British Polling Council: “No Inquiry”

The official statement from the British Polling Council says although “… the final polls were not ideal, the BPC does not feel there is a need for another formal inquiry”:

“The polls proved very good at predicting the Conservative vote, with an average of the final polls being only 0.2% higher than the actual result… They did, however, prove much less good at predicting the Labour vote, with the pollsters’ average being 5.2% below Labour’s actual share. This is only the second election since 1987 when the pollsters have underestimated the Labour share. The average poll figure for the Liberal Democrats was very close, being only 0.3% different from the result.”

Guido has calculated the above accuracy league from the BPC statement. The official final polls as per the BPC (and the BBC) show that the pollsters were on average out by 1.97%. Which could easily be a decisive margin in a general election…

Data here spreadsheet monkeys.

mdi-timer 14th June 2017 @ 4:02 pm 14th Jun 2017 @ 4:02 pm mdi-comment Comments
Campaign Report: Final Day!

Back Theresa May and together we can make a success of Brexit and reignite the British spirit. Vote Conservative tomorrow.

Labour will build a Britain that works for the many, not the few. Vote Labour tomorrow.

Lend your vote to the LibDems to stop a Tory majority.

Cut immigration, a more secure Britain, NHS before foreign aid, protecting British culture, modern & fair democracy. Vote UKIP; Britain together.

Tomorrow, we urge you to vote with your heart. A Green vote changes the political climate.

Only voting SNP can ensure there are voices in Westminster standing up for Scotland and against Tory cuts.

On the day before the election Labour ditch Diane Abbott due to ‘sickness’.

Guido’s runners and riders for next Labour Party leader and his 7/1 tip for the top.

Final ICM/Guardian poll: Con 46% Lab 34% LibDems 7% Ukip 5% Greens 2%

mdi-timer 7th June 2017 @ 5:05 pm 7th Jun 2017 @ 5:05 pm mdi-comment Comments
Campaign Report: 1 Day to Election Day

If we get Brexit right, we can do great things as a country. Vote for me and my team to deliver a brighter future for everyone and reignite the British spirit.

We will change the funding formula for primary schools and to ensure free school meals for every primary school child.

Tonight we launch our manifesto for young people with a £6 billion infrastructure fund to repair schools across England.

Shut down radical mosques.

Until Donald Trump apologises to Sadiq Khan, he shouldn’t be allowed to have a state visit here.

End austerity, a real Living Wage of over £10, investment in public services, not new nuclear weapons: vote SNP.

The Tories and Labour argue over their police and security record.

Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle (4/5) could be in a bit of trouble fron local Chorley Tory girl Caroline Moon (10/11).

Scottish independence voting intention (YouGov): Yes: 38% (-1) No: 50% (+1).

mdi-timer 6th June 2017 @ 6:41 pm 6th Jun 2017 @ 6:41 pm mdi-comment Comments
Campaign Report: 3 Days to Go

Strong leadership is vital to keep the UK safe: Theresa May protected counter-terror police budgets as home secretary is providing funding for an uplift in the number of armed officers.

Theresa May cut 19,000 police officers and should resign in the wake of the London Bridge attacks.

The Tories are making wrong choices over police budgets, posturing over web surveillance powers and not putting enough pressure on allies in the Middle East to tackle extremist groups.

Labour must “stop making excuses for Muslims in Britain”.

If we have a Tory government, we’ll hold them to account. If we have a Labour government, we’ll hold their feet to the fire.

Scotland is not immune from terror but unlike other parts of the UK we have also maintained police numbers and increased armed policing.

Police cuts.

If you still agree with YouGov that there will be a hung parliament, pile in at 10/3.

Westminster voting intention: CON: 45% (-) LAB: 34% (-) LDEM: 8% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-) GRN: 3% (-) (ICM/ 02-04Jun).

mdi-timer 5th June 2017 @ 5:33 pm 5th Jun 2017 @ 5:33 pm mdi-comment Comments
Campaign Report: 6 Days to Go

Our 12-point plan for Brexit will help us provide certainty wherever we can as we approach the negotiations.

Our industrial strategy will drive growth across the whole of Britain and create a million good jobs.

We will not enter pacts, coalitions, or deals with anybody.

Craig Mackinlay should do the decent thing and endorse the Brexit candidate in South Thanet.

We are the party that defends free movement. It’s good for our economy, and enriches our society.

The real cost of voting Tory: child poverty, family incomes squeezed, pensions cut.

Craig Mackinlay charged.

Guido reckons you should put your pension on a Tory majority at 2/9.

Most capable Prime Minister: May: 50% (-11), Corbyn: 35% (+12) (IpsosMORI changes w/ April 2017).

mdi-timer 2nd June 2017 @ 6:07 pm 2nd Jun 2017 @ 6:07 pm mdi-comment Comments
Campaign Report: 7 Days to Go

Vote Conservative to help Theresa May fulfil the promise of Brexit.

Theresa May’s approach to Brexit risks a jobs meltdown across Britain, Labour would negotiate a tariff-free deal that benefits both sides.

Negotiating Brexit will be a task of monumental proportions which – even if handled expertly – will do great damage to our prosperity.

Sex ed should only include the “normal science” of reproduction and not obsess about gender queer theory.

Donald Trump’s pending announcement on the Paris Agreement is extremely worrying.

Ruth Davidson should apologise for delaying the launch of her manifesto to gain political advantage by moving it closer to polling day.

May: Help me fulfil promise of Brexit.

If you think YouGov’s shocking poll are right a hung parliament is 7/2 at the bookies.

London, who would make best Prime Minister? T. May: 34% J. Corbyn: 37% (YouGov).

mdi-timer 1st June 2017 @ 5:16 pm 1st Jun 2017 @ 5:16 pm mdi-comment Comments
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