General Public Now Rates Hunt & Boris Equally

Jeremy Hunt will be pleased with this YouGov poll which suggests the public is warming to him. In a post-Brexit election both leadership hopefuls will score 33% – which is news – last month Boris scored 34% to Hunt’s 30% – this tie is of course statistically within the margin of error. In reality without Brexit happening British political norms will be shattered and so will the chances of a Tory majority. The problem for Hunt is that the numbers for Tories are little moved and he is well behind Boris with the people who have votes… party members.

mdi-timer 28th June 2019 @ 2:54 pm 28th Jun 2019 @ 2:54 pm mdi-comment Comments
Who’s Backing Who: Disruptive Rory Makes Some Gains

With 7 out of 10 MPs having declared their preferences, Rory has managed post debate to nab 2 of Matt Hancock’s previous backers. Rory has, as Katy Balls points out, disrupted Hancock’s hopes, messed up Hunt’s strategy and given Boris hating MPs an alternative to Gove. Despite Rory having the fewest MP backers the betting markets currently make Rory second favourite

UPDATE: Matt Hancock is backing Boris.

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mdi-timer 16th June 2019 @ 9:26 pm 16th Jun 2019 @ 9:26 pm mdi-comment Comments
Tax Thresholds Have Not Kept Up With Middle Class Earnings

Boris Johnson is proposing raising the threshold for paying higher rate income tax to £80,000. It is currently at £50,000. This means that income tax on earnings between £50,000 and £80,000 will fall from 40% to 20%. Because the national insurance thresholds would rise too, the total income tax and employee national insurance on earned income will fall from 42% to 32%. This represents a much needed tax cut for millions of middle class taxpayers.

In 2018-19, the higher rate threshold was £46,350. This was increased to £50,000 for 2019-20. According to research from the Taxpayers’ Alliance if governments since Blair in 1997 had increased the threshold in line with earnings, it would have been £58,895 by next year. If governments had increased the threshold in line with earnings since Margaret Thatcher’s last budget in 1988-89, it would have been £73,268 by next year. The higher rate was never designed to be paid by millions of what Corbyn’s 2017 manifesto called “ordinary households”…

Fiscal drag is real and has dragged millions of middle class families into a tax bracket that was only ever intended to be paid by the rich. For Conservative candidates to oppose a much needed reset of the thresholds to keep up with inflation and earnings increases is incomprehensible. These are the middle class voters that have to be won back from the Labour and Brexit parties…

mdi-timer 12th June 2019 @ 8:58 am 12th Jun 2019 @ 8:58 am mdi-comment Comments
Who’s Backing Who Sunday Afternoon Update

The Saj got the Ruth endorsement which whilst nice to have doesn’t matter that much as she is not an MP. Boris added James Brokenshire from the Cabinet to the ERG’s Steve Baker and Priti Patel. James Clevery fell in behind the front leader as well. The betting markets tell the tale below, Hunt is now the second favourite after Boris. Gove’s odds are lengthening. Leadsom is an inexplicable 9/1, Rory is 30/1, Saj is 40/1, Raab is 60/1 and Hancock is 300/1. Talk is now about who will fall in behind whom…

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mdi-timer 9th June 2019 @ 3:26 pm 9th Jun 2019 @ 3:26 pm mdi-comment Comments
Who’s Backing Who

Different graphical format this afternoon. Of the declared MPs just over a quarter have come out for Boris, Gove has hoovered up nearly a fifth, with Hunt and Raab lining up behind him. The Saj is in single figures percentage-wise. Hancock is an also ran on 6%. Despite appearing to be in the red zone under the new rules without enough backers to qualify, the teams around Harper, McVey, Stewart, Leadsom and Gyimah all insist they have the requisite 8 MPs backing them in order to qualify. Not sure why now that the PM has resigned why they not come forward and made their names public… they will of course have only themselves to blame for their humiliation if it turns out on Monday evening they were not telling the truth…

mdi-timer 8th June 2019 @ 12:35 pm 8th Jun 2019 @ 12:35 pm mdi-comment Comments
Scotland Ready for Raab and Will Back Boris

Remainer Ruth Davidson had been briefing until recently that she would lead a bloc of Scottish MPs to block Boris being selected on the grounds that he will go down very badly in Scotland. However it turns out that when you drill down into the regional data tables of the YouGov poll of all voters for the Tories under different leaders, that actually Brexiteers have more support in Scotland than Remainers. 21% of Scots are ready for Raab and 20% would back Boris. Aberdeen’s own Michael Gove would score only 19% – the same as Theresa May. Remainers Jeremy Hunt (18%) and Sajid Javid (16%) actually poll worse than Theresa May…

Maybe Ruth – who was one of the leaders of the Remain campaign – should listen to her voters rather than her heart on who would be the best Tory party leader. Tory voters in Scotland are pro-Brexit, electing a remainer will actually drive Scottish Tories to vote for the Brexit Party…

mdi-timer 5th June 2019 @ 5:46 am 5th Jun 2019 @ 5:46 am mdi-comment Comments
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