British Polling Council: “No Inquiry”

The official statement from the British Polling Council says although “… the final polls were not ideal, the BPC does not feel there is a need for another formal inquiry”:

“The polls proved very good at predicting the Conservative vote, with an average of the final polls being only 0.2% higher than the actual result… They did, however, prove much less good at predicting the Labour vote, with the pollsters’ average being 5.2% below Labour’s actual share. This is only the second election since 1987 when the pollsters have underestimated the Labour share. The average poll figure for the Liberal Democrats was very close, being only 0.3% different from the result.”

Guido has calculated the above accuracy league from the BPC statement. The official final polls as per the BPC (and the BBC) show that the pollsters were on average out by 1.97%. Which could easily be a decisive margin in a general election…

Data here spreadsheet monkeys.

10 DUP Policies the Tories Should Adopt

The DUP manifesto is rather better in places than that Conservative manifesto:

The DUP pledged:

  1. To reduce the rate of Corporation Tax to at least 12.5%;
  2. To freeze then cut or abolish the TV licence and reform the BBC;
  3. To cut the VAT rate for tourism businesses;
  4. To introduce a Trade Accelerator Plan including an enhanced range of initiatives to help support both new and existing exporters to explore new markets;
  5. To abolish Air Passenger Duty;
  6. To establish low tax, deregulated Freeports in economically underdeveloped parts of the UK
  7. To reduce the number of Government Departments and reduce the number of Special Advisors;
  8. To introduce a Civil Service Voluntary Exit Scheme yielding annual savings of approximately £100 million;
  9. To create new trade, investment and innovation hubs in key global markets;
  10. To introduce alternative models of public sector service delivery such as increasing the use of social enterprises.

Guido for one welcomes the eleventh-hour entry of the DUP, our new political overlords…

Good Morning, Theresa May Lost

Guido is going for a sleep…

Salmond Out

CLEGG LOSES HIS SEAT

Caitlin Moran Calls 4 Out of 5 of Her Readers “C*nts”

Caitlin Moran has once again, unwisely, gone on a foul-mouthed Twitter rant this morning with: “voting for Labour = not being a c**t”.

Unfortunately for Moran, this makes 80% of her Times readers c**ts, as only 20% of Times readers voted for Labour in 2015. This figure pales in comparison to the 55% who voted for the Conservatives in that election.

Even worse for Moran, The Times today officially endorsed the Conservatives this morning. 

Can’t wait for her defeat column on Saturday…

UPDATE: Moran has now deleted the Tweet, possibly after a stern word from the boss.

Labour Candidate Lies About Her Address

The Labour candidate for Morecambe and Lunesdale has muddled up her own address.

Vikki Singleton, a councillor, has listed herself as living within the constituency on her official nomination papers. However, last week she issued a leaflet saying she lives outside the constituency in Blackpool It is of course a legal requirement to give your current address….

She has also released a campaign video where she promises to fight for rural Lunesdale. She uses footage of Holme Parish Hall to illustrate her point…which is not in Lunesdale at all, but is in fact in neighbouring Tim Farron’s Westmorland and Lonsdale constituency.    

It is almost as she has been parachuted into the seat and hasn’t a clue….

Nuttall’s Had His Chips

Why is Paul Nuttall eating a bag of chips at 10.15 a.m.?

LibDem Candidates Loving EU

Two LibDem candidates are taking the whole Remainiac thing a bit far. Hugh Annand, their candidate in Hitchin and Harpenden, is living the LibDem dream by declaring an address in Belgium. He works for the Commission in Brussels, natch. 

Meanwhile Anthony Sycamore, standing in Stockton North, is a musician living in France:

On the doorstep via Skype?

H/T @georgiecalle, @hannachronism

Another Lying LibDem Leaflet

What is it with the LibDems and telling straight lies on their leaflets? The above was delivered in Hornsey and Wood Green over the weekend, quoting an article in The Times as saying “Only the Lib Dems can stop a hard Brexit”A quick Google reveals this piece was not written by a Times journalist, but instead by the Lib Dem candidate for Manchester Gorton Jackie Pearcey. This leaflet is carrying a straight untruth: these words are from a LibDem candidate and the LibDems are falsely attributing them to the Times. You just can’t trust those lyin’ LibDems…

H/T @philhornbyitv

Updated: Map of Chaos

We’ve updated the reality of the so-called “Progressive Alliance” on the ground. Our interactive infographic shows where the various flavours of big spending, high taxing, freedom crushing socialists are standing aside in an effort to cobble together the “coalition of chaos”.

Full screen here. Use the search box to find constituencies or zoom in and hover over to see precise information.

Got any updates for the map? Email team@order-order.com.

May Meets Unhappy Cathy

Cathy wants more benefits…

LibDems: Vote Tory, Get Corbyn

This has to be the most fantastically absurd leaflet of the election campaign. The LibDems are claiming that voting Tory could put Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10 and that only voting LibDem can stop Labour winning. Not sure what they’ve been smoking. Farron himself has said the Tories are going to win and the LibDems have been secretly telling their supporters to vote Labour in some seats. Gotta admire the chutzpah…

Speaking of unfortunate leaflets, here is one from Labour MP Roger Godsiff, who probably needs a better campaign slogan:

Who is Guido to disagree…

May at Palace to Mark Dissolution of Parliament

Theresa May has just left Downing Street to meet The Queen at Buckingham Palace. This tradition marks the dissolution of Parliament which occurred at 00.01 this morning. MPs are no longer MPs, now they’re just like all of us…

May is due to speak when she returns to Downing Street shortly.

Corbyn Bombshell / Tory Bombshell


This latest Tory poster looks like an easy hit on Corbyn, except… the Tories are promising an expensive bomb – Trident for the navy, which will mean less for the army. As many in the senior ranks of the army will tell you, the incredibly expensive Trident system, designed for an historic Cold War enemy, means less weapons for the army in the active theatres in which they are fighting.

Are the Tories promising less debt and lower taxes overall? No.

UPDATE: Piers Morgan nuked Jon Ashworth on the issue this morning:

06.46 and Labour’s first incoherent interview of the day already underway…

Corbyn Gets Beers In Early: Son Plans Jezza Ale

It may only be the first week of a gruelling election campaign but Jeremy Corbyn’s son Tommy is getting the beers in early. He is in discussions with a friend to brew a special ‘Corbyn’s Courage’ India Pale Ale, which will feature a picture of his father on the bottle. Adorned with a ‘vote Labour’ rosette, the label reads: ‘Hope, Hops and Brew’. Corbyn’s son has asked George Culhane: “How many could you do?” They’ll need something to cry into on June 8…

PM to Face Down Tory MPs at 5pm

Theresa May is to address a special meeting of the 1922 committee at 5 p.m. this evening. During the leadership election and since then May has assured Tory backbenchers again and again that she would not call a snap election. There will likely be several blue casualties to the LibDems – on the whole Tory MPs really did not want an early election. The PM coming face to face with the MPs she promised she wouldn’t hold an election will be very awkward…

UPDATE: May’s meeting with the ’22 was very very short, one of the shortest ever. Tory MPs were “a little subdued”, shell shocked even, to begin with, Guido’s mole in the room reports. Though there was a big cheer and applause at the end. And cries of “Five more years…”

Snap Election Lifeline for Blairites

Jeremy Corbyn’s chief goal had been to remain as leader until the left had secured permanent control of the party. That meant staying on until the ‘McDonnell amendment’ had passed at conference and until the moderates in Labour HQ had been purged and replaced by Corbynistas. The imminent expected electoral wipeout puts this plan in peril – May’s decision is terrible for the left and the best news Blairites have had in ages. 

There is “no chance” of an attempt by Labour moderates to remove Corbyn before the election. They need the left to own this defeat. That means six weeks of Blairites staying quiet about Corbyn and “talking about saving their local hospital”, being superficially loyal and trying not giving the Corbynistas an excuse to blame them for the outcome.

In 1983, after Michael Foot had led Labour to a huge defeat, a young Jon Lansman blamed the result on “the party machine” being “in the hands of the right”. Expect the Corbynistas to use the same excuse this time round – they need a ‘Blairite betrayal’ narrative to galvanise their grassroots if they are to stay in charge after June 8.

If Corbyn refuses to go when he loses, the party could well split. Moderates do not want to fight Corbyn in a third leadership contest. They hope he will stand down, departing before the left has succeeded in seizing the commanding heights of party structures. This means the moderates could lose dozens of MPs on June 8 but then win the next leadership election and regain control of the party. This election is a lifeline for the Blairites – they need to stay quiet for 51 days while they privately betray their party and hope Corbyn is annihilated at the ballot box…

May Calls Snap Election For June 8

Theresa May has called a snap election on June 8. Developing…

Speaking to Andrew Marr in January Theresa May categorically denied there would be an early election:

Andrew Marr: Let me make this very clear, because again it’s very important. Under current law the next election will be in 2020. No ifs, no buts, no snap elections, no changing the law. Under you, is that absolutely certain, that we’re not going to see an election before 2020? 

Theresa May: I’m not going to be calling a snap election. I’ve been very clear that I think we need that period of time, that stability to be able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that election in 2020.

Downing Street also could not have been clearer last month:

“There isn’t going to be one… It is not going to happen.”

“Politics is not a game,” May liked to say while telling everyone there would no early election. Turns out she is a player…

Seen Elsewhere



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Quote of the Day

Liz Truss on the next Tory leader…

“In order to command public trust we need someone who has backed Brexit from the start, because of the situation we’re in now.”

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