Sunak is going to announce that defence spending will rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2030. Current spending is a little over 2%. That’s on top of the £500 million announced for Ukraine. Defence-minded ministers Schapps, Tugendhat, Mordaunt and others have called for the move variously in op-eds over the last few weeks. Heading up to 2.5% will mean a total of £75 billion over the next six years…

UPDATE: Sunak has made the announcement. Two years after Boris…

Lord Ashcroft’s new poll will make more grim reading for the Tories. Labour poll higher than the government on every major political issue, from education and healthcare to the economy, Brexit and immigration. Crucially, and surprisingly, the public trust Labour more on defence than the Tories, from 22% to 15%. While war rages in Ukraine and the Middle East, it’s an issue that Downing Street would hope the public had faith in them about…

Guido consistently receives word from Tory MPs furious that Rishi Sunak still hasn’t committed to a date to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP yet. Meanwhile, Ashcroft’s analysis states Sunak should consider cutting his losses and head for an earlier election instead – things may only get worse. Labour tanks are firmly on the Tories’ lawn…

Ed Balls attempted a bulldozing interview strategy on Good Morning Britain this morning, only to be left with egg on his face – clearly, he’s been taking lessons from predecessor Piers. The former Shadow Chancellor took Security Minister Tom Tugendhat to task for apparent hypocrisy over increased defence spending – or rather the lack of it. Using backbench Tom’s own words against him, Balls asked minister Tom:

“Are you naive? Have you been captured by Treasury orthodoxy? Or are you another politician who spoke out from the backbenches, and now you’ve got your feet behind the desk in the Foreign Office, you’ve forgotten what you used to stand for?”

It’s a fair question. Unfortunately for Ed, his execution was left lacking, and Tom was well-prepped to hit back:

“First of all, I’m not in the Foreign Office, I’m in the Home Office. Secondly, you can speak for yourself but not for me. Third, if you read the articles [Balls interrupts] it actually talks about defence and intelligence in the articles [Balls interrupts] Ed I’m delighted for you to interview yourself if you like, or you can listen to my answer…”

Tugendhat was smiling through gritted teeth as he returned fire. Guido leaves it to co-conspirators to decide who won this round…

The man tasked with defending Britain is now engaged in open warfare with his own junior minister. This morning Ben Wallace returned fire on Veterans’ Affairs Minister Johnny Mercer after the latter accused him of posturing ahead of the budget. Speaking to LBC, Wallace reminded Nick Ferrari that Mercer is only a junior minister, and “luckily doesn’t have to run the budget“. For those wondering how two Ministers ended up fighting each other, here’s a brief recap:

At the end of January, Wallace told Sky News “Defence has been hollowed out for years“, and “the British Army has fallen behind its peer group.” The next day, Guido revealed audio of Johnny Mercer saying Wallace had been “disingenuous” and his claims were “fundamentally not true” at an event for the Coalition for Global Prosperity. Comments he initially denied even making, until Guido published the audio…

Mercer then doubled down on his claim, telling LBC “it is obviously not credible to say that the money has been taken out of defence.” Now Wallace is pushing back with a department-measuring contest, pointing out he’s in charge of 224,000 staff, while Mercer only has “12 people in the office”. “He’s not the Secretary of State”…

Now a third soldier has entered the battle – Johnny’s wife Felicity Cornelius-Mercer:

It’s war…

For sixty years, the Munich Security Conference has traditionally been the forum for international decision-makers and experts to discuss security challenges. Whereas the World Economic Forum at Davos discusses climate change and diversity, the Munich Security Conference discusses nuclear security and global conflict hotspots. The focus is usually on German and European responses to global and regional challenges. German strategic policy is a mess; wrong about Russia for years, and slow on weapons. Yet next month the German elite will hold its famous conference attempting to tackle the big geopolitical questions with a straight face. With Scholz in a ridiculous foreign policy mess, Germany’s leadership is lost on foreign policy.

Scholz has been craven on Ukraine. Even today as Britain sends Challenger tanks he will only send Leopards if the US (which has done more than anyone) sends Abrams. While the organisers are not publicly calling it an antidote to the Munich Security Conference, the London Defence Conference clearly aims to be. An invitation-only two days in London at Bush House, King’s College London – for leaders, policymakers, boffins, military and media-types. The insurgent British alternative Conference launching today is being chaired by Lord Salisbury and run by Iain Martin. Britain is the biggest military power in Western Europe – an event of this kind makes sense.