LibDems Ask Crosby Textor Fullbrook for Help

ctf

The LibDem’s Head of Strategic Research, Tom Smithard, has written to CTF, the firm run by Lynton Crosby, Mark Textor and Mark Fullbrook which was hired by the Conservatives at great expense to do their polling and give campaign advice. Guido has been passed Smithard’s strange request:

…  As part of the Liberal Democrat general election review I’ve been asked look into how exactly the Conservatives managed to beat us in the marginals.

I appreciate there are some – maybe many – aspects to your work you wouldn’t necessarily want to detail to former opponents, however vanquished. However I was wondering if you or a member of your team would be willing to speak to me and unlock some of the secrets of your targeting strategy, polling work, ground campaigning etc. I’m sure we’d find whatever you had to say most instructive!

If you have any time to spare and are willing to talk me through some of your work I’d really appreciate it.

Best regards
Tom

Guido asked the LibDems if they were perhaps being a bit naive? They admitted, on reflection, that they “expect the response will come in two words”.

An amused CTF insider suggests they should have asked Lord Ashcroft, who unlike CTF loves telling Labour and the Lib Dems what to do to win…

Danczuk Slams Andy Fandies

Andy Burnham is under increasing pressure to distance himself from his less reality-based online supporters – dubbed “Fandies” and condemned as “extremists” by rival camps. As Simon Danczuk told Guido in yesterday’s Sun:

“I’ve been really upset by it, and I’ve got pretty thick skin. All I’ve done is make some polite comments on Twitter and I get attacked by people swearing and abusing me. Some of the remarks I’ve received have been outrageous. It’s sad that it is reaching this level. These extremists are not doing Andy’s campaign any favours. He should distance himself from these people.”

Worth reading the Speccie on how many ‘Fandies’ are being orchestrated by Twitter’s favourite doctor of Irish feminism, Eoin Clarke, who was called out for “bullying” Danczuk last week.

Burnham’s team appears to have open channels with Clarke, indeed many of his MP supporters regularly share Clarke’s dubious content online. A Burnham aide even praised Clarke’s work to Buzzfeed: “Some of it’s quite creative; he’s a big fan of Andy’s”. Here is some of that “creative” work:

Is this the message Burnham is trying to get across?

Simon Danczuk v ‘Dr’ Eoin Clarke

Twitter’s favourite resident loony lefty, “doctor” of wimmin studies and serial idiot, Eoin Clarke, is recovering from election defeat by acting as some sort of internet heavy for Andy Burnham. This morning Simon Danczuk came to the attention of the good “doctor”:

eoin

Incidentally, a Twitter account called @LabourAndy has quickly amassed over 10,000 followers by tweeting out questionable claims and graphics, much like how one @LabourEoin made his reputation. The “unofficial account supporting Andy Burnham’s Labour Leadership Campaign” has been promoted by Burnham himself. When contacted by Guido, whoever runs @LabourAndy would not be drawn on whether or not their name is Eoin Clarke…

Silvio Berlusconi Joins Instagram

So, Silvio Berlusconi has joined the picture sharing social media network Instagram and is uploading pictures of himself with his dogs Dudu, Dudina & Harley:

The other recurring theme so far appears to be his 28 year old girlfriend Francesca:

Insta-bunga!

Liz Kendall Campaign Domain Trolled By Burnham Fans

This morning Liz Kendall launched her new campaign website for her Labour leadership bid. You can go to lizforleader.com and get the latest:

Type in lizforleader.co.uk, however, and you get something quite different:

“Did you mean?” appears in the tab and you are redirected to Andy Burnham’s campaign site. Dirty tricks starting already?

H/T Sam Bowman

UPDATE: And now anyone visiting lizforleader.co.uk gets rick rolled.

Message to Ed

message-ed

“We suffered a terrible defeat last week”, Labour general secretary Iain McNicol, who was sidelined by team Miliband during the election campaign, reminded supporters in an email last night. The purpose of the mass mail-out?

“I’m gathering together messages from Labour members and supporters to send Ed on Friday. If you’d like to write a quick note to Ed, click below — it can be as long or short as you like”

Guido has gathered up some for him, just what he wants to read on his beach in his Ibiza:

D. Miliband: “They didn’t want what was being offered”

P. Mandelson: “terrible… useless”

C. Umunna: “we need to get the message right”

L. Kendall: “moaning man in the pub”

T. Hunt: “We have moved backwards”

“It can be as long or short as you like…”

Digital Penny Drops

tweetfail

There were few undecideds on Twitter. It is an echo-chamber…

Tom Watson for Deputy Leader

tom_watson_nationabulider

Guido is happy to support Tom Watson for Deputy Leader of the Labour Party. His campaign is off to a flying start with a fundraising page set-up and ready to go. Unite union boss Len McCluskey’s old flatmate is exactly the right person for the job as far as Guido is concerned. Have even made a small donation…

Our Favourite #JeSuisEd Selfie Tweets

jesuisfifi

On the Twitter today Labour supporters think they are hitting back at the Sun’s front page featuring Ed Miliband unsuccessfully eating a bacon sandwich. In an act of solidarity Ed supporters are tweeting out selfies of themselves awkwardly swallowing food. Labour are proud that they are winning on Twitter, have they really thought this one through?

jesusimonkey

Here’s how it could be countered… 

jesuisdavid

Or even…

jesuisnigel

Or maybe not…

Twitter Sentiment Analysis Snake Oil

Last night The Sun’s analysis said Labour won the Twitter:

https://twitter.com/SunNation/status/593910895786500096/photo/1

The Press Association found that on Twitter Clegg had proportionately the most positive mentions:

Over at Fleishmann Hillard they found that Twitter was won by Cameron:

So there you have it, three different analyses of the same event on Twitter giving three different results in a three horse race. Based on the above Guido’s sentiment analysis is that Twitter analysis is snake oil, it is not a representative sample, the algorithms the social media snake oil salesmen use are just not up to it. In any event just watching a hashtag gives you a good idea of sentiment on Twitter without paying social media BS artists a fee. If you really think it matters…

International Rescue

Imagine the pain as he typed out that hashtag…

PM: “the Selfie Will Come, the Selfie Will Go”

David “too many tweets make a twat” Cameron has made another bold prediction in an interview with the Spectator:

“The selfie will come, the selfie will go.”

As Guido reported in the Sun last month, the selfie has been a key part of the Cameron premiership:

“So adept are Dave’s selfie skills now that he often takes the phones off those who are too shy or cack-handed and does it for them.”

He tells the Speccie:

‘It is an extraordinary phenomenon,’ he says, ‘and it sometimes makes part of the process of politics quite difficult. Everyone wants a selfie rather than to have a conversation, and sometimes that’s a bit frustrating, particularly with your party activists. I want to know what they are finding on the doorsteps, but actually you are too busy having your picture taken.’

Guido suspects the selfie will be around a little longer than Dave…

#MiliFandom: Fantasy versus Reality

Is Miliband sexy? We report, you decide… 

The fantasies:bedmiliband

The reality:
ed-gif

Guido suspects this mass hysteria was triggered by Caitlin Moran in The Times last week (Are women ‘perving’ over Ed Miliband?) and the Daily Mail (Red Ed’s VERY tangled love life). Apparently the whole #MiliFandom thing is driven by teenage girls. Remember kids, socialism is never cool…

Tories Accuse Labour of Stitching Up Shapps

shapps-computers

Punchy kick back from a Tory source regarding the accusations that Grant Shapps did in Tory rivals on Wikipedia:

“This Guardian smear is categorically false and defamatory. It is untrue from start to finish, and was quite likely dreamt up by the Labour press office. Sadly it is typical of the smears coming from those who would rather not debate policy and substance.”

A big shout, but if it was a stitch up, it’s deniable. Better than the “I was hacked” line trailed back in 2007

#LabourDoorStep #GameOn #Fail

Twitter is unbearable on weekends at the best of times, but in election season it becomes a soul-destroying sphere of horse sh*t, with thousands of activists sharing grinning pictures and vague platitudes about the reaction ‘on the doorstep’.

Here’s one such interaction Labour won’t be sharing this side of the election, but should probably use in a’ how not to do it’ guide for the next time:

So far it’s had almost half a million views on Facebook. Well Labour did promise millions of conversations on the doorstep…

Miliband Forgets the Deficit, Again

Head over to Labour’s website and they ask you for the “issue you think is the most important facing Britain”. Can you spot what they’ve forgotten?

No mention of the deficit or the economy, again. Labour candidates might not think it’s important, but the public probably does. The Tories will be cock-a-hoop…

Via Dan Hodges

#MassDebate #ThugLife

Well this was almost inevitable…

Poster Watch: See Them Here First

Labour’s new poster turns the Saatchi & Saatchi classic around back onto the Tories. Though whether or not it counts as a ‘poster’ is up for debate, since it is yet to actually physically appearing anywhere.

Meanwhile this punchy poster from UKIP is being launched at 2:30 this afternoon, though Guido can bring it to you first. The party promising no more foreign wars commits to 2% of GDP on defence spending. Has a touch of the No2AV about it…

Another Fine Mess…

Balls and Miliband

In an election deluging swing marginal constituencies with glossy lies, this leaflet from Andrew Bridgen currently dropping on doormats in North West Leicestershire stands out. Expect a Conservative hold. The Guidoisation of politics continues… 

Cripes! Boris Joins Twitter, Hits 10k in Hours

Boris has joined Twitter and picked up 10,000 followers in a matter of hours. Free from the shackles of his official Mayor of London account – run by City Hall civil servants – BoJo is promising it’s really him:

[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, says….

“The UKIP vote is going to the Tories. That’s the story of the first week of the campaign.”

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