Starmer gave Macron a lovely gift at the Elysee Palace today – a means for the French President to wear his support for the UK’s cross channel migrants policy on his sleeve. On both sleeves of the Arsenal 23/24 Home Shirt, which has had Macron’s name specially printed on the back, are the words of the sponsor: “VISIT RWANDA.” Guido looks forward to seeing Macron sporting this fine message…
Jeremy Hunt was obviously chuffed with the childcare reforms in today’s budget: £600 incentives for new childminders, 30 hours of free childcare for every child over the age of 9 months by 2025, subsidised childcare for those on Universal Credit paid upfront. A lot of demand-inducing tinkering. Unless you are a foster carer, in which case the tax free allowance has gone up to £18,000 – tax-efficient parents should swap their kids with the neighbours’…
Guido would suggest borrowing from our esteemed European neighbours. As Madeline Grant points out, in France, parents of two children only hit the top tax bracket when household income reaches €250,000, while the childless hit it at under €100,000. French family taxation is based on the number of adults and children within the household, rather than on the parents individually. Policy Exchange say that “at an annual income of £30,000, a UK household currently pays £3,250 in tax with an actual tax rate (ATR) of 11%. Under the French principle of quotient familial, that same household would pay no tax (an ATR of 0%)”. Making babies tax deductible is a sexy policy.
If a UK household earns £70,000, they currently pay £15,500 in annual tax with an ATR of 22%. Applying the French principle would save the same family £9,000. Even in the US, Obama gave parents a $1,000 tax break per child in 2010. This would also benefit stay-at-home mums (or dads) who choose to look after their own children rather than to farm them out to strangers in order to boost GDP. Childcare policy in the UK is framed in terms of what is good for the economy rather than what is good for children and family life. Tax deductible children would please the squeezed middle-classes during tough economic times… who knows they might even vote for a party that puts it in the manifesto.
Emmanuel Macron is set to face Marine Le Pen, exit polls predict 28% and 23% respectively of the vote in the first round, according to projections by polling institute Ipsos.
Left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon comes in third, with 20% of the vote. Zemmour got 7% and conservative Valérie Pécresse from Les Républicains 5%. Which implies 20% of the also ran vote was to the left and 12% to the right. Whether those votes transfer directly is questionable, much of the left-wing vote will stay home and some centre-right voters will back Macron rather than Le Pen. How much decides the result…
After the long-running speculation was all-but confirmed yesterday afternoon, Michel Barnier has launched a bid to become the next President of France. While we knew he would aim for the centre-right Republican’s candidacy, Barnier’s gone in hard on immigration, promising to “limit and have control over immigration”. Has he signed up for Cummings’ Substack consultancy services?
“In these grave times, I have taken the decision and have the determination to stand… and be the president of a France that is reconciled, to respect the French and have France respected”
Specifically, Barnier would implement a five-year ban on immigration and, unbelievably, “reform the EU” to curb regulations and bureaucracy. We’re through the looking glass now, mes ami…
France’s statistics agency this morning cut its measure of GDP at the start of the year, showing the €uro area’s second largest economy slipped into a recession for the second time during the pandemic. Emmanuel Macron will be looking enviously at Brexit Britain’s imminent bounce back boom…
In March 2018, in a little noticed move, the Ministry of Defence announced that £12.7 million had been allocated from the EU Exit Preparedness Fund to HMS Severn and her two sister ships, a precaution in case they should they be required to control and enforce UK waters and fisheries following Brexit. This now looks to have been a wise precaution…
The French threat to blockade Jersey would cut off medical supplies and food on top of a now withdrawn threat to cut the supply of electrical power to the population of Jersey. These are hostile threats verging on a siege by France. A robust response from the Royal Navy is exactly what is required…
