READ: Turkey Cables in Full

These are the leaked diplomatic cables referenced by the Sunday Times which show British diplomats discussing plans to allow visa-free access to the UK for over a million Turks. The key sections are highlighted, for example this bombshell paragraph which argues Britain should “assess again the possibility of visa travel”.

visa

Remember, Cameron publicly said “we won’t be offering visa-free access to Turks” and that Turkey is not an issue in the referendum…

NOW READ: Leaked Cables Reveal British Diplomats Believe 1.8 Million Migrants Would Be “A Drop in the Ocean” Compared to Turkey

LEAKED CABLES: 1.8 Million Migrants Would Be “A Drop in the Ocean” Compared to Turkey

turks

The Sunday Times has a great scoop: leaked cables reveal UK diplomats have discussed visa liberalisation for Turks coming to Britain, despite David Cameron’s pledge that “we won’t be offering visa-free access to Turks”. And there’s more…

Guido has been passed the cache of diplomatic cables. The telegram below is marked “Official – sensitive” and was sent by British diplomats in Kosovo to the Foreign Office. It reveals the European Commission plotted to “slipstream” visa liberalisation for Kosovo “behind Turkey”, because “1.8 million Kosovars” are “a drop in that larger ocean” by comparison. A stunning admission of the huge scale of potential new immigration – and collusion to play down the impact…

kosovo

The cable also admits the obvious, that “some will… abuse the system”. Privately British diplomats are talking about 1.8 million Kosovars as a “drop in the ocean” compared to potential Turkish immigration. Yet they are planning visa-free access for Turks – and Dave wants you to believe this isn’t an issue in the referendum…

OMG! Cameron Meets Buzzfeed: “You’ve F**ked Every F**king Thing Up”

And she was a Remainer. WTF?

Campaign Report: 13 Days to Go

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - JUNE 9: (NO ARCHIVE AFTER JUNE 30, 2016) In this handout image provided by ITV, Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson argues for Britain to leave the EU during The ITV Referendum Debate on June 9, 2016 in London, United Kingdom. During the two hour long live debate participants answered questions posed by the audience. Nicola Sturgeon, Angela Eagle and Amber Rudd argued for staying in the EU, whilst Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom and Gisela Stuarttake argued for leaving the EU. (Photo by Matt Frost/ITV via Getty Images)

Leave message: John Mann: We can create a more equal society if we Leave.

Remain message: Remain makes travel easier/cheaper.

Cut through: Boris interested in power, not Brexit.

Leave social media count: 474,264 likes, 56,624 followers.

Remain social media count: 465,727 likes, 36,696 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3, Leave 14/5

Latest poll: Remain 43% (+2), Leave 42% (-3) (YouGove, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51%, Leave 49%.

Friday Caption Contest (High Stakes Edition)

boris gove farage gambling gamble casino

Entries below…

BLUE ON BLUE: IDS Condemns Ros Altmann

ids

IDS has condemned his former junior DWP minister Ros Atlmann for her tweet this morning saying voters should not defy Remain MPs. He tells Guido:

“This is a very strange statement. The EU referendum is about the British people having a say over our future, yet a Government minister now seems to be suggesting that they should just obey their MPs – that voters have no right to their own opinions. I believe MPs are there to serve their constituents not, as Ros Altmann believes, to be served by them.”

No love lost there of course. But doubt you’ll see any Remainers defending Ros on this…

UPDATE: Ros apologises:

We know what she really thinks…

Three More MPs Declare For Leave

Tory MP Paul Maynard has declared for Leave -he says the PM’s renegotiation “didn’t deliver sufficient change”. On the other side Phillip Lee has backed Remain, Andrew Tyrie and Pauline Latham are expected to follow and one-time Eurosceptic Andrew Mitchell should join them on Sunday. See the full list of Tory MPs here – turncoats are in red.

On the Labour side John Mann tells the Sun he is voting Leave and Dennis Skinner is confirmed as an Outer on the front page of the Morning Star. We still don’t know the decision of 10 Tory MPs. No. 10 will be trying to buy them off but expect several not to make a public declaration…

ITV Debate Vote Leave Highlights

Vote Leave’s best bits from last night. Particularly strong closing statement from Boris…

Campaign Report: 14 Days to Go

blair major

Leave message: Latest trade stats show the UK is more likely than ever to get an EU trade deal post-Brexit.

Remain message: Stop Nigel, register to vote.

Cut through: Major and Blair: Brexit would “tear apart” UK.

Leave social media count: 469,678 likes, 54,829 followers.

Remain social media count: 464,073 likes, 35,868 followers.

Odds: Remain 3/10, Leave 16/5

Latest poll: Remain 43% (+2), Leave 42% (-3) (YouGove, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51%, Leave 49%.

Only 14.7% of Economists Oppose Brexit

economist

BSE made a big play out of “nine out of ten economists” apparently warning against Brexit this week. The figure was based on a self-selecting Ipsos MORI survey of economists from the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists. But BSE had some fun with the figures…

The survey was sent out to 3,818 economists. Only 639 (or 16.7%) replied, of which 561 said Brexit would be bad for the economy. That’s just 14.7% of the total number of economists contacted. So rather than nine out of ten economists warning against Brexit, it was actually closer one in seven. Not that you’d know that from their cheeky statistics trickery…

Whips Pressuring Leave MPs to Defect

Screen Shot 2016-06-08 at 20.34.54

Guido is getting reports that whips are calling up moderate Leave MPs and putting pressure on them to defect to Remain. A number of Tory backbenchers say they have been contacted by whips with overtures such as “you don’t want to be associated with Farage’s view of Britain”. A senior Tory tells Guido to expect a defection from a long-term “sceptic” to Remain tonight…

RUMOUR: Sarah Wollaston to Quit Vote Leave

Screen Shot 2016-06-08 at 20.34.54

Rumours are doing the rounds that Tory MP Sarah Wollaston is about to quit Vote Leave. The career contrarian is supposedly due to attack their £350 million figure – which oddly she has already criticised on numerous occasions before, so it’s strange she is suddenly upset about it. Her Euroscepticism must have been pretty thin if she’s wavering on this…

Campaign Report: 15 Days to Go

Hancock

Leave message: Raab says: massive advantages to controlled migration.

Remain message: Hague says: Leave is a risk to the economy.

Cut through: Voter registration extended until June 9.

Leave social media count: 464,699 likes, 54,049 followers.

Remain social media count: 461,798 likes, 35,398 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3, Leave 14/5

Latest poll: Remain 43% (+2), Leave 42% (-3) (YouGove, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51%, Leave 49%.

Leave Overtakes Remain on Facebook

Referendum likes

On the whole, Facebook often lacks Twitter’s faster political edge. Yet as shown by the general election, it matters far more…

While Remain always lacked Twitter* followers, it carried the edge regarding Facebook likes – until today. With Guido’s daily campaign report showing the two campaigns being neck and neck yesterday, it would appear that Farage’s (or Cameron’s) performance last night was enough to push some as-yet-undecided Facebook users over the edge, lending Leave 4,500 extra followers overnightArron Banks fans screaming “split campaign” should remember Guido only started tracking likes after Vote Leave got the official designation…

What does this mean? Facebook offers politicos the opportunity to appeal directly to users with targeted messages from their page. Using the vast array of data stored on each Facebook profile – likes, location, events attended – these posts can be laser precise while not subject to the clamour of Twitter’s left-wing echo chamber. If that isn’t convincing enough, the Tories chose to spend £1 million more than Labour on Facebook alone in 2015. Twitter wins columnists, Facebook wins votes…

*At the time of going to pixel @Vote_Leave has 53,946 followers and @StrongerIn has 35,256 followers.

Farage and Cameron Highlights

Farage said we won’t be bullied by Juncker:

And he brought a prop:

This was Cameron’s toughest moment: 

Cameron still doesn’t have a line on immigration – these questions reflect genuine public concern about strain on public services. Hard to paint them as Little Englanders.

Cameron Wants Serbia, Turkey to Join EU

More evidence that Cameron is not telling the truth about his real view of Turkey joining the EU…

Campaign Report: 16 Days to Go

dave

Leave message: EU rules mean we can’t extradite foreign villains.

Remain message: Last day to register to vote.

Cut through: PM bashes Brexit “Untruths”.

Leave social media count: 459,406 likes, 52,615 followers.

Remain social media count: 459,661 likes, 34,817 followers.

Odds: Remain 4/11, Leave between 13/5 and 11/4

Latest poll: Remain 43% (+2), Leave 42% (-3) (YouGove, online). Poll of Polls is now Remain 51%, Leave 49%.

Tory Turncoat Tipped For Peerage

GEOFFREY VAN ORDEN

Tory MEP Geoffrey Van Orden, famous for sharing a Fanny with Kanye West, is a self-proclaimed “dyed-in-the-wool Eurosceptic”. On his own website he boasts:

“I didn’t become an MEP in order to promote the EU – I want us to govern our own country”

Last month he said:

“I oppose so much of what goes on in this place (European Parliament) and in the European Union. I think a lot of it is detrimental to British interests and indeed in the interest of many of our European countries”

And he threatened to back Brexit unless Cameron achieved “tangible change”. You’ll never guess what…

Today he has ‘done a Mak‘ and come out for Remain. Sir Geoffrey is set to retire at the end of this term. This will only fuel the rumours he’s been offered a seat in the Lords…

Mercer Promised Constituents “Direct Democracy: You Call the Shots”

Johnny Mercer gave Guido a two word response for pointing out he’d ignored his own constituency referendum poll: “Total bollocks”. Johnny says his poll – which found 74% backed Leave – was “unscientific” and therefore he will be voting Remain anyway. Local voters aren’t impressed, mainly because of a promise Mercer made them on his website. This pledge is still up for all to see:

mercer2

Step one: Promise your constituents “Direct Democracy – you call the shots”.

Step two: Poll them on their views on the referendum.

Step three: Ignore them when the results don’t agree with your career plans…

Hilary Benn: Uncontrolled Immigration “Part of the Deal” of Voting Remain

Four times Andrew Neil asked Hilary Benn if immigration could be controlled inside the EU. Three times he failed to answer, before eventually admitting it couldn’t. He says uncontrolled immigration “is part of the deal…”

Via @liarpoliticians
[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

John Curtice on fiscal policy:

“Attitudes to taxation and spending are basically counter-cyclical. If a government comes in and tries to reduce spending and taxation, after a while people will get worried about the state of public services. If a government increases taxation and public spending, after a while they’ll get concerned about increasing taxation…. In as much as there are lots of ideologues out there who think the state should be this proportion of GDP, they’re all wrong. Because the public’s view is counter-cyclical to the recent experience. It’s basically impossible to satisfy the public.”

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