British Polling Council: “No Inquiry”

The official statement from the British Polling Council says although “… the final polls were not ideal, the BPC does not feel there is a need for another formal inquiry”:

“The polls proved very good at predicting the Conservative vote, with an average of the final polls being only 0.2% higher than the actual result… They did, however, prove much less good at predicting the Labour vote, with the pollsters’ average being 5.2% below Labour’s actual share. This is only the second election since 1987 when the pollsters have underestimated the Labour share. The average poll figure for the Liberal Democrats was very close, being only 0.3% different from the result.”

Guido has calculated the above accuracy league from the BPC statement. The official final polls as per the BPC (and the BBC) show that the pollsters were on average out by 1.97%. Which could easily be a decisive margin in a general election…

Data here spreadsheet monkeys.

mdi-timer 14 June 2017 @ 16:02 14 Jun 2017 @ 16:02 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
10 DUP Policies the Tories Should Adopt

The DUP manifesto is rather better in places than that Conservative manifesto:

The DUP pledged:

  1. To reduce the rate of Corporation Tax to at least 12.5%;
  2. To freeze then cut or abolish the TV licence and reform the BBC;
  3. To cut the VAT rate for tourism businesses;
  4. To introduce a Trade Accelerator Plan including an enhanced range of initiatives to help support both new and existing exporters to explore new markets;
  5. To abolish Air Passenger Duty;
  6. To establish low tax, deregulated Freeports in economically underdeveloped parts of the UK
  7. To reduce the number of Government Departments and reduce the number of Special Advisors;
  8. To introduce a Civil Service Voluntary Exit Scheme yielding annual savings of approximately £100 million;
  9. To create new trade, investment and innovation hubs in key global markets;
  10. To introduce alternative models of public sector service delivery such as increasing the use of social enterprises.

Guido for one welcomes the eleventh-hour entry of the DUP, our new political overlords…

mdi-timer 9 June 2017 @ 15:15 9 Jun 2017 @ 15:15 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Good Morning, Theresa May Lost

Guido is going for a sleep…

mdi-timer 9 June 2017 @ 07:29 9 Jun 2017 @ 07:29 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Salmond Out

mdi-timer 9 June 2017 @ 04:36 9 Jun 2017 @ 04:36 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
CLEGG LOSES HIS SEAT

mdi-timer 9 June 2017 @ 03:08 9 Jun 2017 @ 03:08 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Caitlin Moran Calls 4 Out of 5 of Her Readers “C*nts”

Caitlin Moran has once again, unwisely, gone on a foul-mouthed Twitter rant this morning with: “voting for Labour = not being a c**t”.

Unfortunately for Moran, this makes 80% of her Times readers c**ts, as only 20% of Times readers voted for Labour in 2015. This figure pales in comparison to the 55% who voted for the Conservatives in that election.

Even worse for Moran, The Times today officially endorsed the Conservatives this morning. 

Can’t wait for her defeat column on Saturday…

UPDATE: Moran has now deleted the Tweet, possibly after a stern word from the boss.

mdi-timer 7 June 2017 @ 14:29 7 Jun 2017 @ 14:29 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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