Rishi’s been down in Dover this morning, making some big claims to launch his small boots policy. Before Guido does his public service duty of independently verifying Rishi’s statistics, it’s worth reminding co-conspirators what the Prime Minister had to say:

“In the five months since I launched the plan, crossings are now down 20 per cent compared to last year. This is the first time, since this problem began, that arrivals between January and May have fallen compared to the year before”.

In 9,607 migrants were detected in May-June 2022, compared to 7,610 this year – a decrease of 20.7%. It’s the first time statistics have recorded a fall across this period. Unsurprisingly, sum-loving Sunak got his maths right…

However, it’s not all smooth sailing for Rishi’s small boats policy statistics. Migrant crossings did increase over two months, February and April, relative to last year. Moreover, Channel crossings in April and May were higher than they had been in the first three months of this year – when Rishi announced his pledges. Guido will let co-conspirators decide for themselves if the government is doing enough to “Stop the Boats”…

One positive sign is that no small boats crossings have been detected so far in June. It’s still early days.

Chris Patten was wheeled out on Question Time last night and displayed all the lucidity to be expected from a 79 year-old Europhile. At the start of a diatribe on, you guessed it, Brexit, the Chancellor of Oxford University came up with some dubious claims. He first had this to say about Britain’s GDP per Capita:

“Our GDP per capita now… is lower for heaven’s sake than Lithuania”.

It sounds questionable… because it’s not true.

According to the IMF’s 2023 forecast, Britain’s GDP per Capita (at purchasing power parity) is $56,471, Lithuania’s sat on $49,266. Britain’s nominal GDP was forecast at $46,371; and Lithuania’s was $28,094. A mere 40% lower…

Chris’s confusion didn’t end there, as he then took a leaf out of the Keir Starmer playbook to talk down Britain’s prosperity relative to Poland:

“The poorest 20% in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20% in Poland”.

Guido isn’t quite sure where Chris found this figure, although data from the Financial Times, extending to 2021, showed this couldn’t be further from the truth. British households are better off than their Polish counterparts across every percentile.

You would expect a better grasp of facts from the Chancellor of Oxford University…

Sadiq Khan has had to fess up to his disinformation. Tony Devenish asked the Mayor about an inaccurate tweet, first fact-checked by Guido, and offered this response:

“This tweet was based on research published in a well-known and reputable national newspaper. Following further analysis from City Hall’s air quality research team the tweet was deleted. We are committed to ensuring the information we provide Londoners with is as accurate as possible… social media posts are signed off by senior policy and Mayor’s office staff”

Senior policy and Mayor’s office staff should hold higher standards than unquestioningly repeating newspaper claims. The Mayor claims to be committed to the provision of accurate information, and yet the impact of his debunked claim is still on show. A quick Google search reveals a range of unquestioning coverage of the Mayor’s claims, including from Time Out. If Sadiq really wants to tackle London’s pollution, he should start with his own press office.

It wouldn’t be Christmas without doom-laden headlines about Coronavirus. Yesterday the Guardian published scary new data headlined “Number of people in hospital with Covid in England rises 22% in a week”.  22% sounds high. Is it time to dust off those face masks?

According to the NHS data in the Guardian piece, 6,720 people were in hospital with Covid on 14 December, up from 5,501 the week before. The key point, however, is this, buried towards the bottom of the story:

“Some patients in hospital with Covid are likely to have been admitted for a different reason”.

Some? The Office for National Statistics data for this week shows that around 65% of Covid hospitalisation patients are actually being treated primarily for something else. They just happen to have tested positive. Stand down. No need to renew your Joe Wicks subscription or start baking banana bread at home again…

Chris Bryant is the chair of the Commons Committee on Standards. It is his job to uphold standards in the House and oversee investigations into other members for breaking rules. While confronting Boris at the Liaison Committee in 2021, Bryant slammed the then-PM for failing to correct the record:

“When a minister lies, they should correct the record, I presume you agree… It seems that you very rarely correct the record. Why is that?”

On the evening of Wednesday 19 October, Chris Bryant stood up in the Commons and told MPs the following as a matter of fact:

“As you know, Members are expected to be able to vote without fear or favour and the behaviour code, which is agreed by the whole House, says that there shall never be bullying or harassment of Members. I saw Members being physically manhandled into another Lobby and being bullied.”

On the BBC later that night he ramped up this rhetoric, saying what he saw was “clear bullying”.

Today’s report by the Speaker, summarising the testimony of those involved and with a good vantage point, rejects this claim entirely.

Lindsay Hoyle says, “While there was some physical contact between Members, there is no evidence from our investigation that this was any more than a gesture of comfort”.

Will the ever-virtuous Bryant follow his own advice and correct the record forthwith?

As the government plans to lift the ban on fracking, Labour was quick to issue a press release condemning their action in quite vociferous terms. Guido is happy to cut through the bluster and rhetoric of each claim in Miliband’s statement, so you don’t have to:

• “We now have an energy policy run for big fossil fuel interests not for the British people. No to the windfall tax and yes to dangerous, unsafe fracking.”

FALSE: This statement is unsubstantiated and untrue. Fracking is in the best interests of the British people because it will create up to 64,500 jobs and up to £80 billion in tax revenue and reduce reliance on foreign imported energy. It is also safe, especially under the conditions of the existing regulatory framework. The government, of course, has already imposed a £5 billion windfall tax on energy companies. Guido isn’t quite sure how siphoning off profits from “big fossil fuel” companies is in their interests…

• “Fracking is a dangerous fantasy”

FALSE: Fracking is neither dangerous, nor a fantasy. Over the last 40 years over 200 wells have been hydraulically fractured in the UK. It is also used in the United States, where it contributes 0.2% of GDP secures their energy needs and helped make them an energy exporter for the first time in decades.

•  “it would do nothing to cut energy bills”

FALSE: Although the effect of UK fracking could be marginal, providing more energy supply would obviously lower costs. This has been evidenced in the United States, where fracking has helped secure energy security.

• “it costs far more than renewables”

FALSE: A 2018 paper estimated the lifetime costs of various sources of UK energy. At both low and average power plant costs, the life cycle costs of fracking (2.1 and 9.6 pence/KWh) are cheaper than hydro (14.4 pence/KWh), solar (16.9 pence/KWh) and both onshore (12.6 pence/KWh) and offshore wind (10.1 pence/KWh).

• “it is deeply unpopular with the public.”

FALSE: Although evidence is mixed, polling has previously shown significant support for fracking. It is certainly unfair to call it “deeply unpopular”.

Miliband finished by claiming:

“The Conservatives have broken yet another manifesto promise, this time on banning fracking. Now Conservative MPs must explain to their own constituents why they will have to suffer the danger of fracking in their own back yard.”

Clearly Ed has discovered his inner NIMBY. He also conveniently fails to mention the manifesto provision for fracking to be resumed should it be found safe, as the government is investigating. Disappointing, even by Labour’s standards…