Only One Pundit Called This

#StonkingToryMajority

Boris’ CCHQ Victory Speech

The FT’s Seb Payne has got hold of an audio recording of Boris’ private victory speech to CCHQ staff. Jubilant scenes…

Boris Wins Stonking Victory

As of 08:30 this morning, Boris has won 44% of the vote compared to 32% for Labour. This has led to the Tories winning 364 seats to Labour’s lowly 202 – a majority of 79. The Tories’ seat count is their highest since Thatcher, while Labour’s is their lowest since 1935…

  • Con 364* (+47)
  • Lab 203 (-59)
  • SNP 48 (+13)
  • Lib Dems 11 (-1)
  • DUP 8 (-2)
*This could rise to 365 as St Ives is yet to come in.

The Tories lost seven seats to the SNP and one to Labour, but won enough new seats to make up for those and more, particularly in the Midlands, Wales, and the North. The one seat Labour managed to take off the Tories was typically metropolitan Putney…

Big names to lose their seats included:

  • Jo Swinson
  • Laura Pidcock
  • Dennis Skinner
  • Chris Williamson
  • Emma Dent Coad
  • Caroline Flint
  • David Gauke
  • Antoinette Sandbach
  • Dominic Grieve
  • Anna Soubry
  • Nigel Dodds
  • Zac Goldsmith

Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, and Sam Gyimah also failed to win new ones.

The Tories won so evenly across the country that Michael Gove was able to triumphantly declare in the Tories’ victory event this morning that “Next year both the Durham Miners’ Gala and the Notting Hill Carnival will take place in seats held by the Conservatives.” The Tories won back Kensington which includes Notting Hill, and astonishingly Laura Pidcock was defeated in her seat of North West Durham…

The Times this morning shows the swing in Great Britain compared to 2017:

Stonking.

How do the Polls Compare to Last Time?

The final Tory poll leads of this election from each pollster came in last night, ranging from hung parliament territory (five points) to a landslide majority (thirteen points). Each pollster’s results are as follows…

  • Savanta ComRes 5pts
  • ICM 6pts
  • Panelbase 9pts
  • YouGov 9pts
  • BMG 9pts
  • Deltapoll 10pts
  • NPC 10pts
  • Survation 11pts
  • Mori 11pts
  • Opinium 12pts
  • Kantar 12pts
  • Qriously 13pts

That makes for an average lead of 9.76%.

By comparison, this was the spread of polls by the end of the 2017 campaign:

  • Qriously -2pts
  • Survation 1pts
  • Surveymonkey 4pts
  • Kantar 5pts
  • Opinium 7pts
  • YouGov 7pts
  • Panelbase 8pts
  • Mori 8pts
  • ComRes 10pts
  • ICM 12pts
  • BMG 13pts

Meaning that on the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%.

In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%. Hung Parliament territory…

Hat-Tip: Sam Freedman

What the Papers Say this Morning

Polls are open for just 15 more hours. This is how each of the national papers are presenting the choice facing the country. The Sun takes Guido’s prize for creativity, with its callback to 1992…

8 Days to Go

TORIES

  • Former Labour MP Ivan Lewis Backs Boris
  • Pledge £4.2bn for trains, buses and trams
  • Boris hails ‘solidarity’ after anniversary talks
  •  Topline(s):
    • 8 DAYS TO GET BREXIT DONE

LABOUR

  • Labour claims their plans could save families £6,700 a year.
  •  Topline(s):
    • Labour will lay foundations of a new economy

LIB DEM

  • Warn of student mental health ‘crisis’. Pledge more services in universities.
  • Bees swarmed campaign bus. Jo Swinson spoke to the bees.
  • Topline(s):
    • Only the Lib Dems can take seats off the Tories

Cut through

  • Nato summit: Trump calls Trudeau ‘two-faced’ over video

Latest polls:

YouGov: CON: 42% (-1) LAB: 33% (-1) LDEM: 12% (-1) BREX: 4% (+2)

PaddyPower Majority Odds (Previous in Brackets):

    • Tories: 4/11 (4/9)
    • No overall: 2/1 (15/8)
    • Labour: 20/1 (20/1)
    • Lib Dems: 250/1 (250/1)

Leave Supporting Labour Voters’ Focus Group Loves Boris

A focus group of Leave voters who voted for Labour in 2017 was compiled by Channel 4 to explore the issues of this election and attitudes towards party leaders. It will make reassuring viewing for CCHQ as the headline polls begin to tighten. They don’t trust Corbyn, and call Boris a ‘loveable buffoon’. Watch the full segment here

Lib Dems Launch Skills Policy From Blair’s Son’s Company

The remain establishment were in perfect harmony this morning when Sam Gyimah launched the new Lib Dem skills policy from Tony Blair’s son Euan’s company. All in the family…

The Lib Dems announced a new policy of £10,000 of education for each adult from the headquarters of White Hat GB – whose CEO happens to be Euan Anthony Blair. His dad has been keeping quiet about whether he’ll actually vote Labour this time round…

Brexiteer Tories Seek Compromise Pact with Farage

Guido has been speaking to Brexiteer Tory MPs about this morning’s offer from Farage that he will stand down his election efforts if Boris scraps his deal. The reactions have been varied, one MP described the offer as “desperate” whilst another said: “I think Boris and Nigel should meet this weekend and sort this out. It’s a disaster otherwise!” When Guido asked if this MP was happy with Boris’ deal they simply replied: “I want a clean break Brexit on WTO.” Even Tory MPs are using Nigel’s lines…

Several MPs were supportive of a behind-the-scenes pact where both parties put up paper candidates against each other in seats where the other has more chance of winning; with one high profile Brexiteer telling us Corbyn’s remain candidate will undoubtedly win if the Brexit Party put up a candidate against them.

Nigel Evans described Boris as a “Heineken politician… he refreshes the parts other politicians cannot reach” but warned that Farage should work on Labour seats and “let the Conservatives focus on our top 70 or so targets”. No deal between the Tories and Brexit Party could lead to the opposite of a no deal Brexit…

Labour’s First Election Spin Cock Up

Staying on message during an election is the single most important part of any media strategy. It appears Labour have made this job considerably more difficult for them by not actually agreeing a line to take on whether they wanted this election in the first place, and whether they were responsible for it happening. Guido reckons the answer’s fairly obvious in the eyes of the public…

Appearing on GMB, Jon Trickett proudly boasted it was “us that triggered [the general election]”. However earlier this morning on Kay Burley, McDonnell implied Labour had been bounced into it by the Lib Dems and SNP, saying “it was the only choice we had”. Very kind of Labour to set the tone of their campaign so early on…

MPs Standing Down at the Next Election

As Britain heads for a general election, MPs are making decisions about their own future career plans. So as the day-to-day politics unfurls, Guido brings you the comprehensive and continually-updating list of MPs who have announced they will be stepping down at the next election. Get in touch with any updates…

Speaker

  • John Bercow, Buckingham

Conservative

  • Alan Duncan, Rutland and Melton
  • Alastair Burt, North East Bedfordshire
  • Andrew Griffiths, Burton
  • Bill Grant, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
  • Caroline Spelman, Meriden 
  • Claire Perry, Devizes 
  • David Lidington, Aylesbury
  • David Tredinnick, Bosworth
  • Ed Vaizey, Wantage
  • George Hollingbery, Meon Valley
  • Glyn Davies, Montgomeryshire
  • Henry Bellingham, North West Norfolk
  • Hugo Swire, East Devon
  • Jeremy Lefroy, Stafford
  • Jo Johnson, Orpington
  • Keith Simpson, Broadland
  • Mark Field, Cities of London and Westminster
  • Mark Lancaster, Milton Keynes North
  • Mark Prisk, Hertford & Stortford
  • Michael Fallon, Sevenoaks 
  • Mims Davies, Eastleigh 
  • Nicholas Soames, Mid Sussex
  • Nick Herbert, Arundel and South Downs
  • Nick Hurd, Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
  • Nicky Morgan, Loughborough 
  • Patrick McLoughlin, Derbyshire Dales
  • Peter Heaton-Jones, North Devon
  • Richard Benyon, Newbury
  • Richard Harrington, Watford
  • Ross Thompson, Aberdeen South
  • Sarah Newton, Truro and Falmouth
  • Seema Kennedy, South Ribble

Labour

  • Adrian Bailey, West Bromwich West
  • Albert Owen, Ynys Mon
  • Ann Clwyd, Cynon Valley 
  • Geoffrey Robinson, Coventry North West
  • Gloria De Piero, Ashfield
  • Helen Jones, Warrington North
  • Ian Lucas, Wrexham
  • Jim Cunningham, Coventry South
  • Jim Fitzpatrick, Poplar and Limehouse 
  • John Mann, Bassetlaw 
  • John Woodcock, Barrow and Furness
  • Kate Hoey, Vauxhall
  • Keith Vaz, Leicester East 
  • Kelvin Hopkins, Luton North
  • Kevin Barron, Rother Valley
  • Louise Ellman, Liverpool Riverside
  • Owen Smith, Pontypridd
  • Paul Farrelly, Newcastle-under-Lyme
  • Roberta Blackman-Woods, City of Durham 
  • Ronnie Campbell, Blyth Valley
  • Stephen Pound, Ealing North
  • Stephen Twigg, Liverpool West Derby
  • Teresa Pearce, Erith and Thamesmead
  • Tom Watson, West Bromwich East

Lib Dem

  • Norman Lamb, North Norfolk 
  • Vince Cable, Twickenham 

DUP

  • David Simpson, Upper Bann

Former-Tory, Former-Change UK, Former-Independent, Former ‘The Independents’, Now Lib Dem

  • Heidi Allen, South Cambridgeshire

Conservative Independents

  • Charlie Elphicke, Dover
  • Guto Bebb, Aberconwy 
  • Oliver Letwin, West Dorset
  • Justine Greening, Putney
  • Ken Clarke, Rushcliffe 
  • Nick Boles, Grantham
  • Philip Hammond, Runnymede and Weybridge

Independent

  • Amber Rudd, Hastings and Rye
  • Ian Austin, Dudley North
  • Margot James, Stourbridge
  • Rory Stewart, Penrith and the Border
  • Sylvia Hermon, North Down

Change UK

  • Ann Coffey, Stockport
  • Joan Ryan, Enfield North 

The totemic 2010 election saw 149 MPs announce they wouldn’t contest the election, 2015 saw 90, and 2017 saw 30. The 2019 tally stands at 75…

Photo h/t to Tracey Crouch.

Government to Introduce Lib Dem Election Bill Replica Tomorrow if Today’s Vote Fails

The government has announced that if today’s election motion fails it will introduce an “almost identical” bill to that which the Lib Dems and SNP were proposing over the weekend for a December 9 election. Awkward for Cleverly and NiMo who were sent onto the Sunday shows to dismiss their idea as an anti-Brexit plot…

The news gives hope to a new path to a pre-January election, as it looks tonight’s vote – under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliament Act and therefore requiring a 2/3rds majority – will fail, with Labour set to vote against it.

If presented tomorrow, the bill will require a mere majority to pass. With the Conservatives, Spartan Tories, SNP and Lib Dems, Parliament looks set to back the December 9th election with a majority of 19. It waits to be seen how Corbyn wriggles out of this one…

UPDATE: Labour to abstain on tonight’s vote. The Daily Mirror report:

Election 2019: Where the Parties Stand

Boris’s election announcement last night left the other parties reeling, with the spinning and stall-setting kicking into overdrive. The Tories are pushing hard for a fresh general election to be held on December 12, briefing that the Government is willing to play hardball to achieve it, to the point of “going on strike” as a Government with nothing being passed until one is granted. So no change from usual then…

This morning Guido brings you a handy roundup of where the other parties in Parliament stand…

The Liberal Democrats immediately started to fundraise off the back of the announcement, but look set to vote against it in Parliament. On Newsnight last night, Chuka squirmed but held firm to his ‘wait and see’ position. Which in reality means they oppose an election but don’t want to say so…

The SNP have come up with a cleverer line that they “want an election, but not on Boris Johnson’s terms.” Whatever that means…

The Greens were perhaps the most audacious, with Caroline Lucas decrying the idea of electing a fresh Parliament as a dangerous and cynical manoeuvre.” Remainer opposes democracy shock…

As for Labour, initially, Momentum and hard-left Labour figures said ‘bring it on’, while Blairites attempted to pour cold water over the suggestion. The Labour Leadership initially followed the anti-election Blairite line which left the likes of Owen Jones and Ash Sarkar reeling. This morning the leadership have settled on the broadly meaningless form of words that they will not agree to an election “until No Deal is taken off the table.” The only way of doing that is by passing a deal (which Labour continues to vote against) or revoking Article 50 (which Labour continues to criticise).

If the EU agree to Parliament’s demand for an extension until January 31, there is no chance of leaving without a deal before then, and the future relationship would be determined by the winner of the election. If Labour wanted to deliver a much closer future relationship, nothing would stop them from doing so if they won the election. The real reason opposition parties are running scared is they think Boris will win…

LiveBlog: Boris to Table Election Motion Tonight

Stick with this article for updates as they unfold. Developing…

  • 18:04 Momentum back election
  • 17:50 Lib Dems – like the SNP – waiting to see extension details before backing election.
  • 17:48 SNP say they need to see long extension secured before backing election.
[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

The Lady Nugee Is For Turning

Emily Thornberry took to the airwaves yesterday in the run-up to Corbyn’s speech, where she declared that she’d rather have a second referendum than a general election because an election would just “be all about in or out, what kind of deal, and so to a certain extent I can see the sense in trying to have a referendum first”…

Which is directly contradictory to her argument at the end of May where she spoke of the dangers of a new Prime Minister who is willing to leave with No Deal, saying “if you get a Tory leader who wants to do all that they should have the guts to take it back to the people, and if they’re so confident that that’s what the people want then they should ask them, that’s why we should have a general election.” What could have possibly changed her mind?[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Corbyn Drops Even Lower as Least Popular Opposition Leader in History

New polling by Ipsos MORI today has revealed Jeremy Corbyn is solidifying his position as the least popular Leader of the Opposition in the history of British politics. No surprise he keeps voting down an election…

At the end of June, Corbyn dropped to the lowest ever LOTO rating with -58 approval, but today he has surpassed even that – dropping a clear four points behind Michael Foot’s personal best.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

May to Stand in Next Election

Unlike David Cameron who bolted from public life the moment he resigned as PM, Theresa May will be standing in the next election. Just think of the riveting backbench speeches we have in store…

[…] Read the rest

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Leave Beat the SNP in Half of Their Westminster Seats

The SNP love going on about how more Remain votes than Leave votes came from Scotland in the United Kingdom’s EU referendum. They don’t like mentioning that more than a million Scots voted to leave, or the fact that if you disregard the Leave votes from Scotland and Northern Ireland, Remain would have won.[…] Read the rest

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Labour’s Website Contradicts Their Policy

The Labour Party has shifted position on an election so much that their website currently hosts a page published less than a week ago that says Labour will back an election as soon as their Surrender Bill passed. The bill passed.[…] Read the rest

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Election Speculation Summary

In case Guido readers haven’t had time to keep up with the rumour mill, here’s what’s going down in the Westminster Bubble as election speculation reaches boiling point:

  • The PM has convened a last-minute cabinet meeting for 5 pm, with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg saying Boris will discuss calling an election this week
  • This is well-timed to be followed by a previously-arranged garden party with all Tory MPs.
[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

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