Today’s By-Elections: The Numbers

In 2010 UKIP decided not to run a candidate against Douglas Carswell, clearing the way for the Tories to beat Labour by 53% to 25% and hand Carswell a majority of 12,068. Some last minute jitters/expectation management in Clacton from a source close to Carswell suggest he is nowhere near the 32 point lead given to him by Lord Ashcroft’s most recent poll in the constituency. UK Polling Report‘s demographics show Clacton has a high proportion of over 65s, a high proportion not in work and very low numbers of ethnic minorities:

Meanwhile up in Heywood and Middleton:

Labour are on course for a comfortable hold despite a party aide today telling the Staggers Miliband’s attitude to the constituency has been “deeply frustrating” and that they are “completely out of touch” with the concerns of local voters. Even the uninspiring Liz McInnes should be able to defend the late Jim Dobbin’s 5,971 majority. Here are the demographics from UK Polling Report:

We should have the results in the early hours…

mdi-timer 9th October 2014 @ 11:25 am 9th Oct 2014 @ 11:25 am mdi-comment Comments
There Has Been No Global Warming For Past 18 Years

Today is an inconvenient anniversary for greenies: as of 1 October there have been 18 years with no global warming. Weather satellite data collected by the Earth System Science Centre at the University of Alabama shows the earth’s temperature has “plateaued” since this day in 1996. Its director Dr John Christy says:

“The fact that no one predicted what’s happened in the past 18 years indicates we have a long way to go to understand the climate system. And that the way the predictions were wrong were all to one direction, which means the predictions or the science is biased in one direction, toward overcooking the atmosphere… Our ignorance is simply enormous when it comes to the climate system, and our understanding is certainly not strong and solid enough to make policy about climate because we don’t even know what it’s going to do”

The same climate activists who don’t want to talk about this data are moaning that Dave cut the green crap from his conference speech today…

mdi-timer 1st October 2014 @ 4:35 pm 1st Oct 2014 @ 4:35 pm mdi-comment Comments
More Evidence of Jonah Brown Cursing the Union

aw-gf-gb-sky

Last week Guido pointed out the negative impact that the former Prime Mentalist was having on the No campaign’s poll ratings after getting involved late in the referendum. Yesterday’s YouGov bombshell shows the Jonah effect with even greater clarity. While many may dismiss this a terrible coincidence, they should note it is Scottish Labour support that is haemorrhaging to the optimism of the Yes campaign.  These are precisely the people to whom the former Prime Mentalist is talking. 

The good news for fighters for Scottish freedom is that Better Together have decided to deploy Gordon and both Ed Miliband and Ed Balls this week. ALBA GU BRÀTH! 

mdi-timer 8th September 2014 @ 12:14 pm 8th Sep 2014 @ 12:14 pm mdi-comment Comments
Today’s Outstanding Contribution to Statistical Excellence

It seems Guido has a challenger in the statistical excellence stakes. We suggest that Ally McCoist and Rangers FC nominate themselves for a Royal Statistical Society award next year:

Even the LibDems would be proud of that one.

mdi-timer 7th August 2014 @ 5:16 pm 7th Aug 2014 @ 5:16 pm mdi-comment Comments
Guido Commended by Royal Statistical Society

Guido is honoured to have been commended by the Royal Statistical Society at the Statistical Excellence in Journalism Awards today. Commenting on this blog’s data journalism over the last year, specifically our exposé on gender inequality at the patriarchal CLASS think tank and how the Guardian uses the word “scrounger” more than any other paper, the Royal Statistical Society praised our:

“commitment to using statistics to question, analyse and investigate the issues that affect society at large”

Guido looks forward to providing his readers with a similarly high standard of data journalism in the year ahead…

mdi-timer 3rd July 2014 @ 12:47 pm 3rd Jul 2014 @ 12:47 pm mdi-comment Comments
Misery Index: Summer is Coming

A weekend heatwave, wall to wall sunshine and even a slight drop in unemployment – it’s no wonder we are all so happy. This is one of the most joyous months we have had under this government, with the Retail Prices Index staying at 2.5%, more people in work and a three day weekend awaiting us. There has however been a rise in the Public Sector Net Cash Requirement, meaning we are not quite as happy as our happiness peak in February this year. The clear trend of decline in misery since February 2011 remains…

N.B. stats bods can check Guido’s adding up here.
mdi-timer 20th May 2014 @ 12:34 pm 20th May 2014 @ 12:34 pm mdi-comment Comments
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