64% Think the BBC is Biased

64% of the public think the BBC is somewhat or greatly biased.

This includes 35% of Leavers, who think it is greatly biased. Conversely, 30% of Remainers think there is little to no bias on the BBC.

The BBC likes to boast that is the most trusted media organisation. Unfortunately people, perhaps wisely, don’t trust the media in general…

Student Vote Irrelevant

The Labour Party have been veering away from the line that No Deal needs to be taken off the table in order for them to back an election. Their moving goalposts started to incredulously claim that No Deal needed to be taken off the table from January, or even from the end of Boris’ deal’s implementation period. Both dates well after the election would have taken place…

The new excuse reason Labour are citing as to why they would really love an election but just can’t back one whenever it is offered is that students will be out of term time. Well, some students. Who would have thought a party that just abolished its student wing would be so concerned about students voting…

Last year there were 1,885,000 UK students studying in higher education, of these some 1,442,000 were studying full-time. Labour’s current vote share is the lowest Youthsight have recorded since April 2015. Labour’s popularity has been in continual decline since peaking in February 2018 when they enjoyed more than a 70% share of the student vote.

Polling guru Chris Hanretty posits that assuming (for sake of argument) that turnout is 10% lower amongst students “out of term” compared to in term – which he says “would be a big effect: three times bigger than any get-out-the-vote effects we know of, that would mean that we would see between 144,200 and 188,500 fewer votes in an election where all universities are out-of-term.”

Hanretty calculates:

This means that an out-of-term election would cost the Labour Party between 54,796 and 71,630 votes (i.e., the figures from before, multiplied by 38%). By the same logic, an out-of-term election would cost the Conservative party between 17,304 and 22,620 votes. This means that an out of term election would decrease the Labour margin over the Conservatives by between 37,492 and 49,010 votes, or between 0.12% and 0.15% of the 2017 vote.

Hanretty’s figures show the partisan impact of changes in turnout due to an election being called when *all* students are out of term is minimal. This is in any case irrelevant because most universities are still in term in the week covering December 9 – 13…

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Speaker Spec-Data

This data from our friends at the Spectator says it all. Being Speaker was always about Bercow grabbing attention on his feet. Bercow will go down in history as wrecking the office of Speaker, unless a traditionalist is elected his successor it is now irredeemably partisan and will likely be so in the future. Imagine Chris Bryant in the Chair…

UPDATE: Two corrections, it is not the Speccie’s data, it is Robert Colvile’s analysis. The CPS wonk also says this does not compare like-with-like because it is over this data is actually speeches across entire parliamentary career, not just while Speaker. Our first mistake was because, unlike us, the Speccie did not credit the source and our second was taking their headline at face value.

Robert Colvile says that comparing Bercow and Michael Martin’s last three years as Speakers is better. Bercow is still 3 times as gobby as his predecessor…

Labour MPs with Most Leave Voters

Guido has compiled a handy list of the over 100 MPs elected for the Labour Party in 2017 from Leave-voting constituencies. They all voted for a referendum to take place, then voted to activate Article 50, and then stood on a manifesto promising to deliver what their constituents voted for. Now many look set to block the implementation of the result of the referendum they endorsed. Find out who the biggest hypocrites are on Guido’s handy list

See the full list here.

Two-Thirds of Labour Members Ashamed of Britain

Ian Austin’s Mainstream commissioned polling from YouGov of Labour Party members and found a party that has moved on a long way from being Blair’s “political wing of the British people”. Corbyn’s Marxist Labour Party is very different and so are the members. Of course we knew they would nationalise and tax everything that moves and seek to muzzle the opposition press – there are however a whole raft of sentiments that are shocking.

YouGov’s poll of over 1,100 members shows how out of touch with Labour voters the middle-class lefties really are:

  • 79% want to control who runs newspapers
  • 69% think it would be legitimate for unions to stage a general strike to bring down a Tory government;
  • TWO THIRDS believe the party doesn’t have a problem with anti-Semitism, OVER HALF believe the crisis is the fault of the media or Corbyn’s opponents;
  • Members would rather do a post-Brexit trade deal with Russia than Israel!

Astounding difference with popular opinion shows how out of touch with the working classes Labour is nowadays:

  • TWO-THIRDS are ashamed of Britain’s history;
  • MORE blame the British Government and Army for the Troubles in Northern Ireland than say it was the fault of the IRA;
  • MORE THAN HALF would feel bored, embarrassed or angry about singing the National Anthem – only 10% would be happy to sing “God Save the Queen”
  • SIX in ten want to abolish the royals for a republic;

Expect the Brexit Party to use the findings to appeal to patriotic former Labour voters who despise terrorists, respect the Queen and love their country…

Download full polling data here.

Brexit Ambiguity Killing Labour

Top lines from the latest Opinium poll:

  • Conservative Party now has a 15-point lead over Labour (37% vs 22%)
  • Disapproval of the opposition leaders and the House of Commons on Brexit continues to rise week-on-week
  • Now Remainers are just as likely to vote Lib Dems they are Labour (33% for each)

Opinium’s latest poll reveals that Boris continues to consolidate their first-place position in the Tories have hit a 15-point lead over Labour. The Tories hold steady on 37%, Labour has lost three points and is down to 22%. This would give the Tories a triple-figure majority…

EuroStat Thinks UK Has Already Brexited

EuroStat, the EU’s offical beancounting operation, has produced some updated handy data and infographics. From the chart above Guido learns that Luxembourg, the biggest per capita recipient of EU funds, is five times as rich as Bulgaria. Eurstat doesn’t record UK GDP per capita. In fact the UK has disappeared from all the data tables. Looks like they’ve decided the UK has already Brexited…

Is Rudd Resignation Really a Big Loss?

Amber Rudd was the least satisfactory member of the Cabinet in the eyes of Conservatives, according to the latest ConservativeHome polling. Pundits claiming Amber resigning will be a “huge loss for the Conservative Party” don’t understand the party or the reboot that is underway to align the party more closely with Brexit voters. Take their forecasts with a pinch of salt…

Thanks to Our Readers for A Record Month

Next month will be the fifteenth anniversary of Guido’s digital incarnation. We have seen rivals come and go. One thing we have never forgotten is that you the readers make us what we are. You provide us with tips, you encourage and admonish us. We always remember that it is our job to inform and entertain you.

The number of hits from visitors has increased from 20-a-day in 2004 to some 200,000-a-day last month. Our coverage of the Tory leadership battle generated a record 6,218,561 reader hits in July. A new all-time traffic record for the website…

Public Supports Proroguing Parliament

A majority (54%) of the public agree that Boris Johnson needs to deliver Brexit by any means, even if that meant suspending Parliament, according to the latest ComRes poll for The Telegraph. Including ‘don’t knows’ there is still a clear 44% in favour to 37% against, this is backed up by another question that finds 40% of people who think Boris is more in tune with the public than Parliament. Only 25% agree that Parliament is more in tune with the public than Boris…

Naturally Remoaners are hitting the roof over the fact ‘don’t knows’ have been excluded from the headline, and that the poll used the word “Boris”. Funnily enough Guido can’t remember them making such a fuss at the endless series of highly loaded “Final Say” polling questions pumped out by the People’s Vote campaign…

Labour Polling Slightly Ahead on Rolling Average Basis

According to the Britain Elects website the rolling average of recent polls has Labour ahead on on 24.4% and the Tories on 22.6%. Can Boris give the Tories a bounce next week?

Cadwalladr Facing £1,500 Fine for Late Filing

Hyggelig Limited is 100% owned and controlled by Carole Cadwalladr. After six months the fine for late filing of company accounts goes up to £1,500. If we were to follow her style of journalism we would now be demanding a police investigation, reporting her to some regulatory body* or something. Screaming down the phone at her for not answering questions. Maybe she should take a break from her conspiracies and just file her accounts…

*Who can forget the time she reported Michael Gove to the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner because he allegedly leaked her questions to Guido.

General Public Now Rates Hunt & Boris Equally

Jeremy Hunt will be pleased with this YouGov poll which suggests the public is warming to him. In a post-Brexit election both leadership hopefuls will score 33% – which is news – last month Boris scored 34% to Hunt’s 30% – this tie is of course statistically within the margin of error. In reality without Brexit happening British political norms will be shattered and so will the chances of a Tory majority. The problem for Hunt is that the numbers for Tories are little moved and he is well behind Boris with the people who have votes… party members.

Who’s Backing Who: Disruptive Rory Makes Some Gains

With 7 out of 10 MPs having declared their preferences, Rory has managed post debate to nab 2 of Matt Hancock’s previous backers. Rory has, as Katy Balls points out, disrupted Hancock’s hopes, messed up Hunt’s strategy and given Boris hating MPs an alternative to Gove.[…] Read the rest


Tax Thresholds Have Not Kept Up With Middle Class Earnings

Boris Johnson is proposing raising the threshold for paying higher rate income tax to £80,000. It is currently at £50,000. This means that income tax on earnings between £50,000 and £80,000 will fall from 40% to 20%. Because the national insurance thresholds would rise too, the total income tax and employee national insurance on earned income will fall from 42% to 32%.[…] Read the rest


Who’s Backing Who Sunday Afternoon Update

The Saj got the Ruth endorsement which whilst nice to have doesn’t matter that much as she is not an MP. Boris added James Brokenshire from the Cabinet to the ERG’s Steve Baker and Priti Patel. James Clevery fell in behind the front leader as well.[…] Read the rest


Who’s Backing Who

Different graphical format this afternoon. Of the declared MPs just over a quarter have come out for Boris, Gove has hoovered up nearly a fifth, with Hunt and Raab lining up behind him. The Saj is in single figures percentage-wise. Hancock is an also ran on 6%.[…] Read the rest


Scotland Ready for Raab and Will Back Boris

Remainer Ruth Davidson had been briefing until recently that she would lead a bloc of Scottish MPs to block Boris being selected on the grounds that he will go down very badly in Scotland. However it turns out that when you drill down into the regional data tables of the YouGov poll of all voters for the Tories under different leaders, that actually Brexiteers have more support in Scotland than Remainers.[…] Read the rest


Hunt Makes Gains, Challenging Gove for Second Place

After he rolled out a raft of supporters yesterday, the battle to become the Stop Boris candidate hotted up this morning with Jeremy Hunt announcing two more backers, putting him within just one MP’s backing of Michael Gove. MPs will be making their minds up as to who is more likely to be able to get past the overwhelmingly Leave-backing membership…

Generously there is now a top-tier of six candidates by MP backing; Boris, Gove, Hunt, Raab, Javid, and Hancock.[…] Read the rest


Boris Stretches Lead to Double Figures

As the working day draws to a close Boris has on his digital launch day stretched his declared lead on Guido’s spreadsheet to 10 MPs, boasting 36 to Gove’s 26. There will be pressure on other candidates to show a boost in support over the coming days to become or remain a serious contender.[…] Read the rest


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