Wikipedia economist Rachel Reeves has just told pool cameras that interest rate rises, which began in December 2021, are somehow the direct consequence of Liz Truss’s mini-Budget. A mini-Budget produced a full ten months later.

“Liz Truss’s mini-budget last year set in motion the economic turmoil and the increases in interest rates that we’ve experienced here in the UK.”

Truss, when not busy time travelling back to 2021, is also apparently responsible for the US economy as well. Today the US Federal Reserve held their interest rate range at 5.25%-5.5%. Guido will save Rachel the Googling and tell her 5.5 is a bigger number than 5.25. Asked about this on camera, Reeves simply ignored the question and talked about growth. A topic which has landed her in hot water before…

Jeremy Hunt is continuing to fend off pressure to cut taxes at Tory Conference, claiming yesterday that they would “compromise” the fight against inflation. Left-wingers are known to argue that tax cuts are inflationary but the facts don’t bear out. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.

When taxes are cut people will buy more goods and services at the already elevated prices. Meanwhile, wealthier families save the extra money to invest. Disposable income has not been shown to affect inflation. Even the £10 billion cost of living package had almost no effect.

Tax cuts that stimulate production, for example in corporation tax, will be anti-inflationary. As inflation is caused by a growing amount of money chasing a reducing amount of goods and services, then tax cuts that stimulate production will bring the level of inflation down by increasing supply. It’s basic economics… the main reason we don’t have tax cuts is because the government doesn’t want to cut spending.

Another lively Question Time show last night, with Tory MP Johnny Mercer and Labour’s Bridget Phillipson at each other’s throats over Just Stop Oil. Dale Vince, the tree-hugging multimillionaire who happens to bankroll both the Labour Party and the eco-zealots, was sat right next to them…

Mercer lit a fuse by claiming Labour “get funded by Just Stop Oil“, with a furious Phillipson immediately demanding he retract the “categorically untrue” claim. Of course, it is categorically true they take money from the same man…

The heated exchange between Sir Chris Bryant and Rishi Sunak today led Bryant to get muddled with his facts in his attempt to condemn the PM.

Whilst bashing Rishi for failing to pay Parliament – and specifically the Kangaroo Court Privileges Committee – sufficient respect, Bryant claimed that Wes Streeting had made the vote, even after attending the same charity event as Rishi that evening. Wes did not vote on the Privileges Committee’s report…

He gave Rishi a further telling off by claiming the report was only “about 3 pages long” – making the fairly significant oversight that the report is, in fact, fourteen pages long. Looks like Sir Chris Bryant should correct the record…

UPDATE: Chris Bryant tweets a clarification

The Report itself is 4 1/2 pages long. There is also a cover page; a copyright page; a contents page; an Annex to the Report (4 pages); minutes of the Committee (1 page) and a list of reports to the Committee (1 page). https://t.co/1JSQYPHmRE

— Chris Bryant (@RhonddaBryant) July 4, 2023

He hasn’t yet responded to this question

Did you attend a lockdown drinks party in Rosie Winterton's parliamentary office Chris Bryant @RhonddaBryant?

— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) July 4, 2023

Rachel Reeves has, again, been caught out using dodgy stats. In the Commons last week, Rachel claimed “average mortgage payments will be going up by a crippling £2,900 this year”. She doubled down on it again this week, saying”millions of homeowners” will face the same increase – a hefty sum…

Turns out, it’s also an incorrect one. According to Full Fact, the Shadow Chancellor was referencing figures from the Resolution Foundation – figures which do not reflect the average mortgage increase in one year for homeowners generally. The number, in fact, represents the average increase specifically to households with fixed-rate mortgages expiring in 2024, on the assumption that they go on to remortgage with another fixed deal of similar length. According to the Resolution Foundation, those with fixed rate mortgages expiring in 2023 and 2024 account for under half of all UK mortgage holders.

This isn’t even the only time the party has repeated the claim. Starmer twice referenced the statistic – albeit less specifically – at PMQs, and the party have also forked out to plaster the claim all over social media through paid for advertising. Guido wonders whether or not they will attempt to defuse the situation…

Rishi’s been down in Dover this morning, making some big claims to launch his small boots policy. Before Guido does his public service duty of independently verifying Rishi’s statistics, it’s worth reminding co-conspirators what the Prime Minister had to say:

“In the five months since I launched the plan, crossings are now down 20 per cent compared to last year. This is the first time, since this problem began, that arrivals between January and May have fallen compared to the year before”.

In 9,607 migrants were detected in May-June 2022, compared to 7,610 this year – a decrease of 20.7%. It’s the first time statistics have recorded a fall across this period. Unsurprisingly, sum-loving Sunak got his maths right…

However, it’s not all smooth sailing for Rishi’s small boats policy statistics. Migrant crossings did increase over two months, February and April, relative to last year. Moreover, Channel crossings in April and May were higher than they had been in the first three months of this year – when Rishi announced his pledges. Guido will let co-conspirators decide for themselves if the government is doing enough to “Stop the Boats”…

One positive sign is that no small boats crossings have been detected so far in June. It’s still early days.