Disgruntled Tory MPs who have shown ankle to Adam Afriyie were surprised to hear his allies tell them to please refrain from writing any letters to Graham Brady. “We were asked to ‘wait’,” one tells Guido, “not sure until when though.” The theory goes that Afriyie believes he has enough names pledged to trigger a vote of confidence, if he ever chooses to push the button. Guido is sceptical. With the maths as it is, as it stands it would be a suicide mission. 

As Ben Brogan wrote this morning:

“A confidence vote would have untold consequences for the party. It would look self-indulgent, not least because it is unlikely to result in Mr Cameron’s ejection, and therefore change at the top. It would serve only to highlight his – and the party’s – internal weakness.”

It seems Afriyie is acutely aware of this fact.

One theory put to Guido is that Afriyie, and the disgruntled 2005 backbenchers around him, are only in it for jobs. Gambling that if they can play peacemakers behind the scenes between Cameron/Osborne and the Tory Right, then they would be rewarded. There is nothing about the character or past behaviour of the leadership that points to this plan working though. There is only going to be one loser here…

Andy Coulson offers more words of wisdom for Dave in GQ this morning. Stage eight of his masterplan calls for Liam Fox to be brought back in from the cold:

“Unlike the rarely effective but always politically flawed Nigel Farage, when it comes to immigration he should deal in fact and not the stoking of irrational fears. William Hague is the man to take on and beat Farage and persuade those unloved Tories feeling the pull of UKIP to stand firm. He should be tasked with devising and leading the strategy against the party and enlist the currently under-employed Liam Fox to help.”

There are some choice words for “Sir Jeremy Who-wood” too:

“It’s time for the prime minister to wean himself off the company of the big brains in the civil service and leave himself more room to operate politically. The reforms are well underway. Progress should be carefully monitored but the hard yards in the company of Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood et al for David are already nearing their end – at least until after the election. The prime minister should spend more time with the people who might actually help win in 2015 rather than senior civil servants who have revelled in the power and professional satisfaction the coalition has brought them. I suspect Sir Jeremy and co would rather enjoy five more years of the same.”

He goes on to call Clegg “a bit of a minger”. As Boris said, “impeccable” advice…

The President of the European Parliament has kicked off at Cameron. In a interview with Paris Match, Martin Schulz has the cheek to call for more democracy in the EU, while slamming Dave for showing some ankle:

“The first first objective of a prime minister who announces a referendum in 2017, when he has an election in 2015,  is elections, not the exiting the EU. He has opened a Pandora’s box for the benefit of ultra-radicals. Out of the EU would be costly for Britain.”

They don’t like it up ’em.

And sticks it to Dave, who he is “absolutely increasingly confident” will win in 2015. He sounds it…

Andy Coulson has surfaced for the first time since his Downing Street walk out in 2011 to dispense some pearls of wisdom for those he left behind. Writing for July’s GQ, he gives “his ten-point masterplan for saving David Cameron and stopping Labour in 2015”. And he sticks it to Boris too. Guido is sure the advice will be welcomed with open arms…

Despite awaiting his September trial, Coulson has clearly been keeping one eye on the ball:

“The prime minister must push [Miliband] to take positions: expose his strategy (to keep his head down, silently hope that the economy continues to go wonky and, well, just be the other guy), challenge him to take a view on the tricky issues opposition politicians love to duck….I’m struck by how detached the opposition front bench appears to be from their leader…I just don’t think they rate him very much. And if they don’t there’s a good chance the public will feel the same way once they get to know him properly.”

He’s even got even stronger words for Balls:

“The prime minister should pray Ed Balls remains shadow chancellor until the election…Appointing him as George’s opposite number was the Miliband gift that will keep on giving… The Tories must look for the divisions and make the most of them a) because they are most certainly real – always a plus – and b) because it’s history repeating itself. We are in this hole at least in part because of the shamefully dysfunctional Blair/Brown relationship. Labour’s Two Eds dislike each other and each thinks he is smarter than the other. The Conservatives should imagine in some detail how it would work if they actually won…and share that vision with the British public.”

Other than what might come out at the Brooks and Coulson trial, the Tories other favourite topic of parlour conversation is Boris, and Coulson does not disappoint there either. The Mayor’s card is marked, it seems. Coulson reckons Boris wants the job but won’t tarnish the brand by moving against the PM.

“Number Ten’s Boris strategy should be simple.  Support his good ideas, advise privately on the bad ones, but only engage publicly if absolutely necessary – and celebrate Boris’ considerable successes. Boris Johnson desperately wants to be prime minister and David has known that fact longer than most.  When Boris asked me to pass on the message that he was keen to stand as mayor of London, David responded, “Well, if he wins, he’ll want my job next.”  If proof were needed that our PM is a man untroubled by self doubt, it came in his next sentence, “So I think he’ll be a bloody brilliant candidate for us”… Stabbing David, or anyone else for that matter, in the back would be distinctly off brand – just not very Boris.  He would much prefer to see David fail miserably in the election and ride in on his bike to save party and country.”

A little revenge, perhaps, for Boris saying at the height of the phone-hacking scandal that he had warned Dave and George off hiring the former Screws editor. You have to wonder what might be in that diary…

Even David Dimbleby is piling into the PM today. Apparently things at the Bullingdon Club were far more civilised when he was a member:

“I loved being elected to the Bullingdon Club and I’m very proud of the uniform that I can still get into. We never did these disgusting disgraceful things that Boris did. We never broke windows or got wildly drunk. It was a completely different organisation from what it became when Boris Johnson, David Cameron, and George Osborne joined, who seemed to be ashamed of it, pulling their photographs and so on.”

Guido is sceptical, the Buller has had the smash-the-place up reputation for a very long time…