Data Undemocratically Unleashed

This morning another email comes from the database of Rudd’s Remainers which you may remember split acrimoniously into different factions in its pre-election People’s Vote incarnation for reasons none of us can quite remember. Tom Baldwin and James McCrory were kicked out and it all sort of fizzled out.

Now it seems yet again to be rebranding as Democracy Unleashed, using a database that has been illegally re-purposed – something that the LibDems got heavily fined for doing. Obviously to avoid that they sent their email this morning signed by the CEO of Open Britain, an older incarnation under the Democracy Unleashed branding. It is a basic tenet of EU GDPR law that data gathered for one purpose can not be used for another without permission. Permission they have neither sought nor been given…

mdi-timer 29 June 2020 @ 11:00 29 Jun 2020 @ 11:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
How the Four Nations Compare on Covid

Seeing as the Scottish and Welsh executives have got assertive today about their differing approaches – nations under the respective control of the SNP and the Labour Party – it seemed to Guido like a good moment to compare their efforts on testing for Covid-19 and fighting the spread of the disease. Using data from the regional public health authorities published for May 9* it would seem that England is way ahead of the other regions. England was testing for Covid at rate far ahead of the regions…

How successful have the measures to reduce the number of cases been – when adjusted for population size? Wales had substantially more new cases compared to the other regions.

It is clear from the official figures that Scotland and Wales are doing less well when it comes to testing as well as suppressing the number of new cases. Yet their heads of government this morning seem more focused on slogans…

*A previous version of this used incorrect data published on May 9 rather than published for the date of May 9. This has now been corrected. According to Scot Gov Data 1,901 tests were done on May 9. A now deleted press release from Scotland’s Chief Medical Officer Directorate claimed 3,792 tests were carried out on May 9. We have used the official statistic.
N.B. There is a lot of disagreement about the differing methods of recording deaths. The differing ways Covid deaths are recorded in care homes arguably renders the statistics unusable. At some future point a comparison of excess deaths will be made.
mdi-timer 11 May 2020 @ 10:43 11 May 2020 @ 10:43 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Data Scientists Predict UK Virus First Wave Over End of May

Based on publicly available data, scientists from the Singapore University of Technology and Design’s Data-Driven Innovation Lab are predicting the course of COVID-19 developments as a complement to monitoring confirmed cases. They are forecasting that the UK’s first wave will, in this instance, see 97% of the total expected epidemic cases realised by May 17 and 99% by May 30. According to their model the UK was a week behind Italy, 2 weeks behind Germany and a day in front of the USA

*Their SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model is regressed with data from different countries to estimate the pandemic life cycle curves and predict when the pandemic might end in respective countries and the world, with codes from Milan Batista and data from Our World in Data. Given the rapidly changing situations, the predictive monitors are updated daily with the latest data. Motivation, theory, method, and caution are in this paper.

mdi-timer 28 April 2020 @ 15:44 28 Apr 2020 @ 15:44 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Boris’s Less-Than-Surprising Work Return Date

This morning The Telegraph splashes that Boris is preparing to return back to the helm of Government by next Monday, with Boris telling aides to schedule one-on-one virtual meetings with Cabinet Ministers in the meantime to get back up to speed. Is it any surprise though?

Some appear to be surprised by the new timetable, pointing to a previous FT piece which cited May 7th as the PM’s preferred return date. In reality, this timetable was never realistic; two days after Boris was admitted to Intensive Care, Guido covered an expert in The Times who said Boris would need one week’s rest per day in St. Thomas’s ICU. His stay ended up totalling three days. A three-week recovery period would take Boris up to a week yesterday, so keen-to-return Boris is, in fact, only returning to the helm three days earlier than expected.

Boris has spent this week slowly increasing his workload, including daily updates with Raab and tuning into the first digital PMQs and calling the Queen and Trump, The latter of whom said “I will tell you, he sounded incredible, he was ready to go… It’s like the old Boris, tremendous energy, tremendous drive.”

Unfortunately, Dr. Donald later went on to undermine confidence in his medical judgement by appearing to speculate about lung “disinfectant” to protect against Coronavirus… 

mdi-timer 24 April 2020 @ 08:43 24 Apr 2020 @ 08:43 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Under Tories Poor Have Got Richer, Rich Have Got Poorer

Figures out from the ONS prove what Guido has been highlighting for a decade of Tory budgets. Tory Chancellors since Osborne have been redistributionist, taxes and welfare measures have bashed the rich and boosted the poor. Since the credit crisis those on the highest incomes have seen their income fall by 5% and those on lowest incomes have seen their income rise by 5%. Instead of cutting taxes for everybody, “Bash the rich” Tory policies have seen a leveling down… 

mdi-timer 6 March 2020 @ 11:00 6 Mar 2020 @ 11:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Londoners Keener on HS2 than Northerners

According to YouGov, by 39% to 34% the public overall is opposed to HS2. Londoners, however, are keener on HS2 than Northerners. Perhaps Northerners are less keen on the £100 billion price tag for Londoners to get back home 15 minutes quicker

mdi-timer 22 January 2020 @ 10:10 22 Jan 2020 @ 10:10 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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