The International Monetary Fund has just upgraded its forecasts for the UK’s growth in its World Economic Outlook series. It estimated in July that growth in 2024 would reach 0.7% – that’s now upgraded to 1.1% as expectations for 2025 stick at the previously forecast 1.5%. That’s after the UK economy outperformed expectations in the first half of the year…

After providing consistently inaccurate forecasts of poor growth for the UK last year, that’s the biggest growth upgrade for any advanced economy this time round. The United States is predicted to continue powering ahead with 2.8% growth while sluggish Germany is downgraded to zero. More on the “worst economic inheritance since WW2″ as Guido gets it…

The International Monetary Fund has today upgraded its forecasts for the UK’s growth. It estimated in April that growth in 2024 would reach 0.5% – that’s now upgraded to 0.7% as expectations for 2025 also get a boost to 1.5%. That’s after the UK economy outperformed all doomsayer expectations with 0.6% growth in the first quarter of the year…

Now the IMF says:

“With growth recovering faster than expected, the UK economy is approaching a soft landing, following a mild technical recession in 2023.“

The IMF adds to pressure on UK central bankers, warning that the Bank of England could “stall or reverse the recovery” by failing to put rates down quickly enough. Apart from spouting its usual stale tax-raising recommendations the IMF says that growth and productivity need to be restored with “structural reforms” which are “backed by an independent growth commission“. Guido can think of one such thing already set up and raring to go…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just published its revised “World Economic Outlook” forecasts for this month. UK growth in 2024 is projected to sit at 0.6%, an unchanged figure, with only Germany performing worse. The Krauts have received a 0.4% downgrade compared to the October forecasts – leaving their 2024 growth projected at 0.5%. It’s neck and neck between us and our sluggish friends on the continent…

UK growth projections have been downgraded for 2025 by 0.4% to a total of 1.6%. The IMF have done this to reflect what they call “recent upward statistical revisions” during the pandemic from the ONS. The IMF is now saying it “advises against further tax cuts” to preserve “high quality public services” – proving it doesn’t use them. These IMF projections, as usual, need to be taken with an enormous pinch of salt – they are notoriously pessimistic in their forecasts and have falsely predicted UK recessions a fair few times. The doomsters’ soothsaying should not be a reason to abandon tax cuts…

New research from the TaxPayers’ Alliance shows that global quangos raked in £85 billion from the UK government from 2009 to 2021. £7.5 billion is set to be spent every year from 2022 to 2027. That’s equivalent to a 1p cut in income tax…

The figures come from the TPA’s new “Global Quangos Uncovered” factbook which is documenting the increasing influence and cost to the taxpayer of unaccountable international quangos. The IMF alone got £2.1 billion from the UK taxpayer from 2012 to 2021. The TPA points out that out of 28 forecasts for the UK economy issued by the IMF between 2016 and 2022, 25 underpredicted growth compared to actual results. Taxpayers are coughing up quite an amount for pessimistic doomsaying of the UK economy…

The IMF published a “Strategy toward Mainstreaming Gender” last year and the WHO is spending most of its time attacking vaping. John O’Connell, TPA chief executive, says “Whitehall has handed ever more powers over to unelected international bodies… it’s high time the government looks again at our relationship with some of these organisations“. Calling time on the gravy train…

Here we are again. Today the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its World Economic Outlook, which now predicts the UK will grow at just 0.6% next year, a downgrade from 1% in their previous forecast. This would be the lowest in the G7.

As ever with the IMF, however, their soothsaying needs to be taken with an enormous pinch of salt. Not only are they notoriously pessimistic in their forecasts – see the chart below – they admit the latest outlook doesn’t even account for the upward revisions to the UK economy after the pandemic. Something you’d think would be relevant given how wrong the Office for National Statistics were… 

In April, the IMF predicted the UK would fall into a recession this year. That turned out to be wrong. They also claim in this latest forecast that they expect “the Bank of England to raise [interest rates] to peak at about 6%“, despite the BofE holding rates at 5.25% at the end of last month, and the markets now believing the peak has already been reached. According to Sky News, the IMF’s data today is based on figures from August. The difference between 5.25% and 6% is enormous, in case anyone at the IMF needs reminding…

Germany has formally entered recession, as the country experienced an economic contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023. This may come as a surprise to many in SW1 – after all, Rachel Reeves insisted “The UK is the only G7 country with negative growth this year”. Just weeks have passed and already that has been comprehensively debunked.

UK GDP growth in Q1 was 0.1%, underwhelming yet, despite Rachel’s claims, not negative. Meanwhile Germany’s was -0.3%. The IMF forecast Germany would grow by 0.1% whilst the UK would shrink by -0.3%. A timely reminder, if it was needed, to ignore the IMF’s reliably unreliable forecasts.

No doubt to the dismay of Labour’s attack team, the IMF’s revised forecast does look healthier for the UK, with growth set for 0.4%. Knowing the IMF, Guido hopes they’re still too pessimistic…