Two-Thirds of Labour Members Ashamed of Britain

Ian Austin’s Mainstream commissioned polling from YouGov of Labour Party members and found a party that has moved on a long way from being Blair’s “political wing of the British people”. Corbyn’s Marxist Labour Party is very different and so are the members. Of course we knew they would nationalise and tax everything that moves and seek to muzzle the opposition press – there are however a whole raft of sentiments that are shocking.

YouGov’s poll of over 1,100 members shows how out of touch with Labour voters the middle-class lefties really are:

  • 79% want to control who runs newspapers
  • 69% think it would be legitimate for unions to stage a general strike to bring down a Tory government;
  • TWO THIRDS believe the party doesn’t have a problem with anti-Semitism, OVER HALF believe the crisis is the fault of the media or Corbyn’s opponents;
  • Members would rather do a post-Brexit trade deal with Russia than Israel!

Astounding difference with popular opinion shows how out of touch with the working classes Labour is nowadays:

  • TWO-THIRDS are ashamed of Britain’s history;
  • MORE blame the British Government and Army for the Troubles in Northern Ireland than say it was the fault of the IRA;
  • MORE THAN HALF would feel bored, embarrassed or angry about singing the National Anthem – only 10% would be happy to sing “God Save the Queen”
  • SIX in ten want to abolish the royals for a republic;

Expect the Brexit Party to use the findings to appeal to patriotic former Labour voters who despise terrorists, respect the Queen and love their country…

Download full polling data here.

Brexit Ambiguity Killing Labour

Top lines from the latest Opinium poll:

  • Conservative Party now has a 15-point lead over Labour (37% vs 22%)
  • Disapproval of the opposition leaders and the House of Commons on Brexit continues to rise week-on-week
  • Now Remainers are just as likely to vote Lib Dems they are Labour (33% for each)

Opinium’s latest poll reveals that Boris continues to consolidate their first-place position in the Tories have hit a 15-point lead over Labour. The Tories hold steady on 37%, Labour has lost three points and is down to 22%. This would give the Tories a triple-figure majority…

EuroStat Thinks UK Has Already Brexited

EuroStat, the EU’s offical beancounting operation, has produced some updated handy data and infographics. From the chart above Guido learns that Luxembourg, the biggest per capita recipient of EU funds, is five times as rich as Bulgaria. Eurstat doesn’t record UK GDP per capita. In fact the UK has disappeared from all the data tables. Looks like they’ve decided the UK has already Brexited…

Is Rudd Resignation Really a Big Loss?

Amber Rudd was the least satisfactory member of the Cabinet in the eyes of Conservatives, according to the latest ConservativeHome polling. Pundits claiming Amber resigning will be a “huge loss for the Conservative Party” don’t understand the party or the reboot that is underway to align the party more closely with Brexit voters. Take their forecasts with a pinch of salt…

Thanks to Our Readers for A Record Month

Next month will be the fifteenth anniversary of Guido’s digital incarnation. We have seen rivals come and go. One thing we have never forgotten is that you the readers make us what we are. You provide us with tips, you encourage and admonish us. We always remember that it is our job to inform and entertain you.

The number of hits from visitors has increased from 20-a-day in 2004 to some 200,000-a-day last month. Our coverage of the Tory leadership battle generated a record 6,218,561 reader hits in July. A new all-time traffic record for the website…

Public Supports Proroguing Parliament

A majority (54%) of the public agree that Boris Johnson needs to deliver Brexit by any means, even if that meant suspending Parliament, according to the latest ComRes poll for The Telegraph. Including ‘don’t knows’ there is still a clear 44% in favour to 37% against, this is backed up by another question that finds 40% of people who think Boris is more in tune with the public than Parliament. Only 25% agree that Parliament is more in tune with the public than Boris…

Naturally Remoaners are hitting the roof over the fact ‘don’t knows’ have been excluded from the headline, and that the poll used the word “Boris”. Funnily enough Guido can’t remember them making such a fuss at the endless series of highly loaded “Final Say” polling questions pumped out by the People’s Vote campaign…

Labour Polling Slightly Ahead on Rolling Average Basis

According to the Britain Elects website the rolling average of recent polls has Labour ahead on on 24.4% and the Tories on 22.6%. Can Boris give the Tories a bounce next week?

Cadwalladr Facing £1,500 Fine for Late Filing

Hyggelig Limited is 100% owned and controlled by Carole Cadwalladr. After six months the fine for late filing of company accounts goes up to £1,500. If we were to follow her style of journalism we would now be demanding a police investigation, reporting her to some regulatory body* or something. Screaming down the phone at her for not answering questions. Maybe she should take a break from her conspiracies and just file her accounts…

*Who can forget the time she reported Michael Gove to the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner because he allegedly leaked her questions to Guido.

General Public Now Rates Hunt & Boris Equally

Jeremy Hunt will be pleased with this YouGov poll which suggests the public is warming to him. In a post-Brexit election both leadership hopefuls will score 33% – which is news – last month Boris scored 34% to Hunt’s 30% – this tie is of course statistically within the margin of error. In reality without Brexit happening British political norms will be shattered and so will the chances of a Tory majority. The problem for Hunt is that the numbers for Tories are little moved and he is well behind Boris with the people who have votes… party members.

Who’s Backing Who: Disruptive Rory Makes Some Gains

With 7 out of 10 MPs having declared their preferences, Rory has managed post debate to nab 2 of Matt Hancock’s previous backers. Rory has, as Katy Balls points out, disrupted Hancock’s hopes, messed up Hunt’s strategy and given Boris hating MPs an alternative to Gove. Despite Rory having the fewest MP backers the betting markets currently make Rory second favourite

UPDATE: Matt Hancock is backing Boris.

View the full list here: order-order.com/backers

Get in touch with any updates…

Tax Thresholds Have Not Kept Up With Middle Class Earnings

Boris Johnson is proposing raising the threshold for paying higher rate income tax to £80,000. It is currently at £50,000. This means that income tax on earnings between £50,000 and £80,000 will fall from 40% to 20%. Because the national insurance thresholds would rise too, the total income tax and employee national insurance on earned income will fall from 42% to 32%. This represents a much needed tax cut for millions of middle class taxpayers.

In 2018-19, the higher rate threshold was £46,350. This was increased to £50,000 for 2019-20. According to research from the Taxpayers’ Alliance if governments since Blair in 1997 had increased the threshold in line with earnings, it would have been £58,895 by next year. If governments had increased the threshold in line with earnings since Margaret Thatcher’s last budget in 1988-89, it would have been £73,268 by next year. The higher rate was never designed to be paid by millions of what Corbyn’s 2017 manifesto called “ordinary households”…

Fiscal drag is real and has dragged millions of middle class families into a tax bracket that was only ever intended to be paid by the rich. For Conservative candidates to oppose a much needed reset of the thresholds to keep up with inflation and earnings increases is incomprehensible. These are the middle class voters that have to be won back from the Labour and Brexit parties…

Who’s Backing Who Sunday Afternoon Update

The Saj got the Ruth endorsement which whilst nice to have doesn’t matter that much as she is not an MP. Boris added James Brokenshire from the Cabinet to the ERG’s Steve Baker and Priti Patel. James Clevery fell in behind the front leader as well. The betting markets tell the tale below, Hunt is now the second favourite after Boris. Gove’s odds are lengthening. Leadsom is an inexplicable 9/1, Rory is 30/1, Saj is 40/1, Raab is 60/1 and Hancock is 300/1. Talk is now about who will fall in behind whom…

View the full list here: order-order.com/backers

Get in touch with any updates…

Who’s Backing Who


Different graphical format this afternoon. Of the declared MPs just over a quarter have come out for Boris, Gove has hoovered up nearly a fifth, with Hunt and Raab lining up behind him. The Saj is in single figures percentage-wise. Hancock is an also ran on 6%. Despite appearing to be in the red zone under the new rules without enough backers to qualify, the teams around Harper, McVey, Stewart, Leadsom and Gyimah all insist they have the requisite 8 MPs backing them in order to qualify. Not sure why now that the PM has resigned why they not come forward and made their names public… they will of course have only themselves to blame for their humiliation if it turns out on Monday evening they were not telling the truth…

Scotland Ready for Raab and Will Back Boris

Remainer Ruth Davidson had been briefing until recently that she would lead a bloc of Scottish MPs to block Boris being selected on the grounds that he will go down very badly in Scotland. However it turns out that when you drill down into the regional data tables of the YouGov poll of all voters for the Tories under different leaders, that actually Brexiteers have more support in Scotland than Remainers. 21% of Scots are ready for Raab and 20% would back Boris. Aberdeen’s own Michael Gove would score only 19% – the same as Theresa May. Remainers Jeremy Hunt (18%) and Sajid Javid (16%) actually poll worse than Theresa May…

Maybe Ruth – who was one of the leaders of the Remain campaign – should listen to her voters rather than her heart on who would be the best Tory party leader. Tory voters in Scotland are pro-Brexit, electing a remainer will actually drive Scottish Tories to vote for the Brexit Party…

Hunt Makes Gains, Challenging Gove for Second Place

After he rolled out a raft of supporters yesterday, the battle to become the Stop Boris candidate hotted up this morning with Jeremy Hunt announcing two more backers, putting him within just one MP’s backing of Michael Gove. MPs will be making their minds up as to who is more likely to be able to get past the overwhelmingly Leave-backing membership…

Generously there is now a top-tier of six candidates by MP backing; Boris, Gove, Hunt, Raab, Javid, and Hancock. The others are all in single figures and saving a big recruitment drive could be wiped out as soon as nominations close if the 1922 Committee change the rules in their meeting today. They will discuss either eliminating all candidates with single figure support after the first round of voting, or raising the nomination barrier from two MPs to twelve…

View the full list here: order-order.com/backers

Get in touch with any updates…

Boris Stretches Lead to Double Figures

As the working day draws to a close Boris has on his digital launch day stretched his declared lead on Guido’s spreadsheet to 10 MPs, boasting 36 to Gove’s 26. There will be pressure on other candidates to show a boost in support over the coming days to become or remain a serious contender. Nominations go in in a week and today a fitting 52% of the Parliamentary Party have now declared…

View the full list here: order-order.com/backers

Get in touch with any updates…

Who’s Backing Who: Boris Now Leads MPs’ Declarations

With 50% of Tory MPs now publicly declared Boris has taken the lead. Of the 4 pack leaders Raab and Gove have previously led, Boris is now ahead for the first time in the public declarations.

James Brokenshire has announced he is not running, telling an audience at Policy Exchange

“We simply do not have the luxury of weeks of navel gazing or days and days of whittling candidates down to the final two and talking to ourselves. At a time when the country is looking to us for leadership we need to show this as a Party. So I say gently to some of my colleagues who have put themselves forward for what has been described as the Grand National of Political Contests. Please think carefully.

If you already know it’s going to be a bit of a struggle to get over the first fence let alone Becher’s Brook ahead, then maybe you should pull up. There is no embarrassment in that. It doesn’t reflect on your talent or ability to influence the direction of our Party now and in the future. It’s just the overriding need to get our new leader in place as quickly as possible.”

Pressure is growing on the also rans in the field of thirteen to drop out in favour of one or other of the pack leaders, before the official contest starts…

View the full list here: order-order.com/backers

Get in touch with any updates…

Who’s Backing Who: Sam Joins Race, Kit Advances

No change to the order at the front of the pack since lunchtime yesterday. The Saj added his old running mate Stephen Crabb and more surprisingly the full-throttle Brexiteer Lucy Allan. In the middle of the pack Kit Malthouse has leapfrogged ahead of Esther McVey, who now has Rory nipping at her high heels. The thirteenth entrant, Sam Gyimah, has yet to win a single backer…

View the full list here: order-order.com/backers

Get in touch with any updates…

Who’s Backing Who: Ministers Start to Declare

As expected there were a few new declarations overnight in the Sunday papers. Liz Truss came out for Boris and Team Hunt encouraged three backers to go public. Nicky Morgan is another remainiac to come out for Gove. In the leading pack this moved Hunt ahead of Raab.

Guido suspects that Team Raab put out as many names as they could early on to give their candidate a good start and extra credibility from being in the lead. Hunt and Boris on the other hand are holding back and releasing only enough names to keep them in the leading pack. Showing momentum is the aim of the game, something the Saj and Hancock it seems are finding difficult…

At the back of the pack Rory Stewart added Ken Clarke to his list of supporters which puts him on level pegging with James Cleverly. So far 140 MPs have made their preferences known, some 47% of the MPs not running. Another week until nominations officially open…

UPDATE: Gauke Announces Support for Rory Stewart

UPDATE II: Sam Gyimah Enters Tory Leadership Race as Second Referendum Candidate 

View the full list here: order-order.com/backers

Get in touch with any updates…

Bad Al’s Magical Numerical Thinking

Alastair Campbell is going for a repeat of his 2010 performance when he toured the studios arguing, most famously with Adam Boulton, that Gordon Brown should stay in Downing Street as Prime Minister because the Tories had not really won.[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

Peter Mandelson tells Emma Barnett…

“I think that Jeremy Corbyn himself should search his conscience and ask himself whether he’s the best person to lead the Labour Party into the general election with the best chance of success for the party.”

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