UK Grows 1.3% in 2018

The ONS has released its first estimate of GDP growth for 2018 Q4 at 0.2%, giving an initial figure of 1.3% growth for the year. A far cry from the recession that the Treasury, Bank of England and IMF were all predicting before the referendum…

Growth is sluggish across Europe, particularly in Italy and Germany – the UK is still comfortably in the middle of the road, with the European Commission itself putting the UK on a par with France and the Eurozone average for its 2019 forecast. If steady growth in the UK is all Brexit’s fault, what’s the EU’s excuse?

Project Fear Still Wrong

The UK economy continues to steadily grow, with the ONS’ latest growth figures showing GDP growth of 0.4% in the three months to October. This is a solid showing for the first set of growth data not to include July’s hot weather and World Cup-fuelled boost. Almost two-and-a-half years on and Project Fear 1.0 is still yet to materialise…

Brexit Britain Beating Eurozone Growth

GDP growth rates for this year’s second quarter are in, and despite uncertainty, Brexit Britain bowling along with impressive and better than expected 0.4% growth, double the rate of the first quarter, despite the noticeable ramp up in continuity project fear’s dire no-deal warnings. Meanwhile the Eurozone grew on average by 0.3%, and France by just 0.2%. It’s a good job we aren’t into the Eurozone…

GDP +0.4%, Up More Than Expected

ONS: 0.4% growth in GDP in Q3 with growth led by services, particularly IT, motor trades and retail.

It was expected to grow by 0.3%, so up more than predicted. Despite Brexit…

GDP Would Need to Collapse 5% in Next 12 Months to Meet Osborne’s Treasury Predictions

Worth reading the new growth figures in the context of the Treasury’s pre-referendum projections. HMT warned that in the two years following a Leave vote, the UK would enter recession with GDP falling by between 3.6% and 6%.

There has been growth in each quarter following the vote to leave: 0.6% in Q3 2016, 0.6% in Q4 2016, 0.2% in Q1 2017 and 0.3% in Q2 2017. That means to meet Project Fear’s two-year prediction, GDP has to fall by over 5% in the next 12 months. Let’s see…

UK GDP Beats Predictions and Exports Up… Again!

UK GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2016 has been revised higher this morning to +0.7%, higher than the expected +0.6%. The Office for National Statistics revealed export growth of 4.1%, which alongside a fall in imports of 0.4% means net trade added 1.3% to growth. Brexit Britain’s boom continues to defy the ‘experts’…

Bank of England Revises Up Growth Forecast, Again

The pessimists at the Bank of England slashed their growth forecasts almost immediately after the Brexit vote. The economy proved resilient, prompting an upwards revision from 0.8% to 1.4% in November. Today on the BoE’s Super Thursday the Bank yet again revises up its 2017 GDP growth forecast to 2%. Obviously this beats the predictions of all city economists. Michael Fish eat your heart out

Bank of England Rubbish Osborne’s Brexit Fibs

osborne balls

George Osborne’s claims that voting to Leave would cause interest rates to rise and a year-long recession have been demolished by the Bank of England. Osborne’s Treasury forecast of the two years following a Leave vote predicted GDP at between -3% and -6%. Today’s Bank of England numbers forecast GDP unchanged at 2% for 2016, dropping to 0.8% in 2017 and rising again to 1.8% in 2018. They have cut interest rates and said there will be no recession.

Osborne also claimed unemployment would rise 2.4 points to 7.3%. The Bank of England forecasts an unemployment rate of 5.6%. This is what the Treasury was threatening:

osbo

The Bank of England now say this was all nonsense. Final proof the Remain campaign were fibbing all the way to the ballot box…

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Quote of the Day

Ken Livingstone deployed a corker on TalkRadio this afternoon…
“I joined the Labour Party 50 years ago this month and in all that time I have never heard a single anti-semitic comment.”

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