There will be long sessions of soul-searching in the offices of UK pollsters this morning as the Guido team’s highly scientific whiteboard-based prediction beat every single final MRP projection they put out. All but two constituencies are now decided. Ross Kempsell is officially the victor, beating the rest of the team and every single UK pollster’s final seat MRP prediction for accuracy…

Guido has crunched the numbers and found that an average of the team’s predictions is closer to the actual result than all of those expensive and overhyped MRP final seat forecasts. YouGov came closest to matching Guido’s gold standard…

If you don’t believe it, you can check the underlying data tables here. Variance is the difference between actual seats and the predictions – the lower, the better. Collectively we are what Dominic Cummings would describe as super-forecasters. Why hire the pollsters when you can just check Guido…

Sunak took a jet down to London after speaking at the Richmond count. His first stop was CCHQ. Now he speaks one last time as PM…

WATCH LIVE: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers his resignation speech https://t.co/nqrEDYRz7V

— UK Prime Minister (@10DowningStreet) July 5, 2024

Then off to Buckingham Palace…

UPDATE: Sunak says he will stay on as leader until formal arrangements for his choosing successor are in place.

Read the full text of the speech below:

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The exit poll predicts a Labour majority of 170 seats. A historical landslide….

Tories –  131

Labour – 410

Reform – 13

Lib Dems – 61

SNP – 10

Green – 2

Other – 23

Usually the exit poll is pretty accurate. Though the count has not yet begun… 

Hat-Tip: Scott Bryan

Many cabinet ministers’ seats sit on a knife-edge. YouGov predicts that 12 will lose them. How will things pan out overnight?

• Jeremy Hunt, Godalming and Ash to LibDems by 15%.
• Grant Shapps, Welwyn Hatfield to Labour by 18%.
• Penny Mordaunt, Portsmouth North to Labour by 5%.
• Mark Harper, Forest of Dean to Labour by 4%.
• Alex Chalk, Cheltenham to LibDems 31%.
• Mel Stride, Central Devon to Labour by 1%.
• Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View to Labour by 11%.
• Esther McVey, Tatton to Labour by 1%.
• Gillian Keegan, Chichester to the LibDems by 5%.
• Simon Hart, Caerfyrddin to Labour by 9%.
• David T C Davies, Monmouthshire to Labour by 11%.
• Victoria Prentis, Banbury to Labour by 6%.

A lot of those will be announced at around 3 a.m. There are other fun seats to watch:

• Chingford and Woodford Green, around 3 a.m. Will ex-Labour Faiza Shaheen take enough votes from the left for Iain Duncan Smith to squeeze through? Reform is also standing…
• Rotherham. Reform is making excited noises about this seat after the Tories failed to submit papers for it. Will 2010 entrant Sarah Champion miss out on the Labour landslide?
• Islington North, around 3 a.m: Bookies have even odds on Corbyn winning. Recent polling suggests he’s on the way out…
• Bristol Central, around 3 a.m.: Labour frontbencher Thangham Debbonaire is trying to hold on in the face of a Green threat from the party’s co-leader Carla Denyer. Green-commissioned polling says they’ll win this one…
• Basildon and Billericay: Tory chairman Richard Holden might not win this safe seat 300 miles from his home. Maybe because it isn’t the 500/1,000 miles The Proclaimers demanded…
• Newark, around 3 a.m: Tory leadership hopeful Robert Jenrick is at risk. Who will import new Canadian Conservatism then?
• Richmond, around 4 a.m: Will Sunak be the first sitting PM ever to lose his seat? He’s said to be worried about it…
• South West Norfolk: Liz Truss is under threat from angry farmers. Local Tories have reported abysmal responses on the doorstep for weeks now…
• Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Onward founder, Downing Street’s Will Tanner is running in this safe seat. Will voters reject the author of national service?
• Wycombe, around 6 a.m: Steve Baker says he wants to run for Tory leader. He’ll have to move mountains to keep the seat…
• Clacton, around 4 a.m: Polls have predicted that Nigel Farage will take this seat off Tory Giles Watling. The “revolt” sort of relies on it…
• Ashfield, around 4 a.m: Earlier in the year Tory MPs said Lee Anderson’s defection would surely cost him the seat. It’s not looking so sure now…
• Ashton-under-Lyne: Angela Rayner is hoping to head off a challenge from Galloway’s Workers Party. Were the pleas to the Muslim community enough?
• Rochdale: Will George Galloway hang on? Labour is determined he doesn’t…
• Mid Buckinghamshire: Will Tory Greg Smith defeat the Greens’ Greg Smith and Labour’s former ‘Miss Voluptuous’ candidate? Tune in to one of the safest seats around…

That should keep punters entertained. Amid a likely cascade of Portillo moments…