Quantitative Analysis by Leftie Lecturers is Laughable

The Pink ‘Un’s John Burn-Murdoch’s statistical number crunching during the pandemic was compulsive and compelling reading. Today he has shifted from analysing Covid figures to quantifying political policies. He has concluded that the Conservative Party has become unmoored from the British people” and their own voters ideologically. His article goes on to claim that “the government may have adopted the most extreme economic position of any major party in the developed world”. He further claims “the Tories are the most economically right-wing major party in the developed world”!

The government has announced an energy price cap, which it says will cost £60 billion for the first six months and the industry reportedly expects the total bill to be between £130 billion and £150 billion. That is an intervention in the markets on a scale that former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell once dreamt of, and for which he was condemned as Marxist. Guido is at a loss to understand how that is right-wing or free market. It is the exact opposite. How can a party doing that be the most economically right-wing party in the developed world?

It turns out that FT asked a bunch of academics their opinion. Political “scientists” in universities are not famously politically representative, they’re far to the left of the public even if they are supposedly from “across the political spectrum”. The leftie-lecturer stereotype is well founded. This seems more like a qualitative academic focus group.

The claims from the FT’s comparative analysis of data from the British Election Study are even more bizarre. The usual four-quartered political compass (left/right on economics, up/down social libertarian/authoritarian) chart is supposedly applied to the British electorate. According to the FT there are no right-of-centre, social libertarians in Britain. Not one, with that whole quarter of the chart empty. This will be news to those of us who support keeping the government out of the economy and our bedrooms. The many millions of people who vote Conservative for lower taxes and also want to legalise soft drugs don’t seem to exist either, as far as the FT is concerned…

UPDATE:  Guido asked John Burn-Murdoch on Twitter “Do you really believe there are no voters in the bottom right quadrant? My friends feel unseen.” He replied “Not none, but exceptionally few. Less than 4% of people who voted in 2019 are in that quadrant. The chart simplifies the distributions in order to make it readable, but 4% is barely distinguishable from zero.” 4% is very distinguishable from zero. 4% of the electorate would be over a million voters.

mdi-timer 30 September 2022 @ 12:17 30 Sep 2022 @ 12:17 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
What Should Starmer Do Next?

The Times is reporting that Starmer is taking soundings and considering announcing that he would resign if he is found to have broken lockdown rules:

“He is being urged by close colleagues to wrest back the political initiative by stating that he believes receiving a fine for breaking coronavirus restrictions is a resigning offence for party leaders. … Starmer is understood to have accepted that he needs a fresh political position to reflect the new reality of the Durham investigation, which is expected to take six to eight weeks. This morning he is taking soundings from supportive members of the shadow cabinet, senior staff members and allies about what that position should be. Announcing that he would resign if fined is one option under consideration.”

Is he too chicken? What would co-conspirators advise him to do?


Poll closes at 3pm…

mdi-timer 9 May 2022 @ 12:32 9 May 2022 @ 12:32 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Piers Morgan Unwatched Loses Viewers Every Day of First Week

Piers Morgan has wrapped up his first week at TalkTV, and on cue, Guido is here to report the BARB viewing figures. There’s good news and bad news. The good news for Piers is he has managed to slow the trend of losing over 100,000 viewers with every consecutive show. The bad news is last night’s broadcast was still the lowest-rated yet, pulling in 117,900 viewers in his primetime slot – compared to 316,800 on Monday… 

Piers keeps boasting how well the show is doing on social media, which is hard for us to measure without access to his logins. We can however see that the show’s Twitter account has, at the time of going to pixel, just 42,056 followers and is getting signal digit retweets. Early days yet… 

Piers will be pleased that despite the decline he is still leading against rivals in his time-slot. Tom Newton Dunn’s The News Desk now has a dedicated fan club of 14,300 viewers. Which means 39,900 people have, since Monday, decided to watch something else instead. Celebrations are in order for the team over at The Talk with Sharon Osbourne, though: viewership leapt up to 37,900 last night, after pulling in just 9,700 on Wednesday. The show beat Beth Rigby Interviews with a mere 28,600 viewers, though it trailed behind GB News’ Dan Wootton on 53,200. All well and good – except Sharon wasn’t even on the show last night… will she even return?

 

mdi-timer 29 April 2022 @ 14:49 29 Apr 2022 @ 14:49 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Starmer’s Leadership is Threatening Keirs Everywhere

The ONS released their annual survey of baby names this morning, and Guido can report that while the number of Borises being born is holding steady, the number of Keirs has plummeted. 15 Keirs were born in 2019, yet by 2020, this number plummeted by 40% to just 9. As a result, Sir Keir’s name has fallen from 1587th most popular to 2228thThe PM will be happy that the number of baby Borises remains constant at 745th, with 43 born in 2020…

Carrie may also join in despair with Sir Keir. Despite 18 Carries born in 2018, and 14 in 2019, 2020 saw just seven – a ranking fall from 1940th most popular to 3117thLabour’s deputy leader is proving less of a turn-off for parents than her leader, with 54 Angelas born in 2020 – a very popular baby name at 683th

mdi-timer 18 October 2021 @ 13:04 18 Oct 2021 @ 13:04 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Boris is “PM Most Active in Parliament” of the Modern Era

According to a press release sent to Guido, based on an analysis of Hansard, Boris Johnson is the most active PM in the Commons of the modern era. Despite his reputation for disliking parliament, Boris has been making an average of 12.8 contributions in parliament per week. James Callaghan and Theresa May come second and third, with an average of 11.3 and 6 contributions per week respectively. Tony Blair only made one contribution per week on average, making him the Prime Minister least present in parliament in the modern era.

Tyler Woodward, CEO of the cannabis products distributor Eden’s Gate, which commissioned the research, says:

“It comes as no surprise to me that Boris Johnson has been named hardest working PM in terms of parliamentary contributions. After all, he has been in office throughout Brexit and a worldwide health crisis! I’d suggest he makes sure to make time for himself and ensure he’s sleeping and eating well to avoid burnout.”

Guido has many so far unanswered questions about the methodology of this analysis. Have they been smoking the product?

Methodology: Cannabinoid oils distributor Eden’s Gate used Hansard to find the number of spoken parliamentary contributions each prime minister made whilst in office. They then divided this by how many weeks each prime minister spent in office to get the average number of contributions each PM made per week. They then ranked these in order to find the most hard working prime ministers of the modern age. Data collected and analysed 26/08/2021
mdi-timer 2 September 2021 @ 12:09 2 Sep 2021 @ 12:09 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Latest Poll Will Steady Tory Nerves

US pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Tories back to a 10 point lead — the same result as last week’s poll. CCHQ will take heart from the knowledge that the fieldwork was completed yesterday, after a weekend of Cummings headlines…

UPDATE: If it is “the economy stupid” that matters, the Tories will be encouraged by economic optimism climbing faster than Ipsos MORI have ever measured before:

mdi-timer 27 April 2021 @ 10:27 27 Apr 2021 @ 10:27 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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