Consumer Price Inflation Hits 11.1%, a 40 Year High

The ONS this morning reports that the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 9.6% in the 12 months to October 2022, up from 8.8% in September. CPI rose by 11.1%, up from 10.1%. These increases were driven by gas and electricity prices and have caused CPI to hit a 40-year high.

mdi-timer 16 November 2022 @ 07:23 16 Nov 2022 @ 07:23 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Lords is a Working Legislature, Not a Retirement Home

This week there has been a coordinated attempt to drive the outrage bus over Boris’s resignation list, it hasn’t really got going – probably because the list is a lot shorter than most suspected (so much for the so called ‘lavender list’ warnings that Boris would try to appoint 50 peers) and the fact the MPs on it are deferring any by-elections. Which is a peace-making gesture to Rishi that he would be unwise to spurn…

This morning’s Telegraph picks on Charlotte Owen, whose crime appears to be that she is a young woman in politics, reporting disapprovingly that she is 27 years of age, she is actually 29. The Times complained yesterday that Ross Kempsell was in his twenties, he is 30. If you are going to thunder about someone’s age, best get it right.

There are many issues with the Lords and how appointments are made that need reforming, appointing younger peers is surely not one of them. The average age in the upper chamber is 71, 13 members are aged 90 or over. The highest concentration of members from all parties is in the 70–79 age band, except the bishops, whose members mostly fall into the spritely 60 – 69 age band. The house is regularly referred to as a retirement home, which it should not be, considering it is a working legislature. Injecting some youth might be energising…

There are recent precedents for young advisers in their thirties being appointed by departing PMs; Cameron made Nat Wei a Lord at 33 and his press secretary Gabby Bertin was 38 when she became a Baroness, Jo Jo Penn was 34 when Theresa May put her in ermine. Let’s also not forget that the previous youngest person ever to receive a life peerage at 32 years of age, Lord Redesdale, was proposed by the LibDems in 2000….

mdi-timer 11 November 2022 @ 17:37 11 Nov 2022 @ 17:37 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Rishi Inherits 37 Point Polling Deficit

The Tory polling position is the worst Guido can remember. The only way is up…

mdi-timer 25 October 2022 @ 14:34 25 Oct 2022 @ 14:34 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Inferring the Outcome With Partial Data

Using the figures we have as of Sunday evening – Rishi on 153, Boris on 76, and Penny on 28 – we have 72% of MPs having made an indication. Is that enough to base an inference upon? Let’s try…

The known preference percentages break down as below:

Apply those percentages to the unknown 100 MPs we get

  • Rishi 153 + 60 = 213
  • Boris 76 + 30  = 106
  • Penny 28 + 11 = 39

Allowing for rounding errors and switchers that is in the “close to call” territory for Boris. One source in the Rishi camp on the other hand told Guido that he thought there were “too many headbangers” undeclared and Boris would pass the threshold. We’ll know soon enough…

mdi-timer 23 October 2022 @ 17:22 23 Oct 2022 @ 17:22 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Who’s Backing Who: Weekend Updates

The Spreadsheet is being updated in real time. As always, MPs and campaign teams should get in touch with updates…

Click here to access the full spreadsheet.

mdi-timer 22 October 2022 @ 09:52 22 Oct 2022 @ 09:52 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Who’s Backing Who Day 2: Rishi Overtakes Boris

The Spreadsheet is being updated in real time. As always, MPs should get in touch with updates…

Click here to access the full spreadsheet.

mdi-timer 21 October 2022 @ 10:51 21 Oct 2022 @ 10:51 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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