UK Government Debt Reaches Same Size as Economy

After another £35.5 billion Sunak splurge in June, the UK’s debt has – not unexpectedly – finally reached the same size as the UK’s whole economy, at 99.6% of GDP. The highest debt to GDP ratio since 1961…

The UK’s debt now stands at £1.98 trillion, after figures show borrowing in the first quarter of the financial year was more than double the £55.4 billion seen in the whole of the previous year. The only tiny silver lining is that borrowing in June was lower than expected by most economists, and £10 billion less than May…

mdi-timer 21 July 2020 @ 10:00 21 Jul 2020 @ 10:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
GDP Recovers Just 1.8% in May After 19.1% Drop

New figures released this morning show GDP rose by just 1.8%, when the economic consensus having expected growth of between 5 and 6%. In the preceding three months GDP fell by 19.1%, taking the UK economy back to levels not seen since the early 2000s. The UK economy was nearly a quarter smaller in May than February…

The Chancellor’s response to the news was grim, saying “today’s figures underline the scale of the challenge we face.” The Treasury is pointing to the economic support package announced last week, which obviously will not have had an effect on May’s figures. The news, however, is not a great start and will make No. 10 jittery about how likely the recovery is to be sharply V-shaped. Not good…

mdi-timer 14 July 2020 @ 08:40 14 Jul 2020 @ 08:40 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
UK Economy Only Contracts by 2%

New figures published by the ONS this morning show the UK economy shrank by 2% in the first quarter of 2020, the biggest decline since Q4 of 2008, though less than the 2.5% experts had predicted; and March’s -5.8% being smaller than the expected 7.9% drop. Compared internationally, the UK holds up quite well. Though all countries will be bracing even harder for April’s figures…

The figures coincide with this morning’s Telegraph splash of internal Treasury estimates forecasting a £337 billion budget deficit by the end of this year – £282 billion higher than expected in the March Budget. In the base case scenario, the Treasury is advising Rishi Sunak he will have to increase taxes or cut spending to raise between £25–£30 billion a year.

In typical Treasury fashion, the Chancellor has been presented with options for raising taxes; with the leaked paper advising reliance on increasing income tax, National Insurance, VAT or corporation tax, or reform of pensions tax. Will Rishi want to go down in history as the top Tory tax-hiker?

mdi-timer 13 May 2020 @ 08:47 13 May 2020 @ 08:47 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
New GDP Month on Month Figures Show Growth of 0.3%

UK GDP grew by 0.3% in the three months to August 2019. Developing…

Commenting on today’s GDP figures, the ONS’ Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said:

“Growth increased in the latest three months, despite a weak performance across manufacturing, with TV and film production helping to boost the services sector.”

mdi-timer 10 October 2019 @ 09:32 10 Oct 2019 @ 09:32 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
UK Economy Grows 0.5% in Q1, Faster Than Eurozone

The ONS has released its latest GDP figures and the UK is up at a healthy 0.5% growth for Q1. Business investment was also up 0.5% q/q, while manufacturing growth surged to the highest in three decades at 2.2%. The Eurozone could only manage 0.4% GDP growth…

mdi-timer 10 May 2019 @ 10:23 10 May 2019 @ 10:23 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Growth Beats Expectations

Once again the UK posted stronger-than-forecast first quarter GDP after consensus economists were once again surprised by stronger than expected gains.

GDP gained 0.2% from January, when it jumped 0.5%, economists had expected output to flat-line. The pickup in February was broad based, with manufacturing rising 0.9% and construction gaining 0.4%. Good luck to remainers attibuting the rise in construction to “stockpiling”…

The trade deficit narrowed marginally in February. Exports rose and there was little evidence in the data of firms supposedly hoarding foreign goods in case of a no-deal Brexit, with imports falling in both value and volume terms. Pharma was an exception – suggesting there will be no interruption in supplies in the event of a no deal exit.

GDP grew at the fastest rate since 2017. Despite Brexit!

mdi-timer 10 April 2019 @ 09:54 10 Apr 2019 @ 09:54 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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