Bad Al’s Magical Numerical Thinking

Alastair Campbell is going for a repeat of his 2010 performance when he toured the studios arguing, most famously with Adam Boulton, that Gordon Brown should stay in Downing Street as Prime Minister because the Tories had not really won. Al’s now arguing, after saying he voted LibDem because Labour weren’t anti-Brexit enough, that if you add up all the remain supporting parties’ votes, remain won. Despite the Brexit Party clearly and obviously winning. The clue is in the name.

The remainstream Times is in peak Pravda-mode:

We can argue about whether Labour is or isn’t a pro-Brexit party. However in their own campaign literature the LibDems said Labour were a pro-Brexit party, Greens and Change UK also said Labour were a pro-Brexit party, even the party’s Deputy Leader said they were pro-Brexit. Bad Al himself voted LibDem because he thought they were not anti-Brexit enough for him!

The Conservative Party, which ran on the slogan that they were “the only party which can deliver Brexit” is somehow not counted by The Times as a Leave party. Laughable.

mdi-timer 27 May 2019 @ 11:12 27 May 2019 @ 11:12 mdi-comment Comments
Khan’s £1-a-Ride Tax Starts Today

Sadiq’s new emissions tax means private hire vehicles will need to pay the Congestion Charge of up to £11.50 per day when driving in the central London “Ultra Low Emission Zone”. As a result from today a £1 central London fee will be added to every Uber trip that starts, ends or passes through the city centre. Khan’s tax is being passed directly on to consumers, it will also hike costs for London’s shops and accelerate the shift to online retailers, which is why the Taxpayers’ Alliance dubs his charge zone an “Ultra Low Enterprise Zone”.

Khan says it is to combat air pollution. In which case it is irrelevant to the rapidly improving trend:

Despite a growing population air pollution in London was 900% higher within living memory. So what is he trying to achieve? He’s raising revenue to splurge for his re-election. Car drivers in the suburbs don’t vote for him and businesses don’t have votes, so he calculates he can tax ’em without losing votes.

In fact across the UK Britain is getting cleaner air at rapid rate. Khan’s tax is neither here nor literally there.Every time Guido gets into an Uber he’ll curse Khan’s tax. So will Londoners…

mdi-timer 8 April 2019 @ 13:47 8 Apr 2019 @ 13:47 mdi-comment Comments
Bursting Politico’s Twitter Bubble

Fascinating article this morning from Politico Europe about The Westminster Twitter Bubble. It contains lots of stuff on which MPs have the most MPs following them as well as which journalists and which media outlets are most influential in terms of being followed by MPs. Above is their chart showing the research results for media outlets. They appear to accidentally have left Guido off the list…

In an effort to be helpful Guido has added at the bottom how it would look if he was included. It reveals that little old Guido is followed by quite a few MPs. More than all of those other media outlets…

309 MPs in total follow Guido. Politico is followed by 45 MPs. Anyone who suspects this omission might be because Guido and Politico compete for advertising revenue based on how influential our audience is, has a suspicious mind. You are either in front of Guido, or you are behind. Substantially in Politico’s case…

mdi-timer 5 April 2019 @ 10:36 5 Apr 2019 @ 10:36 mdi-comment Comments
Tory Leadership Hopefuls: Who Are You?

We could be days away from a Tory leadership race if Theresa May loses a no confidence vote. The jostling for position on the Tory benches is becoming blatant. Leadership hopefuls are tapping up donors for support, assembling campaign teams and beaming as they glad-hand fellow MPs. With that in mind WPI Strategy commissioned a 2,000 head poll from Deltapoll with fieldwork done last week (25/26 March). They asked the public “Who would you recognise in the street?”

David Lidington would be recognised by 1 in 20 people – which seems on the high side. Liz Truss would be recognised by 1 in 14 people proving that not everyone is on Instagram. Dominic Raab will be disappointed that his brief profile raising period as Brexit Secretary means that 1 in 9 people claim they know his face. Then we get into potential leaders who do have some recognition with voters. Amber, Saj and Hunt are recognised by a quarter to a third of voters, Mogg (who is not running) and Gove are recognised by two fifths of voters. There is only one candidate who stands out with over three quarters of the public recognising him – Boris.

mdi-timer 2 April 2019 @ 08:51 2 Apr 2019 @ 08:51 mdi-comment Comments
Tory Leadership Candidate Polling Mixed

Ipsos-MORI have got a poll out for the Evening Standard, Theresa May’s net approval rating with the public whilst negative is 19 points better than Jeremy Corbyn’s negative rating. Sajid Javid has the best ratings of the Tory leadership candidates.

Among Tory voters the front runners are neck and neck in the “having what it takes to be PM” stakes. Boris has the most negative rating and yet with members – who have an actual vote in the seleection – he is streets ahead…

mdi-timer 27 March 2019 @ 14:34 27 Mar 2019 @ 14:34 mdi-comment Comments
Womens’ Advance in Politics

Guido has crunched the numbers for International Women’s Day, looking at the historic dataset for British Prime Minister’s stretching back to Walpole. Despite the brocialists claims to be the party to advance the status of women, they have never in all their history elected a woman leader, in fact in every Labour Party leadership election women candidates have always got the least votes from the brocialist membership. In every single Labour leadership election, ever.

Nor have the Liberal Democrats or their Liberal Party predecessor’s had a women leader. It is quite something to think that every woman Tory leader has become PM and every woman Labour leadership candidate has got the least votes from the Labour Party membership. Happy International Women’s Day!

mdi-timer 8 March 2019 @ 12:06 8 Mar 2019 @ 12:06 mdi-comment Comments
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