Economists Repeatedly Wrong About UK’s Pandemic Recovery

New data from the ONS shows the UK economy is now back at pre-pandemic levels, with GDP growth at 0.9% between October and November – 0.7% larger than in February 2020, just before Covid hit. Obviously good news… although not quite the news we were all told to expect…

Back in January 2021, the FT’s annual economists’ survey painted a dire picture for the year ahead:

“Economists expect the UK economic recovery in 2021 to be slower than in peer countries, because of a lower starting point, a larger services sector, low business investment and the impact of Brexit.”

The survey asked nearly 100 economists to look into their crystal balls and predict the future. Almost all of them said they “expect the size of the economy not to return to pre-pandemic levels until the third quarter of 2022”. Scrolling through the survey made for miserable reading. Unemployment, bankruptcies and the horrors of Brexit were all supposed to thwart our recovery…

Instead, growth is now higher than pre-Covid, and unemployment is estimated at 4.2% – even after the end of furlough in September. Congratulations go to Erik Britton, Patrick Minford, and Tej Parikh, who were the only economists from the FT survey to actually get it right…

mdi-timer 14 January 2022 @ 12:45 14 Jan 2022 @ 12:45 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Top Economist: Vote Owen Smith to Block Brexit

ANATOLE KALTESKY

Anatole Kaletsky, one of the first economists to point out the severity of the Northern Rock crisis, has been emailing round telling people to sign up to Labour to get Owen Smith elected so he can block Brexit. Smith’s support for a second EU referendum has inspired the Europhile economist to send this email to friends:

“If a Second Referendum becomes official policy of the Labour Party, SNP, Liberals, Greens etc will join in and this demand will prove very hard to resist for the Tories, even if Theresa May survives as Prime Minister (which I think is no more than a 50% probability).”

He has also been tweeting his 10,000 followers the same:

Alternatively, Vote Corbyn, save Brexit…

mdi-timer 20 July 2016 @ 11:00 20 Jul 2016 @ 11:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Mervyn King: ‘Doom and Gloom Wildly Exaggerated’

“There are some threats from the EU that will no longer be relevant. So, the idea there might be a tax on financial transactions – which George Osborne challenged, took to the European Court of Justice and lost his case – now we won’t be involved in that, and my guess is that any attempt in Europe to impose such a tax will never take place now because business will simply come to the City… There are obviously uncertainties in the short run… but the idea that this is a doom and gloom story seems to be wildly exaggerated.”

Project Calm from the former Bank of England governor…

mdi-timer 27 June 2016 @ 13:18 27 Jun 2016 @ 13:18 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Ed Vaizey Brillo’d Over Brexit Budget

Pro-Remain minister Ed Vaizey repeatedly dodged Brillo’s question about which, if any, economists think Osborne’s tax-hiking spending-slashing post-Brexit budget would work. Accused of “filibustering” to avoid an answer, Vaizey then launched a bizarre attack on the Remain backing IMF’s economic credibility:

“You know full well over the last six years when George took decisions about cutting spending and raising taxes organisations like the IMF told him he was playing with fire”

At times Vaizey was literally laughing at the less than credible lines he was sent out to spin…

mdi-timer 15 June 2016 @ 12:47 15 Jun 2016 @ 12:47 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Tyrie: Government Job Would be “Greatest Honour”

TYRIE

As expected Andrew Tyrie came out for Remain today with a speech at the Centre for Policy Studies. Equally unsurprisingly, Tyrie told the room he was open to a government job in the future:

“I’ve always said it would be the greatest honour to serve in any government.”

Asked if Nadine Dorries was right that he’d been offered a “sniff of Osborne’s dirty socks”, he replied: “David Cameron’s never offered me anything. I’m not aware that he is going to me anything”. Yet…

The long-term Europhile said he was “disappointed by the EU negotiations, I felt we could have asked for more”. Tyrie has condemned both the Leave and Remain campaigns for misleading figures. What was it that made him reserve stronger criticism for Leave today?

mdi-timer 13 June 2016 @ 13:24 13 Jun 2016 @ 13:24 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Only 14.7% of Economists Oppose Brexit

economist

BSE made a big play out of “nine out of ten economists” apparently warning against Brexit this week. The figure was based on a self-selecting Ipsos MORI survey of economists from the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists. But BSE had some fun with the figures…

The survey was sent out to 3,818 economists. Only 639 (or 16.7%) replied, of which 561 said Brexit would be bad for the economy. That’s just 14.7% of the total number of economists contacted. So rather than nine out of ten economists warning against Brexit, it was actually closer one in seven. Not that you’d know that from their cheeky statistics trickery…

mdi-timer 9 June 2016 @ 16:47 9 Jun 2016 @ 16:47 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Previous Page Next Page