CCHQ’s Exit Poll Reaction

Fair to say that CCHQ’s reaction to the Exit Poll was slightly more positive than in the sullen studios of Channel 4 or Novara Media…

mdi-timer 16th December 2019 @ 12:30 pm 16th Dec 2019 @ 12:30 pm mdi-comment Comments
Only One Pundit Called This


mdi-timer 13th December 2019 @ 9:26 am 13th Dec 2019 @ 9:26 am mdi-comment Comments
Boris’ CCHQ Victory Speech

The FT’s Seb Payne has got hold of an audio recording of Boris’ private victory speech to CCHQ staff. Jubilant scenes…

mdi-timer 13th December 2019 @ 9:00 am 13th Dec 2019 @ 9:00 am mdi-comment Comments
Boris Wins Stonking Victory

As of 08:30 this morning, Boris has won 44% of the vote compared to 32% for Labour. This has led to the Tories winning 364 seats to Labour’s lowly 202 – a majority of 80. The Tories’ seat count is their highest since Thatcher, while Labour’s is their lowest since 1935…

  • Con 365 (+47)
  • Lab 203 (-59)
  • SNP 48 (+13)
  • Lib Dems 11 (-1)
  • DUP 8 (-2)

The Tories lost seven seats to the SNP and one to Labour, but won enough new seats to make up for those and more, particularly in the Midlands, Wales, and the North. The one seat Labour managed to take off the Tories was typically metropolitan Putney…

Big names to lose their seats included:

  • Jo Swinson
  • Laura Pidcock
  • Dennis Skinner
  • Chris Williamson
  • Emma Dent Coad
  • Caroline Flint
  • David Gauke
  • Antoinette Sandbach
  • Dominic Grieve
  • Anna Soubry
  • Nigel Dodds
  • Zac Goldsmith

Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, and Sam Gyimah also failed to win new ones.

The Tories won so evenly across the country that Michael Gove was able to triumphantly declare in the Tories’ victory event this morning that “Next year both the Durham Miners’ Gala and the Notting Hill Carnival will take place in seats held by the Conservatives.” The Tories won back Kensington which includes Notting Hill, and astonishingly Laura Pidcock was defeated in her seat of North West Durham…

The Times this morning shows the swing in Great Britain compared to 2017:


mdi-timer 13th December 2019 @ 8:36 am 13th Dec 2019 @ 8:36 am mdi-comment Comments
How do the Polls Compare to Last Time?

The final Tory poll leads of this election from each pollster came in last night, ranging from hung parliament territory (five points) to a landslide majority (thirteen points). Each pollster’s results are as follows…

  • Savanta ComRes 5pts
  • ICM 6pts
  • Panelbase 9pts
  • YouGov 9pts
  • BMG 9pts
  • Deltapoll 10pts
  • NPC 10pts
  • Survation 11pts
  • Mori 11pts
  • Opinium 12pts
  • Kantar 12pts
  • Qriously 13pts

That makes for an average lead of 9.76%.

By comparison, this was the spread of polls by the end of the 2017 campaign:

  • Qriously -2pts
  • Survation 1pts
  • Surveymonkey 4pts
  • Kantar 5pts
  • Opinium 7pts
  • YouGov 7pts
  • Panelbase 8pts
  • Mori 8pts
  • ComRes 10pts
  • ICM 12pts
  • BMG 13pts

Meaning that on the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%.

In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%. Hung Parliament territory…

Hat-Tip: Sam Freedman
mdi-timer 12th December 2019 @ 2:00 pm 12th Dec 2019 @ 2:00 pm mdi-comment Comments
What the Papers Say this Morning

Polls are open for just 15 more hours. This is how each of the national papers are presenting the choice facing the country. The Sun takes Guido’s prize for creativity, with its callback to 1992…

mdi-timer 12th December 2019 @ 7:00 am 12th Dec 2019 @ 7:00 am mdi-comment Comments
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