Starmer let Sunak hammer in his tax attack last night: a £2,000 hike for working families. The figure is derived from Treasury analysis of Tory-supplied Labour policies, which they insist are to the letter. Labour has moved to kill the statistic this morning with the release of a letter from Treasury Permanent Secretary James Bowler to Darren Jones which claims that, because it “includes costs beyond those provided by the Civil Service, the “Labour’s Tax Rises” dossier “should not be presented as having come from the Civil Service“. Despite hysteria from anti-Tory corners of the lobby, the letter doesn’t say that Civil Servants didn’t produce the costings at all…

Sunak claimed that debates would change the narrative – he did lay down several dividing lines. The tax attack splashes The Times, Express, Mail and Telegraph this morning. A tactical success that shows there is life in the Tory beast yet…

Keir Starmer made a rather revealing comment in last night’s leaders’ debate, which has landed overnight as a key stumbling block for him. The two leaders were asked if they would pay for private healthcare if their loved one desperately needed it. Sunak unequivocally said yes – he would, like most people, if they could gather the funds, in order to treat their family member. Starmer was not so compassionate…

Starmer answered that he would never pay for private healthcare, ever – adding that his wife works in the NHS. The idea that Starmer would rather watch a loved one die than cough up the cash based on ideology may not quite be the win LOTO may think it is. Either it’s heartless, or it’s a lie…

Sunak and Starmer will go head to head tonight in the first leaders debate of the General Election campaign, and the pressure is on Rishi to deliver. CCHQ is spiralling over Nigel’s decision to stand which will no doubt eat into the Tories’ vote share. Meanwhile, Tory candidates and HQ staff are still angry about the snap decision to call the election early. Very few were prepared…

So far, the campaign for the Tories hasn’t gone smoothly, announcing policies such as National Service and a cap on visa for migrants – though with very few details accompanying them. Starmer will be sure to attack Sunak on the lack of detail and the Tories’ track record on these issues. Rishi will likely blast Starmer for his former friends like Corbyn and LOTO’s turmoil over the Labour left purge, which ended with him conceding on letting Diane Abbott back into the fray. Starmer has Deputy Leader Angela Rayner to thank for that one…

The chatter amongst the denizens of SW1 is that Sunak needs to nail this debate if he is to have any hope of a bump in the polls and support from the party – one Tory candidate is making their decision on whether they defect to Reform based on the outcome. The hour-long debate will be hosted by Manchester’s MediaCity UK, and moderated by Julie Etchingham. Co-conspirators can watch it live at 9pm on ITV. Stay tuned to Guido for the best coverage…

Nicola Sturgeon has announced she is to snub the upcoming Holyrood election Question Time special, instead sending the party’s deputy leader Keith Brown in her place. The SNP argues Sturgeon has been “scrutinised by the media nearly every day over the last year”. Whether she ever provided any answers is another question…

It makes cynical political sense for Sturgeon to not take part – she has the most to lose. Guido thought it’d be interesting, however, to see how the SNP reacted when both Theresa May and Boris Johnson also skipped party election debates in 2017 and 2019. After May announced her refusal to debate, Angus Robertson said it showed an “unwillingness to debate showed a lack of belief in her arguments.”:

“If the Prime Minister is so confident of her hard-Brexit, pro-austerity, anti-immigration case why won’t she debate opposition leaders?

“Can the Prime Minister tell people why she is running scared of a televised debate with Nicola Sturgeon?”

When Boris refused to debate Sturgeon in 2019, the SNP put out a Facebook graphic accusing him of “running scared” and being a “big feartie”.

Sturgeon hasn’t been having a great campaign, getting dragged into debate scraps with Douglas Ross, and appearing relatively low-energy. Today’s poll has the SNP’s constituency vote share down by 3%, and their list voting intention down to 38%. It’s amazing someone who’s hosted unchallenging live television briefings almost every day throughout the last year has suddenly become camera-shy…