Michael Gove is reportedly conspiring with Gordon Brown to jointly head off the SNP’s demands for another referendum. As a consequence Brown is back in the spotlight making a bogus case for a constitutional boondoggle of a “Commission on Democracy” that would “review the way the whole United Kingdom is governed”. This is transparently a ruse to delay any revisiting of the legitimate question of Scotland’s independence.

On Sky News this morning when Niall Paterson accused Gordon Brown of deceiving Scottish voters in the previous referendum over “the vow”, Gordon Brown denied saying the specific quotes attributed to him by the presenter and then claimed bizarrely “they should read the small print”. Guido’s video above shows Brown making the very deceptive claims he denied making. He lied to them in the last referendum, he lied to them this morning. Why should Scots believe him now?

The SNP are riding high in the polls and the unionist Tory-Labour coalition is looking likely to be in the minority at the polls. A narrow (49% versus 48%) majority of even Scottish Tory voters tell YouGov they would be “pleased” or “not bothered” if Scotland left the UK. Is Gordon really the right man to convince them that wasting years and millions on a Commission is really worthwhile? The promise of a Commission is an obvious con, they don’t need to read the small print on this…

The ‘Yes’ option in a hypothetical second Scexit referendum has seen a 7 point lead drop down to just 2 points (don’t knows included) in one month, according to Survation’s latest poll. This in a month when coronavirus cases are rising, Brexit talks are on the brink of No Deal, and Sturgeon is holding daily propaganda briefings gifted by television news channels. Perhaps break up of the Union is not the inevitability some like to think it is after all…

Separately, IpsosMORI also has the Tories up four points to 41%, wiping out Labour’s lead. Is British exceptionalism on the vaccine rollout finally paying electoral dividends to the Tories?

According to YouGov polling 20% of voters for the Conservative and Unionist Party would be pleased to see Scotland independent and 29% would not be bothered if it happened. A total of 49% are unfazed by the prospect of Scottish independence. Only a minority of Tory voters (48%) would be upset. That means Tories are more sympathetic to Scottish independence than the average voter. When asked how they would feel about Scotland leaving, only 15% of English people and 16% of Welsh people saying they would be pleased to see the back of Scotland.

Ironically, given the party leadership’s staunch pro-union stance, it is Tory voters who are the most likely to say they would be pleased for Scotland to break away (apart from SNP voters of course). 59% of Labour voters support the union…

YouGov data tables.

Michael Gove raised eyebrows last night, when openly interacting with George Galloway, and seemingly publicly suggesting the Government’s latest tactic to keep the union together as yet more polls show a clear Scottish preference for independence. Giving Scots in England, Wales and Northern Ireland voting rights in any IndyRef2…

Taking to Twitter, the former Respect Party leader argued:

“IF there’s to be a second IndyRef, then 795,000 Scots living elsewhere in the UK MUST have a vote. If UK expats can vote in General Elections from Spain then an existential question like Separatism MUST be answered by all Scots.”

To which the Chancellor of the Duchy mused “interesting question”. 

A Scottish Tory MP emphatically promised Guido that Gove was “just musing out loud”, absolutely sticking to the edict that there is zero prospect of a second referendum and no thought is being given to gaming the rules in the growing eventuality of one. Guido’s not so sure Downing Street is as emphatic as their Scottish MP contingent. Last week, a No. 10 SpAd agreed the UK can’t afford to go into a referendum with independence ahead in the polls – sounds like thoughts are being given…

Poll aggregation from Scotland in Numbers has revealed on the latest polling the Union is looking very weak. A majority of Scots appear to support separatism, while the issue is on a knife edge in both England and Northern Ireland – which both cling to 51% support for the union. Just Wales looks secure – with 68% of voters in favour of the UK. State of the Union? Weak.

A new Scottish YouGov poll released last night will make glum reading for unionists. The SNP are set to achieve a stonking 57% in the constituency vote for the Holyrood elections, as well as 47% on the proportional regional list vote. Taken together, this would give the party 74 seats out of 129. No party has ever before won more than 69 seats in the parliament…

The Scottish Tory vote share stands at 20% and 21% for constituencies and lists respectively, while Scottish Labour trails at just 14% in both. Scottish Labour leader and Corbynite relic Richard Leonard had the worst approval rating of any leader, standing at -27%. With Labour’s Scotland problem getting worse, not better, Guido is surprised Sir Keir hasn’t spent more time north of the border…

In line with other recent polls, YouGov found support for Scottish independence to stand at at 53%, compared to 47% for the Union. Westminster, take note.