How the EU Over-Regulates Us

Campaign Report: Day 28

boris angle grinder

Leave message: Immigration stats confirm UK can’t control borders.

Remain message: Small businesses think Brexit will damage them.

Cut through: Cummings loses the plot (again).

Leave social media count: 358,767 likes, 40,825 followers.

Remain social media count: 393,225 likes, 27,464 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3 Leave 9/4

Latest poll: Remain 44%, Leave 46% (ICM, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 50%, Leave 50%.

True EU Immigration Figure 250,000-a-Year Higher

As Guido predicted yesterday Downing Street has tried to bury the ONS report on migration statistics this morning. You can see why…

In 2014 ONS immigration figures said there were 223,000 “long-term” EU migrants to Britain. Yet that year 421,000 National Insurance numbers were given to EU nationals. Why the discrepancy? Today’s report admits that if the official statistics had included EU migrants working in Britain for under 12 months then the real immigration figure for 2014 would have been 474,000. The ONS figures widely reported at the time missed a quarter of a million people. Remain are spinning that short-term migrants somehow don’t count – yet they still use the NHS, they are still a burden on public services, still claim benefits. The churn of short term migrants also means that the demand is a constant.

ons-nino

Meanwhile the number of EU nationals claiming benefits in Britain has risen by almost 42% in four years, from 92,000 to 130,000. The number of Eastern Europeans claiming out-of-work benefits has risen almost 177% from 22,000 to 61,540.

So the number of EU migrants is a quarter of million higher than the official statistics had suggested, and many tens of thousands more are claiming benefits. This is huge ammunition for the Leave campaign…

Corbyn’s Brother Hopes He Votes Leave

One man stole the show at the after-party for the premiere of Brexit: The Movie, Jeremy Corbyn’s brother Piers. Guido shared a beer and a laugh with the Labour leader’s climate change sceptic, Brexit-backing sibling, who explained that Jezza is a “long-term Eurosceptic” who “has been voting with Graham Stringer [the Labour Outer] for years”, but is now in “party management mode“. Piers insisted “I don’t know how he’s going to vote”. But he expressed a hope that his brother “does the right thing and votes out”…

The sponsors for Martin Durkin’s must-watch documentary put £30,000 behind the bar at the W London in Leicester Square, which went by midnight. Piers then went all meteorological on us, warning guests that major thunderstorms are coming our way around mid-August, approximately the 13th or 14th, including the possibility of hailstones. He advises holidaymakers best avoid Britain, France and most of western and northern Europe for the period. It’s his brother who will be experiencing real turbulence…

TV Referendum Debate Dates For Your Diary

tv-debates

On 2 June Cameron and Gove will take part in an hour-long programme on Sky News, a face-to-face live interview with Faisal Islam followed by a question-and-answer session with Kay Burley and a live studio audience.

On 7 June, Farage and then Cameron will answer questions from a studio audience on ITV, moderated by Julie Etchingham. On 9 June, ITV will host a full debate, guests TBC.

The BBC will then host a special edition of Question Time on 15 June and the box office Wembley Arena debate on 21 June.

Jeremy Paxman is doing a channel 4 EU referendum debate with an invited audience on June 22.

Vote Leave are particularly put out by ITV putting up Farage instead of Boris or Gove. Remember, Peston is best friends with Roland Rudd, impresario of the Remain campaign…

Campaign Report: Day 27

banks eu

Leave message: Boris’ Brexit bus tour begins, and the nasty banks back Remain.

boris blunder bus

Remain message: Boris’ bus is foreign and would be more expensive if we leave.

Cut through: Gordon’s intervention.

Leave social media count: 353,842 likes, 40,301 followers.

Remain social media count: 392,261 likes, 27,263 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3 Leave 9/4

Latest poll: Remain 44%, Leave 46% (ICM, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 50%, Leave 50%.

Taxpayer-Funded Lloyds Loan to Remain

The new Electoral Commission release shows that Lloyds Bank, which is still in part state-owned, has given a £20,000 loan to the Remain campaign at a rate of 1%. Awkward…

Vote Leave are all over it, and David Owen notes BSE have also taken cash from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Citi as well. The Lloyds loan however is just a charge card with no interest incurred if they settle up on time. After all, Lloyds Bank chairman Lord Blackwell is a Brexiteer who says our relationship with the EU is “unsustainable“…

Remain Spending Twice as Much as Leave, Thanks to Taxpayer

times red box EDITED

The Electoral Commission have released the first batch of pre-poll referendum campaign donations today:

Remain

  • Conservatives IN Ltd – £362,534
  • European Movement of the UK Ltd – £57,494
  • Michelle Ovens Ltd – £95,000
  • Scientists for EU Limited – £60,000
  • The IN Campaign Ltd (‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ – designated lead campaigner) – £6,883,684

Total: £7,458,712

Leave

  • GO Movement Ltd – £12,000
  • Grassroots Out Ltd – £2,039,925
  • Leave.EU Group Ltd – £3,200,000
  • The Bruges Group – £10,000
  • Trade Unionists Against The European Union – £22,000
  • Vote Leave Limited (designated lead campaigner) – £2,786,500
  • WAGTV Limited – £110,000

Total: £8,180,425

Of course they neglected to mention the extra £9 million the government spent on remain’s leaflets, or the £135,000 a week worth of ads, or the loan of the British museum etc etc. Taxpayer funding means Remain is spending well over double what Leave is…

Bombshell Migration Statistics Imminent

The rumour doing the rounds in Whitehall is that the bombshell report on active National Insurance numbers will be slipped out early tomorrow. Chris Grayling has been asked to make time for four or five statements, so it looks like Downing Street is planning a dumping day to bury as much bad news as possible. Will the embarrassing NI stats revealing the true level of immigration be released tomorrow? With a ‘major intervention’ then lined up by No. 10 for Friday to try to keep the figures off the front pages…

The number of EU nationals given NI numbers has always been significantly higher than official migration stats. 257,000 EU nationals came to Britain in the year to September 2015, yet 630,000 got NI numbers, including 170,000 Romanians. The official figures are a con – the actual level of immigration is over double what the government claims. This is the opening for the Leave campaign to turn the debate onto immigration…

Campaign Report: Day 26

ids

Leave message: Global exporters and businesses within the domestic market want out.

Remain message: Brits are £1,800 better off in.

Cut through: IDS says Merkel pulled strings on EU negotiations.

Leave social media count: 350,548 likes, 39,950 followers.

Remain social media count: 391,517 likes, 27,037 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3 Leave 9/4

Latest poll: Remain 44%, Leave 46% (ICM, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 50%, Leave 50%.

Miliband’s Museum Speech Swerved Spending Rules

LBC made a good point this morning – does David Miliband’s speech at the British Museum yesterday mean Britain Stronger in Europe flouted campaign spending rules? This is what the Museum, a public body, says:

“The British Museum has followed the guidance issued by Cabinet Office. The event on Monday 9 May was organised by the Government not the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign. The event involved the Prime Minister coming to explain government policy. The guidance stipulates that as a public body the Museum should continue to support Ministers in the conduct of visits (or parts of visits) to carry out government business in the normal way. The government estate should not be used for visits and events that are organised by the designated campaign groups.”

But Miliband is obviously nothing to do with the government. He is a representative of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign. They even press released it:

So the event wasn’t simply “government business” to “explain government policy”, as the Museum claim. Indeed, it is in breach of the Museum’s own rules that the venue “should not be used” for campaign group events. The cost of Britain Stronger in Europe renting the venue would be well into five figures, possibly as much as £20,000. Instead the taxpayer is funding yet more set piece Remain campaigning…

Verboten: Dave Asks Merkel to Stay Out of Referendum

merkel

IDS is giving a speech at 10 a.m. in which he’ll elaborate on his claim – on the front page of today’s Sun – that Angela Merkel blocked the key immigration emergency brake in Cameron’s renegotiation:

“I saw the draft. I know that right up until the midnight hour, there was a strong line in there about restricting the flow of migrants from the European Union – an emergency break on overall migration. That was dropped, literally the night before. And it was dropped because the Germans said if that is in the speech, we will have to attack it. The whole thing was shown to them. The Germans said from the outset, you are not getting border control. Full stop.”

Which makes this little nugget from a source in Downing Street very interesting. Guido understands that in a recent phone call between the PM and Merkel, Cameron is said to have asked the German leader to keep out of the referendum campaign. The source says a heated Cameron argued that an intervention from her would not help his case to the British people. Downing Street would of course deny any such conversation took place. Though the sceptical reaction of voters to Obama, and the potential for a migrant crisis-mired Merkel to bring toxic contagion, mean Dave probably had a point. The Remainers have made a big play of their support from the global elite – it would seem that when it comes to Merkel, they don’t want her public support…

Campaign Report: Day 25

boris dave

Leave message: Don’t listen to remain snobs – there is a cosmopolitan case for Leave.

Remain message: World War Two Veterans support remain, World War Three might happen with Brexit.

Cut through: Boris vs Dave.

Leave social media count: 348,137 likes, 39,608 followers.

Remain social media count: 389,707 likes, 26,805 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3 Leave 9/4

Latest poll: Remain 44% (+1), Leave 46% (+1) (ICM, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 50%, Leave 50%.

Scargill “Disgusted” With Corbyn

Arthur Scargill tells the BBC that Jezza has sold out on the EU and Trident:

“The message he should be putting forward is the one that we stood on the platform for and argued over what, 20 or 30 years, alongside Tony Benn and myself, and that is we should be coming out of the European Union; we should be calling upon people to vote ‘no.’ Secondly, he should be very clear and say the party’s policy is now clearly to scrap Trident… quite frankly, he’s done a u-turn, and I’m sorry to say I’m saddened and disgusted with the way that he’s behaved with these u-turns on fundamental policy.”

Watch what Corbyn really thinks about Brussels here

Liz Truss’ Scotch Botch

SCOTCH BOTCH DAVID FROST

Liz Truss is not happy with the impact Brexit will allegedly have on the Scotch whisky industry. That. Is. A. Disgrace, she almost said today:

“There’s a huge risk to the whisky industry. If we were to leave the single market it would mean lots more cost for their business.”

A neat line, but what does the industry itself think?

David Frost, the pro-Remain chief executive of the Scotch Whiskey Association, has previously argued on his website that:

“The existence of the industry does not depend on the EU. It depends on our ability to make a great product, at acceptable cost, and to beat the competition. Over the last hundred years we have always done that and I am confident we will carry on doing so in the future.”

Surely a better measure…

Privately, Frost is even more frank. In the leaked email below he complains that Cameron’s renegotiation was a “massive missed opportunity”:

“I guess we are all digesting the PM’s deal, recognising that it may evolve a little yet.  The whole thing feels to me like a massive missed opportunity.  What he has got probably is something like the best that could be achieved given the way the Govt went about the negotiation, ie the unwillingness to launch a significant campaign to convince broader European opinion about the need for a more open two-systems Europe”

And he then goes on to suggest that leading pro-Brexit economist Patrick Minford has a point. That’s the spirit!

EU Referendum is Neck and Neck

poll-of-polls

This is why the fear factor was being ramped up by Cameron this morning. Nothing is working. The script had it that by this stage every official authority, foreign government, non-governmental organisation and international organisation backing the status quo would convince a fearful British public that poor old Blighty could not cope in the big bad world on her own. The Great British public seem to think “sod ’em all”…

Boris: “We Are Fighting For Freedom!”

Boris shreds the snobbery of the Remainers:

“I can read novels in French and I can sing the Ode to joy in German, and if they keep accusing me of being a Little Englander, I will… So I find if offensive, insulting, irrelevant and positively cretinous to be told – sometimes by people who can barely speak a foreign language – that I belong to a group of small-minded xenophobes; because the truth is it is Brexit that is now the great project of European liberalism, and I am afraid that it is the European Union – for all the high ideals with which it began, that now represents the ancien regime.

It is we who are speaking up for the people, and it is they who are defending an obscurantist and universalist system of government that is now well past its sell by date and which is ever more remote from ordinary voters.

 It is we in the Leave Camp – not they – who stand in the tradition of the liberal cosmopolitan European enlightenment – not just of Locke and Wilkes, but of Rousseau and Voltaire; and though they are many, and though they are well-funded, and though we know that they can call on unlimited taxpayer funds for their leaflets, it is we few, we happy few who have the inestimable advantage of believing strongly in our cause, and that we will be vindicated by history; and we will win for exactly the same reason that the Greeks beat the Persians at Marathon – because they are fighting for an outdated absolutist ideology, and we are fighting for freedom.”

Such a rousing finale that Guido had to put it to music.

Watch BoJo’s speech in full here.

Crispin Blunt Comes Out For Brexit Live on Daily Politics

Crispin Blunt, chair of the Foreign Affairs select committee, comes out for Brexit live on the Daily Politics:

“My conclusion is I want a positive story and a positive role for the United Kingdom, and I think Brexit offers that option.”

By Guido’s count there are now 143 Tory MPs backing Brexit…

Cameron Willing to Risk World War 3 Over Migrant Benefit Changes

In February, Dave told the Commons that Britain would be just fine post-Brexit. He said if he didn’t get minor changes to migrant benefits he would consider leaving:

“I will never argue that Britain couldn’t survive outside the European Union… Let me say again, if we can’t secure these changes, I rule nothing out.”

Today he tells us Brexit could mean World War 3:

“The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price this country has paid to help restore peace and order in Europe. Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption.”

If Cameron genuinely believes leaving risks war, why would he consider backing Brexit over some tiny changes to the benefit system? If the PM is telling the truth today, why would he have even offered this referendum? You can’t fool anyone with this tosh.

Rich’s Monday Morning View

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