The ONS have released GDP numbers for the third quarter this year – a fat zero. The economy keeps flatlining as decreases in the service sector cancelled out minor growth in construction activity. GDP actually fell by 0.03% in Q3, though the ONS has rounded that out…
Markets were actually expecting a 0.1% decrease in Q3 and no one is predicting meaningful growth will return in the near future. Meanwhile, an extra 1.2 million people are getting dragged into the claws of HMRC through savings rates. HMRC are complaining they don’t have enough resources to cope. Guido can think of a few tax cuts to ease their burden…
Much to the relief of Rishi Sunak and the second of his five pledges, the UK economy grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2023. According to figures published today by the ONS, this came off the back of a solid 0.5% growth in the month of June – which was mainly down to 1.5% growth in the production sector. The latest update leaves the economy performing better than expected, after the Bank of England pencilled in 0.1% growth for the quarter.
With the economy now (barely) growing and inflation showing signs of slowing, the prospects of the Prime Minister’s pledges are looking better than just months ago. Though, debt is still up, waiting lists are at a new record high and the boats aren’t stopping. All eyes now on the all-important inflation stats, due for publication next week…
The UK Economy expanded by 0.2% in April, following a 0.3% fall in March. This is largely thanks to the services sector, which saw 0.3% growth. In the three months to April, GDP did grow – though only by 0.1%. Rishi did just promise to grow the economy, he never said it would be anything impressive. With Gilt markets spiking and a stagnant economy, Guido again finds himself asking: where’s the growth plan?
Elsewhere, another of Rishi’s pledges is no longer looking so assured. After 87 migrants were detected on the 10th and a new 2023 record of 616 on the 11th, the 12th saw 545 migrants make the crossing.
More migrants were detected in the last two days of data than in the entire month of March…
The ONS released the GDP numbers today for February – a big fat zero per cent.
“Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in February 2023, where falls in services and production were offset by growth in construction. This follows growth of 0.4% in January, revised up from growth of 0.3% in the previous publication.”
Which means GDP has grown by a miserable 0.1% in the last three months. The government simply has no sense of urgency about this. People are crying out for homes to be built, yet Tory MPs are held hostage by noisy constituents, so put their personal electoral prospects ahead of the interests of the next generation. Instead of boosting the economy and encouraging growing profitable businesses, the government has increased their taxes.
Monthly GDP is estimated by the ONS to have grown by 0.1% in November 2022, which is slightly better than expected. Monthly GDP is now estimated to still be 0.3% below its pre-pandemic levels 3 years later. For the quarter GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022. Unless there is a growth spurt the UK is likely to be officially in recession next month…
UPDATE: Sam Miley, Senior Economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, comments
“The UK economy unexpectedly grew in November, driven by an expansion in the services sector. Beneath the headline growth, there remains evidence of various headwinds impacting the economy, with a sharp monthly decline in manufacturing output being accompanied by a flatlining construction sector. Despite monthly growth in both October and November, a quarterly contraction in Q4 is still a possibility. In addition to continuing consumer and business pressures, the wave of industrial action witnessed at the end of 2022 will also have a downward effect on December’s GDP figures.”
This morning’s dismal revised ONS GDP data revealed that
- UK GDP fell by a revised 0.3% in Q3 (previously estimated to be a 0.2% decline).
- GDP is now at 0.8% below pre-pandemic levels (revised down from prior estimate of 0.4% below).
- Household spending dropping by 1.1% after inflation in Q3.
Liz Truss, despite the now prevailing derision towards her, was right: growth is more important than balancing the books in the short term. Guido doesn’t get the feeling that Sunak or Starmer are prioritising economic growth above political positioning. Britain will almost certainly be in recession in 2023 – what’s the growth plan?
Rishi says the illegal migrants issue is getting his focus in Downing Street, “I do think that the absolute priority that the British people have right now, as do I, is to grip illegal migration… I can tell you that I’ve spent more time working on that than anything else…”. Guido disagrees with his sense of priority. Economic decline is impacting on everyone’s living standards and the latest Ipsos MORI survey confirms people are far more concerned about the economy than immigration. We need to prioritise getting a grip on growth.
