By a 19 point margin Tory members want their MPs to back Boris according to YouGov. This follows major Tory donors coming out and saying they too back Boris. MPs will have to add this to their calculations.  Downing Street will be pleased to see both donors and members coming out in support…

UPDATE: ConservativeHome’s snap survey of party members shows 55% think MPs should vote to remove Boris, with 41% supporting him and 3% claiming they don’t know. Not quite as easy reading for No.10. Last month those figures were 41%, 53% and six% respectively…

Guido congratulates the Parliamentary IT services on their new seach functionality on the parliament.uk website. You can now search out MPs by gender. Or not. It is early days – so far no MP has self-defined as non-binary. Grindr style functionality at last…

Consumer confidence is now lower than it was after the 2008 credit crisis or the days of Covid lockdown. Lower than it was during the period of high unemployment in the late 70’s and early 80s. Objectively living standards are better now than they were in the past, employment levels and prospects are better too, yet people are gloomier. Have we all become snowflakes?

The UK consumer confidence index as measured by research company GfK fell 2 percentage points to minus 40 in May, its lowest level since records began in 1974, according to GfK. On the other hand UK retail sales volumes unexpectedly rose by 1.4% month-on-month in April. So fears of inflation are not dampening spending….

At the time of going to pixel, 146 of 200 councils have declared their results. The Tories are down by 260 seats, Labour is up by 158, and the LibDems are up by 143. The Tories’ losses at present don’t present a splitting migraine for Boris, given that using their much hyped MRP modelling Electoral Calculus – not CCHQ as the Labour-supporting press were claiming – predicted an 800 seat loss. A 500 seat loss would have been genuinely bad, 800 disastrous.

The crucial point, however, is where the Tories’ vote losses are concentrated. Labour has gained 68 seats in London, with the Tories losing 83, and the LibDems gaining 15. Outside London it’s a different story: Labour has gained 114 seats, whereas the LibDems have picked up 126 and the Greens 45. This is a better day for the LibDems and the Greens in England than it is for Labour.

To Guido’s surprise the LibDems are making significant inroads in the South East and South West. This will naturally scare old-school home county Tories who fear losing their seats, though should remember it’s classic protest vote stuff. Guido reckons CCHQ is much happier to see Tory votes temporarily siphoned off to protest parties like the LibDems and Greens than Labour, as it indicates they’re not sold on Starmer and therefore potentially retrievable at the next election. Sill lots to play for as we head into the evening – Guido won’t be foolish enough to make any predictions…

The parties are already spinning and downplaying expectations. Electoral Calculus is a more neutral source and they polled residents of the 201 district and unitary councils up for election, whether and how they intended to vote on today. The poll of 2,148 adults was conducted between 27-28 April and was used to produce a dynamic MRP prediction of the local elections. This is the now fashionable technique that has been used with some success after a rocky Brexit period for pollsters.

Electoral Calculus are forecasting

• Swing of 6% to Labour away from Conservatives
• Labour set to hold 3,500 council seats, with Conservatives holding fewer than 1,000 council seats
• Labour likely to gain around 16 councils
• Conservatives could lose several councils, including the flagships of Wandsworth and Westminster

The net result Electoral Calculus predicts is Labour gaining 819 seats and the Tories losing 548 seats. To be honest, the Tories will accept that as normal mid-term losses. What they won’t be happy with is the loss of control of councils, expected to include Barnet, Basildon, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Southampton, Thurrock, Wandsworth and Westminster. The loss of the latter two flagship councils will have an effect on the psyche of Tory MPs. Guido is reluctant to make any predictions, aside a gut suspicion that Ed Davey will not make as much progress as he wants. The LibDems just don’t seem to be making a national impact…

*Graphic for England and Wales only.

Consumer prices increased at an annualised rate of 7% last month, up from 6.2% in February according to ONS data released this morning.

This exceeds the Bank of England’s target of 2%, and higher than the rate of “around 6%” that it forecast at its last meeting. The Bank of England is well behind the curve…