japan and Canada. Welcome news, although this is still a 0.2% cut to their earlier forecast back in July. 

The IMF’s paper says that the effectiveness of the UK’s vaccine rollout is, in large part, responsible for maintaining the UK’s growth – and adds that “great vaccine divide” between high and low income countries poses a serious risk:

“The case of the United Kingdom is instructive in the effectiveness of large-scale vaccination campaigns, even against highly contagious variants.”

“The foremost policy priority is therefore to vaccinate at least 40% of the population in every country by the end of 2021 and 70% by mid-2022.”

The report adds thatwidespread vaccinations can also have powerful, positive economic effects, bolstering the recovery.” When you get the call, get the jab…

mdi-timer 12 October 2021 @ 15:19 12 Oct 2021 @ 15:19 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
IMF: Brexit Britain to Grow Faster than Eurozone Post Pandemic

The International Monetary Fund’s new growth projection shows a global contraction of 4.9%, with every region of the world simultaneously in recession for the first time in human history. Advanced economies are projected to be hit particularly harshly by this crisis, with double digit contractions for the UK and Euro area this year at -10.2% each. Notably, however, is that in 2021 (after the UK will have left the economic orbit of the EU) the UK is set to fall by as much, then grow back faster than the cumulative Euro area.

Of course the projected 2021 growth will not make up for the 2020 recession. All advanced European countries’ economies are set to be smaller at the end of 2021 than they were at the end of 2019.  If we can believe IMF forecasting, individually over 2020 and 2021, Germany’s economy will have shrunk by 2.8%, the UK by 4.5%, France by 6.1%, and Italy and Spain both by 7.3%…

mdi-timer 25 June 2020 @ 08:29 25 Jun 2020 @ 08:29 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
IMF: UK Economy to Outgrow Eurozone

The IMF has predicted that the UK economy will outpace the Eurozone in its new forecasts released yesterday. The forecasts, stretching two years in the future, show the UK’s growth will accelerate in both 2020 and 2021. Despite Brexit…

Only the US and Canada are set to grow faster out of the world’s major advanced economies. Brexit Britain is set to grow faster than Eurozone poster-states France and Germany, in fact the IMF is forecasting that 3 fastest growing countries in the G7 will all be outside the EU……

mdi-timer 21 January 2020 @ 09:14 21 Jan 2020 @ 09:14 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Left Mistakenly Celebrates “Neo-Liberal” IMF’s Journey on Tax & Inequality

The IMF has long been a bogeyman of leftists who despise it as one of the key tools of US foreign policy, high finance capitalism and neo-liberal shock therapy. That was until an IMF analyst said:

“…the top personal income tax rates in OECD rich nations had fallen to 35% in 2015 from an average of 62% in 1981… Progressive taxation and transfers are key components of efficient fiscal redistribution… Optimal tax theory suggests significantly higher marginal tax rates on top income earners than current rates.”

The IMF backing higher taxes on the rich!

Cue reverse ideological ferret from left-wingers: Matt Zarb-Cousin spinning furious tweets citing the IMF, a leader in The Guardian, which of course whilst still blaming Thatcher for today’s inequality praises the IMF for its journey: “Make no mistake, this is a significant moment”. The implication is that even the neo-liberals at the IMF now think inequality has gone too far and we need more more progressive taxation and redistribution to undo that wicked Thatcherite policy of lowering taxes.

Guido has never been convinced that more billionaires make a society worse because they increase measured inequality. It seems self-evident that it is the number in absolute poverty that is the problem, not the number of billionaires. That is a different argument for another day.

Two points might dampen down the left’s welcoming of the IMF’s analysis;

The UK is already beyond the point at which the IMF thinks progressive tax rates are optimal.

*Arguably it is actually 70% at the point child benefit is withdrawn from higher earners.

mdi-timer 13 October 2017 @ 11:06 13 Oct 2017 @ 11:06 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
“Sick Man of Europe” UK Outperforming Eurozone Rivals

The IMF’s downgrade of its growth forecast for the UK economy this year is being seized upon to pursue the narrative that Brexit is hurting Britain while Eurozone economies grow. One Guardian headline says the UK has become “the sick man of Europe”. If you look past the headlines it’s a different story…

The UK is predicted to grow 1.7% in 2017, more than France (1.5%) and Italy (1.3%). Not sure how that makes Britain the sick man of Europe. Germany is forecast to grow 1.8%, just 0.1% more than Britain – which is forecast to be in the middle of the G7 performance table. The supposedly burgeoning Euro area has a 1.9% growth forecast, described as “solid” by the IMF. That is only 0.2% higher than the apparently disastrous UK. And the Eurozone is growing at its slowest pace in six months. Britain’s forecast for 2018 remains unchanged at 1.5% growth. Breathless pundits can calm down…

Today’s “downgrade” to 1.7% this year should be viewed in the context of the IMF’s referendum forecast of negative growth for 2017 in the event of a Brexit vote. The new numbers are of course a massive upgrade on their original prediction. It wasn’t just Brexit that exposed the IMF sham – in 2014 Christine Lagarde asked “Do I have to go on my knees” as she grovelled to the British government for her incorrect forecasts about austerity. No one should be taking IMF forecasts seriously any more…

mdi-timer 24 July 2017 @ 10:11 24 Jul 2017 @ 10:11 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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