MP Referendum List: Latest Update

Penny Mordaunt is set to campaign to leave the EU, reports the Sunsomething readers of Guido’s MP referendum list already knew. (The Speccie’s list had her down as an Inner.) This morning the BBC are claiming as an exclusive the news that new Tory backbencher Will Quince will vote to Leave. He was of course down as an Outer on Guido’s list days ago.

Click here to view the entire spreadsheet.

Since Guido published his crowd-sourced list of how MPs will be voting, several have been in touch to emphasise that they have not declared. We expect the down-tick of Tory MPs for Out to continue as past Leavers change their minds. You can get in touch with amendments by using this form

mdi-timer 19th February 2016 @ 10:48 am 19th Feb 2016 @ 10:48 am mdi-comment Comments
No, Britain Has Not Accepted Just 216 Syrian Refugees

The claim that Britain has accepted a mere 216 Syrian refugees has gone viral on social media, being shared thousands and thousands of times by worthy types who retweet without fact-checking. Just one problem: it’s nonsense.

Official government figures show that we had 1,688 asylum applications from Syrians in 2014, and a further 2,204 in 2015. The grant rate of 87% suggests some 3,400 Syrian refugees have come to Britain in the last two years, with around another 2,000 being accepted in 2011 and 2012. Whether you think that is enough is another question, but the true figure is more than is being claimed…

H/T @mjhsinclair/@FullFact
mdi-timer 3rd September 2015 @ 11:58 am 3rd Sep 2015 @ 11:58 am mdi-comment Comments
Truth About MP’s Online Adultery Account

ashley madison michelle

Following the revelation that an email address belonging to SNP MP Michelle Thomson was used by somebody to sign up to adultery website Ashley Madison, Guido asked a highly trained data monkey – Jeremy Bullock from Centrix Software – to take a forensic look at all the available information related to the account. Here’s what he found…

1. The email address is flagged as invalid
2. The account was last updated on 30/04/2015 19:06:57
3. The postcode given was EH12 7AF
4. Date of Birth 01/01/1978
5. Her nickname was stated as ‘michsnp’ rather than the usual prosaic variety
6. The sign up ip address was 81.98.177.38
7. There is no data in the am_am.member table. This records preferences, looking for, etc etc and is the definitive record for signup
8. There are no credit card transactions recorded for her

From the data it seems evident that someone other than Michelle Thomson signed up for the account. Definitely a prank…

mdi-timer 21st August 2015 @ 3:08 pm 21st Aug 2015 @ 3:08 pm mdi-comment Comments
No, Corbynmania is Not “Sweeping the Nation”

“A movement is born,” claimed Jezza’s unofficial PR man Owen Jones last week: “across the nation, in every village and town and city you can see this movement emerging”. The hyperbole is even more generous in Owen’s interview with the man himself today: “in the last few weeks Corybnmania has swept across the country”. Well, has it?

The latest figures show there are around 270,000 Labour members.

In addition, around 70,000 have joined as affiliated supporters.

50,000 are so-called ‘registered supporters’.

A total of 390,000 people.

The voting age population of the UK is 50,780,423.

If we (generously) assume that around half of all those affiliated with the Labour Party support Corbyn – 195,000 people – then what proportion of the voting population is a Corbynista? Just 0.38%. 

Hardly sweeping the country…

mdi-timer 10th August 2015 @ 4:01 pm 10th Aug 2015 @ 4:01 pm mdi-comment Comments
Londoners Look to Driverless Tubes

The tube strike is over and, courtesy of Google Trends, Techno can provide some insight into what Londoners thought of the £50,000-a-year drivers who made them late for work. Searches for “driverless trains” rocketed over the last 24 hours…

driverless trains london

As Techno has revealed before, the only thing stopping the introduction of driverless tubes is the lack of political will to get tough on the trade unionists currently driving them. Robots don’t strike…

mdi-timer 10th July 2015 @ 11:43 am 10th Jul 2015 @ 11:43 am mdi-comment Comments
What the Welfare Budget Looks Like Minus Pensions

Counting pensions as an old age ‘benefit’ has provided lefties with data-based ammunition against small state conservatives who want to slash the welfare bill. Looking at the graph below, targeting proportionally tiny housing benefits or tax credits looks futile – superficially at least – when 42% of the ‘welfare’ budget is spent on pensions:

You can see why lefties love using this statistic – it grossly skews the welfare bill to make it look like we hardly spend anything on the things their opponents want to cut.

So what does the welfare budget look like if we take pensions out of the equation?

This truer reflection of the welfare budget sees the other slices of the pie double in size.

30% of the non-pensions budget is spent on family benefits, income support and tax credits, some £45 billion.

Housing makes up closer to 20%, £26 billion.

A much clearer illustration of what we spend on welfare than lefties and the ONS would have us believe…

mdi-timer 8th July 2015 @ 11:48 am 8th Jul 2015 @ 11:48 am mdi-comment Comments
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