According to the IFS “It’s not accurate to say that debt is falling. Public sector debt is currently rising in cash terms, real terms, and (most importantly) as a per centage of national income.” Yet today both Sunak and Hunt have claimed the debt is falling as per one of Rishi’s original five pledges. This is simply not true.

To keep debt from rising above 100% of GDP over the long-term would require a cut in annual spending of 4.4% of GDP according to the OBR. After today real-terms spending is scheduled to rise even if the Tories win the next election. The simple truth is the national debt will keep on rising unless the economy grows faster or spending is cut.

The Treasury Select Committee is set to hear ‘oral evidence’ on Kwasi’s mini-Budget this Wednesday from a panel that looks like it was dreamt up by an FBPE focus group. The Anti-Growth Coalition’s own cast of Avengers…

The Institute for (Big) Government, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation are all sending their star performers to the show. No prizes for what Torsten Bell or Paul Johnson will have to say about a plan that actually supports tax cuts…

Yesterday, IFS director Paul Johnson was one of a minority of wonks to praise Boris’s new social care policy, saying the “world is a better place after today”, describing it as a “progressive and broad based increase”. The PM was so happy with this review he quoted the IFS at PMQs:

“Actually, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has confirmed that this is a broad-based and progressive measure.”

The IFS’ wider response to the policy noted, “those who have more of their wealth in financial assets will continue to be penalised relative to those whose wealth is in the form of their main home – even if the latter’s wealth is much more in total.”

Among other reasons why might Mr Johnson back such a policy? A 2014 Times interview saw the IFS boss actively boasting about his impressive property portfolio:

Six-beds in Muswell Hill now sell for £2,650,000, according to OnTheMarket. Why might Mr Johnson be so supportive of a high-tax system that favours property owners?

The IFS’s pre-Budget 2020 report makes for less-than-positive reading for fiscal conservatives, with the think tank saying government borrowing in 2019-20 is set to be £44 billion – £55 billion more than the £10 billion surplus they forecast Britain to be enjoying by now in their 2016 forecast. With Boris’s current spending plans, borrowing will rise to £63 billion next year…

The IFS has also said that Rishi Sunak should “recognise that more spending must require more tax”. It seems Rishi is taking this to heart, with reports this morning of plans to increase taxes for diesel used by off-road vehicles and machinery, and cut Agricultural Relief and Business Property Relief. Both policies would raise £3.2 billion – far off the £100 billion Boris is said to need for his splurge…

Thankfully it does seem the Chancellor is turning away from the idea of raising fuel duty after lobbying from Tory MPs in northern Red Wall seats. A letter signed by 18 ‘Blue Collar’ Tories makes the obvious point such a rise would hit working-class communities the hardest...