Some good news for Rishi this morning, he’s getting somewhere with one of his five pledges – to halve inflation. According to ONS figures, Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.6% in October, down from 10.7% in January when Rishi first promised to halve inflation, the lowest rate since November 2021. Sunak shouldn’t get too excited however, as one statistic shows high inflation over the last two years has cost UK workers the equivalent of a 3p income tax rise. Given how much inflation has grown, a halve in the rate it’s growing isn’t something to be “popping champagne corks” over, as Shadow Chancellor Reeves put it…

The fall is mainly due to lower energy prices, as gas costs are were down 31% and electricity costs fell by 15.6%, though core inflation did fall from 6.1% to 5.7%. What the energy markets give they could just as easily take away. Still a long road to the Bank of England’s actual inflation target of 2%…

Ahead of the Autumn Statement next week, Survation conducted a 12,000 sample MRP survey of voting intentions related to a series of economic issues on behalf of the UK Spirits Alliance. The overall analysis found that two thirds of voters put the cost of living as one their top threes issues which will most affect how they vote at the next election. Labour leads on the cost of living issue and the economy generally. With 52% of voters associating the Conservatives with “more taxation” they have managed to lose their unique selling point as the low tax party to Labour.

Drilling down into the data for the views of voters in the Chancellor’s own new boundaries seat – Godalming and Ash – reveals that even in the Surrey Tory heartlands the majority (52%) think they’re paying too much tax, unsurprisingly 57% would support a duty cut and nearly two-thirds (62%) associate the Tories with high taxes. Following the corporation tax hike 55% don’t think the Tories support small business. Not an image the Chancellor will want in his constituency…

In the PM’s new boundaries seat of Richmond and Northallerton 55% want duty frozen or reduced, three fifths associate the Tories with high taxes and half (50%) don’t think the Tories support Small and Medium Businesses. The former Chancellor turned PM has only himself to blame.

Next week we are not expecting tax cuts in the Autumn Statement – we are told that can only happen when inflation is slayed. If the PM wants to disassociate high taxes from the Tories and win back the Blue Wall heartlands at least they should resist raising taxes on the wine and spirits that Tory voters drink. If they want to compound their problems with their core voters, hitting them with hike on their gin and tonics should do it… 

A bad start to the week for Rishi, as an Ipsos poll reveals his net satisfaction rating has hit a new record low of -44, equalling Theresa May’s ratings shortly before she left office. Some good news for the PM, however, is that there’s no surge in support for Sir Keir Starmer either, with his net satisfaction rating coming to -22. Only 38% of people think Labour is ready for government, down from 43% in July.

Rishi won’t take much solace in Starmer’s ratings though, as Labour holds a 20-point lead, and nearly 86% of adults believe Britain needs “a fresh team of leaders” including 65% of Tory voters. This is 10% higher than in March 2010, when Gordon Brown’s government was in its final throes. 

It is a truism that there are only two types of general election; “time for change” and “don’t let the other guys ruin it”. Can you guess which type the coming general election will be?

It has been a constant that the Labour Party polls better than Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak polls better than the Conservative Party. At minus 41, Rishi’s approval rating is now scoring lower than Boris (-40) when he was ousted as Prime Minister. Just saying…

The Labour Party received more funding than the Conservatives in Q2 of 2023 – even with CCHQ bringing in £5,000,000 from Frank Hester. Labour raked in £10,510,260, 4% more than the Conservatives on £10,510,260. However, it isn’t all bad for CCHQ, excluding public funds (which disproportionately benefit the opposition), the Tories retain their top spot by some £2,000,000. Labour’s biggest donors were Lord Sainsbury (£3,000,000) and Gary Lubner (£2,200,000) whilst the Tories also got a million pound boost from hedge fund boss Alan Howard. No sign of Dale Vince, this quarter.

The overall total of political donations this quarter was £24,438,482. Almost double the figure from the same period last year. We’re entering an election year…

The vast majority of British voters think the behaviour of the environmental extremists who scaled Rishi’s Richmond mansion was “unacceptable”. Is the roof finally caving in on the eco mob?

According to Omnisis, 60% of voters condemned the protest, with this number climbing to 69% if “don’t know” responses are removed. Just 27% of voters thought the protest was justified. No wonder CCHQ is so keen on linking Labour to the eco-clowns…