Polling Model Maps Anti-Growth Coalition by Constituency

Those wondering why Conservative backbenchers so often find themselves opposing pro-growth policies may well be in luck. In a recent Substack post, Professor Ben Ansell has run an MRP model to find levels of housebuilding support, which can then be mapped by constituency. In news that might only surprise Liz Truss, the main strongholds of the anti-growth coalition are the Conservative shires. Co-conspirators can see for themselves on this map, where housebuilding support is represented by constituency size.

Housebuilding support is concentrated in cities, Scotland and the red-wall – all the areas currently voting Labour. Ansell’s research also includes a warning for pro-growth Conservatives. Amongst voters currently not intending to vote at the next election, house support is far more alike to Conservatives – i.e. the swing voters most in reach for the Conservatives are NIMBYs.

The NIMBYist seats in the country, in order of support for house building are:

  • Wyre and Preston North – 16%
  • Louth and Horncastle – 18%
  • Christchurch – 20%
  • Mid Derbyshire – 20%
  • Castle Point – 20%

The most YIMBY Tory seat is Kensington, occupied by Felicity Buchan, which has 53.2% support for housebuilding. Meanwhile, Dianne Abbott holds that honour for Labour – the most YIMBY seat in the country with 66%. Guido is counting on them to lead the charge for growth…

mdi-timer 13 January 2023 @ 15:49 13 Jan 2023 @ 15:49 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Tugendhat Hails Impending Tory Election Victory

Tom Tugendhat got the band together last night in Smith Square, where he was guest of honour for WPI’s drinks. His introduction came from WPI co-founder Nick Faith, who helped run Tom’s leadership campaign and pointed out their last speaker was one Elizabeth Truss. Despite Tom telling Guido in advance he wasn’t planning on making any news, eyebrows were certainly raised on two occasions. Not least telling the congregation the night ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s fiscal statement that “I know growth is no longer fashionable”…

His speech concluded, however, with a Mystic Meg prediction that surely warrants Tom putting his money where his mouth is:

“When I look at the budget… or indeed other things coming forward, I’m genuinely very, very positive. We’re beginning to see the end of the unreal era… I have to say I’m enormously positive about the UK… enormously positive about the Conservative Party. I think the reality is going to bring home to roost the truth that the Conservative Party is the natural party of government for a very good reason and so I think the polls may not show it today, I think we’re going to win in two years time, and I think we’re going to win well.”

Guido will hold off asking Tom for tomorrow’s lottery numbers…

mdi-timer 17 November 2022 @ 09:17 17 Nov 2022 @ 09:17 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Bank of England Upgrades Growth Forecasts

The Bank of England has upgraded its growth forecast for 2018 to¬†1.8%, up from 1.6%. Remember the Treasury said we would be in recession by now. Anyone really believe they didn’t fiddle the figures?

mdi-timer 8 February 2018 @ 12:28 8 Feb 2018 @ 12:28 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments