British Polling Council: “No Inquiry”

The official statement from the British Polling Council says although “… the final polls were not ideal, the BPC does not feel there is a need for another formal inquiry”:

“The polls proved very good at predicting the Conservative vote, with an average of the final polls being only 0.2% higher than the actual result… They did, however, prove much less good at predicting the Labour vote, with the pollsters’ average being 5.2% below Labour’s actual share. This is only the second election since 1987 when the pollsters have underestimated the Labour share. The average poll figure for the Liberal Democrats was very close, being only 0.3% different from the result.”

Guido has calculated the above accuracy league from the BPC statement. The official final polls as per the BPC (and the BBC) show that the pollsters were on average out by 1.97%. Which could easily be a decisive margin in a general election…

Data here spreadsheet monkeys.

Campaign Report: Final Day!

Back Theresa May and together we can make a success of Brexit and reignite the British spirit. Vote Conservative tomorrow.

Labour will build a Britain that works for the many, not the few. Vote Labour tomorrow.

Lend your vote to the LibDems to stop a Tory majority.

Cut immigration, a more secure Britain, NHS before foreign aid, protecting British culture, modern & fair democracy. Vote UKIP; Britain together.

Tomorrow, we urge you to vote with your heart. A Green vote changes the political climate.

Only voting SNP can ensure there are voices in Westminster standing up for Scotland and against Tory cuts.

On the day before the election Labour ditch Diane Abbott due to ‘sickness’.

Guido’s runners and riders for next Labour Party leader and his 7/1 tip for the top.

Final ICM/Guardian poll: Con 46% Lab 34% LibDems 7% Ukip 5% Greens 2%

Campaign Report: 1 Day to Election Day

If we get Brexit right, we can do great things as a country. Vote for me and my team to deliver a brighter future for everyone and reignite the British spirit.

We will change the funding formula for primary schools and to ensure free school meals for every primary school child.

Tonight we launch our manifesto for young people with a £6 billion infrastructure fund to repair schools across England.

Shut down radical mosques.

Until Donald Trump apologises to Sadiq Khan, he shouldn’t be allowed to have a state visit here.

End austerity, a real Living Wage of over £10, investment in public services, not new nuclear weapons: vote SNP.

The Tories and Labour argue over their police and security record.

Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle (4/5) could be in a bit of trouble fron local Chorley Tory girl Caroline Moon (10/11).

Scottish independence voting intention (YouGov): Yes: 38% (-1) No: 50% (+1).

Campaign Report: 3 Days to Go

Strong leadership is vital to keep the UK safe: Theresa May protected counter-terror police budgets as home secretary is providing funding for an uplift in the number of armed officers.

Theresa May cut 19,000 police officers and should resign in the wake of the London Bridge attacks.

The Tories are making wrong choices over police budgets, posturing over web surveillance powers and not putting enough pressure on allies in the Middle East to tackle extremist groups.

Labour must “stop making excuses for Muslims in Britain”.

If we have a Tory government, we’ll hold them to account. If we have a Labour government, we’ll hold their feet to the fire.

Scotland is not immune from terror but unlike other parts of the UK we have also maintained police numbers and increased armed policing.

Police cuts.

If you still agree with YouGov that there will be a hung parliament, pile in at 10/3.

Westminster voting intention: CON: 45% (-) LAB: 34% (-) LDEM: 8% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 3% (-) (ICM/ 02-04Jun).

Campaign Report: 6 Days to Go

Our 12-point plan for Brexit will help us provide certainty wherever we can as we approach the negotiations.

Our industrial strategy will drive growth across the whole of Britain and create a million good jobs.

We will not enter pacts, coalitions, or deals with anybody.

Craig Mackinlay should do the decent thing and endorse the Brexit candidate in South Thanet.

We are the party that defends free movement. It’s good for our economy, and enriches our society.

The real cost of voting Tory: child poverty, family incomes squeezed, pensions cut.

Craig Mackinlay charged.

Guido reckons you should put your pension on a Tory majority at 2/9.

Most capable Prime Minister: May: 50% (-11), Corbyn: 35% (+12) (IpsosMORI changes w/ April 2017).

Campaign Report: 7 Days to Go

Vote Conservative to help Theresa May fulfil the promise of Brexit.

Theresa May’s approach to Brexit risks a jobs meltdown across Britain, Labour would negotiate a tariff-free deal that benefits both sides.

Negotiating Brexit will be a task of monumental proportions which – even if handled expertly – will do great damage to our prosperity.

Sex ed should only include the “normal science” of reproduction and not obsess about gender queer theory.

Donald Trump’s pending announcement on the Paris Agreement is extremely worrying.

Ruth Davidson should apologise for delaying the launch of her manifesto to gain political advantage by moving it closer to polling day.

May: Help me fulfil promise of Brexit.

If you think YouGov’s shocking poll are right a hung parliament is 7/2 at the bookies.

London, who would make best Prime Minister? T. May: 34% J. Corbyn: 37% (YouGov).

Campaign Report: 8 Days to Go

More important than any TV debate, it will be Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn at the Brexit negotiating table just 11 days after the election. Only the Conservatives can be trusted with Brexit.

The fact that Theresa May has refused to debate Jeremy Corbyn in Cambridge tonight is another sign of her weakness.

Half a boiled egg, one slice of bread with 12 baked beans or 37.5 cornflakes: that’s the Tories’ 7p per pupil breakfast for schoolchildren.

Under Labour thousands of unskilled immigrants would threaten working class wages and jobs.

Failing to show up to tonight’s debate would show extreme cowardice from a Prime Minister resolutely avoiding proper scrutiny.

Tonight Amber Rudd must explain why she believes that the people of Scotland should entrust their future to the Tories.

Theresa May chickens out of tonight’s TV debate.

If you think YouGov’s shock poll is right a hung parliament is 9/2 at the bookies.

Percentage trust CON / LAB on: NHS 21/34, Economy 33/23, Brexit 36/16, Security 34/16, Immigration 25/19 (TNS UK).

Campaign Report: 9 Days to Go

Corbyn’s day of chaos lays bare the mess he would make of Brexit.

Labour’s universal childcare plan will transform the lives of more than a million children.

Our childcare policy is fully costed and will extend the 15 free hours to 2 year olds.

No obvious message.

The environment is the missing issue in this election. Only the Green Party have a vision for a sustainable Britain.

IndyRef2 at the “end of Brexit”.

Corbyn doesn’t know his numbers.

If you fear there could be a “Coalition of Chaos”, you can hedge yourself with a 40/1 bet on a Labour / LibDem / SNP coalition.

Tory lead down two points to 12 with ICM.

Campaign Report: 10 Days to Go

The choice is clear: low taxes with Theresa May or higher taxes with Jeremy Corbyn.

The choice at this election: Labour’s Brexit deal which puts jobs first, or a Tory Brexit for big business.

May’s approach to Brexit is a threat to national security.

Tories need to come clean on social care cap before election.

Launching our disability manifesto – highlighting the daily struggle disabled people continue to face & demanding empowerment for them.

June 8th is a choice. Let the Tories away with cuts to pensions or a strong voice for Scotland.

Not a lot really. Normal people enjoying the Bank Holiday.

They are calling the Bolsover constituency battle a story of Beauty (Helen Harrison) and the Beast (Dennis Skinner), if you fancy the Tory beauty to win she’s  5/1.

The latest YouGov/Sunday Times voting intention figures show the Conservatives on 43% and Labour on 36%, giving the Tories a 7 point lead. Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats are on 9%, with UKIP on 4%. Votes for other parties stand at 7%.

Campaign Report: 13 Days to Go

It is absolutely monstrous that Corbyn has attempted to justify or legitimise the actions of terrorists.

British foreign policy is to blame for terrorist attacks on the UK. A Labour vote is a vote against foreign interventionism.

Labour are wrong to make a political point out of the Manchester terror attack.

If the Tories got their way we would have ended up in Syria now, and it would have been even worse.

Corbyn is right that failed Western intervention has caused instability. Green MPs will push for a truly ethical foreign policy – and seriously scrutinise the march to war of any government.

The only people to blame for the bombing are the man who carried it out and anybody else who aided and abetted him, but we must have a proper debate about foreign policy.

Corbyn blames British foreign policy for the Manchester bombing.

They are calling the Bolsover constituency battle a story of Beauty (Helen Harrison) and the Beast (Dennis Skinner), if you fancy the Tory beauty to win she’s  5/1.

Best Prime Minister: T. May: 45% (-1) J. Corbyn: 28% (+5) Not sure: 27% (-4) (YouGov/24 – 25 May, changes w/ 16 – 17 May).

Campaign Report: 14 Days to Go

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

Our Britain Together manifesto: reduce net migration to zero within five years, ban the burka, no tax rises and bring back the dark blue British passport.

National campaign resumes tomorrow.

Scotland is the most attractive place in the UK outside London for foreign direct investment.

Theresa May warns Trump over US leaks.

If you think Labour are going to lose 50 plus seats take the under 179 seats at 5/6.

Welsh Westminster voting intention: LAB: 44% (+9), CON: 34% (-7), PC: 9% (-2), LDEM: 6% (-1), UKIP: 5% (+1) (via @YouGov / 18 – 21 May).

Terror Should Not Suppress Democracy

Guido agrees with Michael Crick, Mike Smithson and Iain Martin that the normal democratic processes should resume as soon as possible. This idea of suspending democracy out of respect is an ill thought out concept which politicians are reluctant to reject for fear of being seen as disrespectful. The terrorists deliberately attack during election campaigns precisely to get this kind of response and attention.

Talk of suspending campaigning until next week will give the enemies of democracy some satisfaction. We are of course all united against terror, party politics has been silenced for a day of reflection and a demonstration. Normal, peaceful, political hostilities should resume as soon as possible…

Campaign Report: 16 Days to Go

We are proposing the right funding model for social care and will ensure nobody has to sell their home to pay for care while alive, but we will consider introducing a cap.

The Tories offer nothing but uncertainty & fear for millions of older people with their dementia tax and social care u-turn.

So much for strong & stable: May’s dementia tax meltdown bodes badly for Brexit talks.

Theresa May is more ‘weak and wobbly’ than ‘strong and stable’ after her u-turn.

Our manifesto is the Green Guarantee: an economy for everyone, a protected environment, a ratification referendum on Brexit.

In this election the choice is stark: progress or just the same old Tories.

“Weak and wobbly” Theresa May u-turns on social care.

If you think Jeremy Corbyn is on a roll and going to be Prime Minister After the General Election it is 6/1.

CON: 47% (-1) LAB: 33% (+5) LDEM: 9% (-1) UKIP: 4% (-2) GRN: 2% (-1) (via ICMResearch / 19-21 May).

Campaign Report: 20 Days to Go

Vote Conservative for a stronger Scotland, a stronger Britain & a prosperous future.

The Tory Triple Whammy for pensioners: no triple lock, no winter fuel allowance, pay for social care using your own home.

The Tory plans on care are a Dementia Tax. Theresa May is hitting the most vulnerable. We would cap care costs at £72,00.

The Tories are planning to unleash the biggest tax raid in history on pensioner households. UKIP will fight this just as hard as we are fighting Philip Hammond’s plan for a national insurance attack on the self-employed.

We are absolutely in favour of spending £13 billion on foreign aid.

Theresa May today confirmed Scotland’s voice will not be heard in Brexit talks.

Nothing in particular.

In Blaenau Gwent the bookies have Plaid Cymru at 8/1. On the ground Labour’s vote collapsed during the locals. That is good value as an outside bet.

Scottish independence voting intention: Yes: 39% (-1) No: 49% (-) (YouGov/ 15 – 18 May).

Campaign Report: 21 Days to Go

Forward together to a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain that works for everyone.

The Tories are ditching pensioners. They stand to lose the pension guarantee, winter fuel allowance & control of their homes.

The nasty party is back! Theresa May has plans to scrap free school meals for Britain’s poorest children & a new death tax for the elderly.

It’s official: Theresa’s Tories have become the Labour Party.

Theresa May’s plans undermine the welfare state. A caring country should invest in social care not put the burden on those in greatest need.

Whilst the Tories scrap their promise to pensioners, we’re standing up for them. Vote for the SNP on June 8th.

Theresa May launches her manifesto for “mainstream Britain“.

The Hanretty model says there is a 100% probability that LibDem Norman Lamb will lose his North Norfolk seat to the Tories. Currently 4/7 for Tory win.

CON: 49% (-) LAB: 34% (+8) LDEM: 7% (-6) GRN: 3% (+2) UKIP: 2% (-2) (via IpsosMori)

Campaign Report: 22 Days to Go

Labour’s multibillion black hole manifesto shows they cannot be trusted to keep the economy stable.

Philip Hammond has dodged questions on whether ordinary people would face tax hike under Tory government. We challenge him to a televised debate.

Our manifesto is to change Britain’s future – the power is in your hands.

George Osborne’s editorial shows the Tories can’t be trusted on immigration.

The LibDems celebrate trebling tuition fees in their manifesto but claim to be on the side of students. Free education is a right.

We won’t let the Tories trade away Scotland’s jobs.

LibDem manifesto, rift between May and Hammond.

The Hanretty model says there is a 100% probability that LibDem Norman Lamb will lose his North Norfolk seat to the Tories. Currently 4/7 for Tory win.

On the renewal of the trident submarine system: Scotland Only Support: 26% Oppose: 40% (via PanelBaseMD).

Campaign Report: 23 Days to Go

Today confirms what we already knew: Jeremy Corbyn’s nonsensical ideas simply don’t add up.

Our manifesto is for the many, not the few.

We promise budding entrepreneurs a £100-a-week allowance to help with living costs.

Labour’s plan to tackle the decline of pubs will do anything but.

Labour’s Manifesto: A big step forward on a fairer economy. Some good, some bad on climate change. Weak on Europe. Terrible on Trident.

Ten years of SNP government has built a better Scotland.

Labour unveils a £48.6 billion spending manifesto, to be funded from extra tax revenue.

The LibDems can huff puff in Vauxhall all they like. Kate Hoey is remaining: back her at 1/3 and cash in.

Westminster voting intention (Wales): CON 41% LAB 35% PC 11% LD 7% UKIP 4% (Con lead over Lab +7, from -10 at GE2015, YouGov).

Campaign Report: 24 Days to Go

We will introduce the greatest extension of workers’ rights and protections of any Conservative government in history.

Our ‘New Deal’ for NHS staff: scrap the unfair pay cap, put safe staffing levels into law, bring back bursaries and fully fund education.

We will remove the public sector pay cap and implement a fully-costed £48 billion package for the NHS.

We challenge the Tories to call off their planned NICs raid on the self-employed and show they are not just the party of the rich.

We want SATs and the academies programme scrapped.

We have an opportunity in this election, not to strengthen Theresa May’s hand, but strengthen Scotland’s hand.

May meets unhappy Cathy.Overall Majority Tories, 1/25, NOC 10/1, Labour 20/1, LibDem 150/1

Electorate: Hard Leavers 45%, Re-Leavers 23%, Hard Remainers 22% (YouGov, April 24 – May 05).

Campaign Report: 27 Days to Go


The clear choice: A leader who supports our armed forces or one who wants to abolish them? Corbyn & your security is too big a risk.

The best defence for Britain is a government actively engaged in seeking peaceful solutions to the world’s problems.

Legalise cannabis.

The Tories will lead us to a soft Brexit. Don’t trust them.

The future is green – or not at all. We will always put the environment at the heart of everything we do.

Taxpayers in Scotland get the best deal anywhere in the UK,Vote SNP to protect Scotland from unnecessary Tory cuts.

Corbyn: “I’m not a pacifist”.

Over at Paddy Power’s Blog Guido is speculating on Chris Bryant’s troubles. Plaid Cymru to win the Rhondda at 11/10.

On British membership of the Eurovision Song Contest: Remain: 44% Leave: 56% (via YouGov / 08 – 09 May).

Campaign Report: 28 Days to Go

As Labour’s leaked manifesto reveals, Jeremy Corbyn wants to drag the UK backwards, but Theresa May will take the country forward.

Our manifesto means nobody is ignored, nobody is forgotten, nobody is left behind.

Today we announce a plan to take in 10,000 refugees each year of the next Parliament, while May refuses to help unaccompanied children.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Jo Swinson on Chris Rennard…

“Vince — and Tim before him — have repeatedly, publicly said Rennard is not welcome anywhere near their frontbench team, even as an adviser. I remain deeply frustrated that he was not expelled from the party through its disciplinary process. It just feels wrong, and I do not want Lord Rennard to continue as a member of the party. As far as I am concerned, he is not welcome.”

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