Coalition of the Others Still Trails Tories

For all the talk of a “coalition of the others” (or “coalition of chaos” © T. May) it is still the case that adding the national vote share of Labour, the LibDems and the Greens gives 45%, 3% behind the Tories on 48% – according to last night’s YouGov survey giving the Tories a whopping 24% lead. Guido’s question is will Jeremy Corbyn do worse than Michael Foot in 1983?

Services PMI Strong

pmi-services-jump

The pound has jumped again on the back of strong numbers from the services sector. When the jobs data came in strong last month Remainers said that manufacturing was cratering and that would translate into job losses later. Then when the manufacturing PMI came in strong the Remainers said that it was actually services that were being hammered. This morning saw the biggest jump in the PMI services number on record…

So Remainers are running out of bad news. We have gone from the Brexit vote leading to a “global economic shock” requiring an emergency budget to “it is too soon to tell”, “Brexit hasn’t happened yet”. Yet when stocks went down (they are now higher) it was immediate evidence, when the pound went down it too was immediate evidence. These moves were all based on expectations conditioned by politicians and economists who have been proved wrong as the economic data comes in. Every new data point proves them demonstrably wrong.

And what about the 71% of City economists who predicted a recession this year? Not one has taken up Guido’s offer of a £1,000 bet…

“Corbyn” Surges By 50% as New Baby Name

corbyn blair edit

“Corbyn” has surged in popularity as a new baby name in the last year, ONS data has revealed. The Labour leader’s surname, which means “raven haired”, increased in popularity as a boy’s name by 50% since 2014. There were also three Korbyns and 19 Corbins. “Corbyn” was 36% more popular than “Blair” in 2015…

favourability-survation

Who cares if he is 65 points behind Theresa May in a Survation favourability poll? He’s more popular than Blair!

H/T Jon Stone

How British Empire Beats EU for Olympic Medals

EU 3

The former countries of the British Empire won 396 medals – 138 more medals than a post-Brexit EU. While the European Parliament invents an EU state to “win” the Olympics, the medal tally of a one-time actual supra-state leaves Brussels for dust. Former member countries of the British Empire accrued 76 more medals than the rest of the world (24%). In all, the Empire’s score of 137 gold medals trounces the EU’s, which after removing Great Britain sits at just 79.

Looking at other alliances NATO countries took a stunning 443 out of the 974 medals on offer (45%), while Anglosphere countries grabbed a whopping 288 – 30% of the world total. This is compared to Francophone states’ measly 87 (9%), even with Canada’s 22 (2%) generously included. Hoisting the colours appears to have been good luck; countries with Union Jacks in their flags took a massive 115 medals, of which 40 were gold!

“Egomaniac” Izzard Cost Moderates NEC Majority

ex-izzard

The Labour moderates, formerly known as Blairites, are crying into their mocha lattes this morning that Eddie Izzard not only lost out (as usual) on getting a place on the NEC, he also cost them up to three seats and any chance of a majority.

The two charts above show the clean sweep of the top six places by the the hard-left (reds). If Izzard’s votes were redistributed to the moderates (pinkos), which is mathematically possible if not probable, they would have won three more seats and regained control of the NEC. “It was Izzard wot lost it for the moderates. Had that ego-maniac not run, we’d have had 71,000 more votes up for grabs that could have gone to moderates. He’s basically given an NEC seat to the Corbynistas. When it comes to politics, Eddie is a very good comedian” laments a Blairite die-hard. By Guido’s calculations if just over half of Izzard’s votes had gone to moderates, Ellie Reeves, Bex Bailey and Johanna Baxter would be holding the line against the Corbynistas on the NEC…

The Owen Smith-supporting Labour First faction emailed supporters optimistically that

Contrary to some of the online and media reaction, this does not give full control of the NEC to Corbyn. There is a net change of just one seat as the PLP section saw a seat go from left to right. When the new NEC takes office after Annual Conference, the solid vote for the Hard Left will be 16 if they all turn up, with 17 others. Thus NEC meetings will continue to be finely balanced and hinge on the personal decisions of the more independent-minded members like Ann Black, and the stance taken by the GMB and Unison. We will win some votes and lose others just like we did in the pre-leadership election meeting. 

Though they go on to say pointedly

If we can avoid a split moderate vote in future contests (Eddie Izzard ran as an independent when we would have been happy to support him if he had asked us) that will help!

It woz Izzard wot lost it…

How Tough Was May on Immigration?

may immigration

Theresa May has so far spent most of her campaign talking tough on immigration, including a threat to EU migrants currently living in the UK. Her team know this is her weak spot – in the next two months we will hear a lot about how May failed to deliver on immigration while in office. The above graph is a snapshot of all fourth quarter immigration estimates during her time as Home Secretary. An estimated 3,443,000 migrants entered the UK, with 1.2 million of those coming directly from EU states. Since 2012, EU immigration has increased every single year, with 2015 proving the highest year since records began in 2006. May’s campaign thinks a few “Go Home” vans are enough to secure her credentials as the strongest candidate on immigration… 

Shock Study Shows Journalists Twice as Likely to Be Lefties

left-wing-journalists

The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism has a new in-depth study of British journalists out. No doubt most reports of the study will focus on the under-representation of minorities, the glass ceiling for women and ignore the finding that British journalists are more godless than most people. That’s because most journalists are lefties….

The survey asked journalists to self define their politics on a 1 to 10 scale. According to their own judgement about half of journalists take a left-of-centre political stance, with barely a quarter outing themselves as right-wing. Right-of-centre political beliefs seemingly increase with seniority:

This pattern differs somewhat between journalists of different ranks and levels of responsibility. Our survey shows that, while the proportion of journalists with a centrist political view stays fairly steady across the ranks, there is a clear increase in right-of-centre journalists in more senior roles, and a corresponding decrease in left-of-centre journalists, particularly above the rank of junior manager.

Clear thinking smarter people apparently do rise to the top in the media meritocracy. Frankly Guido is happy that most of his competitors are left-wing, it makes our output even more unique…

Junior Doctors: It’s All About the Money

In the words of Meja, it is all about the money:

Cg9AnwWWIAUq5px

The FT graphic explains the negotiating positions – the government is offering more money for a 7-day NHS, the junior doctors want more still. Struggling on their not undeserved triple average earnings, their strike is not about “saving the NHS”. Who are they kidding? They are diverting taxpayers’ money from the same cash-pot that funds treatments and life-saving drugs into their pockets. They are playing on the natural sympathies of the grateful beneficiaries of their treatments.

Through all this it is important to remember this is not about “stopping the cuts”, there are none, this is not about “the NHS in crisis”. It is all about the money…

How Carter Ruck’s Attempt to Gag Google Failed

elton

In his judgement Lord Justice Jackson effectively ruled that injunctions cannot remain in place once knowledge of the injucted information is widespread:

“The court should not make orders which are ineffective. It is inappropriate – some may used a stronger term – for the court to ban people from saying that which is common knowledge… Knowledge of the relevant matters is now so widespread that confidentiality has probably been lost”

Google search trends show that searches for “David Furnish” in the UK have increased to a trend score of 100 in the last few days, the maximum possible score relative to previous searches for his name:

furnish

Searches for “Daniel Laurence”, the man who claims he had an olive oil paddling pool threesome with Furnish, have also increased to a score of 100:

WWWW

This data shows just those who already knew to search those specific names. Several times as many people will have discovered the identities simply by searching “celebrity injunction”:

INJ

Carter Ruck’s attempts to threaten Google into taking down search results revealing the identities failed completely. As Lord Justice Jackson says, knowledge has become widespread…

EU Trade Deficit Hits Record High

DEFICIT GRAPH

Tumbling British exports and an increase in European imports means that the UK’s trade deficit with the EU hit an all time high of £23 billion between November and January.

The trade deficit – the value of exports minus the value of imports – is crucial for measuring British businesses overall performance overseas.

Meanwhile, British exports to the continent are at their lowest since 2009. Divided between the 28 EU member states you get an average gap of over £3 billion per each common market member. Merkel might not want a free trade agreement, but German businesses will… 

Buried away in the ONS’ official data is an increase in EU imports of £674 million in January, while British exports rose a paltry £12 million. This includes a massive £300 million import bung for the Netherlands, while flagging economies Italy and Spain were able to flog us £100 million worth of pasta and sangria each.

They need us more than we need them…

Tory MPs: 153 for In, 140 for Out, 37 Undeclared

mpsref

The pressure is on the 37 undeclared…

Full list here.

Momentum’s Dodgy Data Grab

momentum

The Corbyn cheer-leading organisation “Momentumclaims to be able to contact all the people who signed up to support Jeremy Corbyn during the leadership contest, but they might not have permission to do so. When people signed up as supporters of the Corbyn4Leader campaign, they were asked to give their email addresses and postcodes; the campaign said they were collecting this information to “enable us to carry out casework on behalf of constituents; issues and campaigns we are involved with locally; maintaining our own accounts and records; supporting and managing our employees and agents.

According to the Information Commissioner’s Office “individuals should generally be able to choose whether or not their personal data is disclosed to another organisation” and if an organisation does intend to disclose information to another organisation, “fairness requires that you tell the individuals concerned unless they are likely to expect such disclosures.”

If Momentum is a stand alone limited company and doesn’t share any formal links with other organisations as they claim, what right did the official Corbyn campaign have to pass over the sensitive personal data of its supporters to them?

Shocking Cabinet Gender Pay Gap Revealed

cabinet gender pay gap

Following the government announcement today that they will force companies to disclose their gender pay gap, it seems only right to look at how David Cameron performs on the same metric. After all he himself says the requirement will “cast sunlight on the discrepancies and create the pressure we need for change, driving women’s wages up”. Quite…

After carrying out an extensive gender pay audit, Guido can reveal that female members of the Cabinet are paid a shocking 8.4% less than their male counterparts. Men in the Cabinet are paid on average* £126,478 , while women on average* are paid just £116,693…

*Calculation based on the mean average wage by gender for all who attend cabinet.

What the Welfare Budget Looks Like Minus Pensions

Counting pensions as an old age ‘benefit’ has provided lefties with data-based ammunition against small state conservatives who want to slash the welfare bill. Looking at the graph below, targeting proportionally tiny housing benefits or tax credits looks futile – superficially at least – when 42% of the ‘welfare’ budget is spent on pensions:

You can see why lefties love using this statistic – it grossly skews the welfare bill to make it look like we hardly spend anything on the things their opponents want to cut.

So what does the welfare budget look like if we take pensions out of the equation?

This truer reflection of the welfare budget sees the other slices of the pie double in size.

30% of the non-pensions budget is spent on family benefits, income support and tax credits, some £45 billion.

Housing makes up closer to 20%, £26 billion.

A much clearer illustration of what we spend on welfare than lefties and the ONS would have us believe…

Twitter Brain: Mensch Analysed

TWITTER-BRAIN

Guido has heard it said many times that Louise Mensch needs analysis and today we have analysed her Twitter account. Currently she is tweeting pretty incessantly about Tim Hunt, the professor hounded out of public life for making a few humorous remarks about women in science. The twitterati’s feminazi wing took exception and the Nobel prize winning scientist was ruined. Louise has documented the case for the defence in detail on her own website

Anyone who follows Louise will know that she is tweeting about it a lot. By “a lot” Guido means continuously. Incessantly. Relentlessly. Non-stop. Around the clock. On average currently Louise is tweeting 280 times a day, about once every 5 minutes, 24 hours a day…

mensch247

In comparison Guido tweeted 33 times a day on average in June, well when we say “Guido” we mean one of the 4 Guido staff writers and of course about a third of those tweets are automated. Here is the analysis of @LouiseMensch for last month:

mensch-tweets

Let’s hope Professor Hunt is grateful for her campaign on his behalf. Louise – consider this an intervention – put the iPhone down…

Posh Pushier Politically

comres-turnout-by-class

Comres have a new voter turnout model for ‘Lazy Labour’. The key takeaway from this is that in mainly poor constituencies turnout is 20 percentage points lower than in mainly affluent constituencies. Not too posh to be politically pushy…

Newspaper Readers Party Preferences

newspaper-party-affiliation

This British Election Study survey shows Indy readers are a mixed bunch and as many back the coalition parties as Labour. So that endorsement will please and anger readers in equal measure. No surprises in the data. 

Data Shows Miliband Less Sexy Than Coalition Leaders

yougov-attractiveness

It is not so #SexyMiliband according to a YouGov survey bring further proof that we have passed peak #SexyMiliband. Nick Clegg is the housewife’s choice, Cameron is sloppy seconds. Ed comes a distant third just ahead of Nigel Farage.

MiliFandom is clearly a minority interest…

Reality Check: Nothing Changed

post-debate

As the spin-room packs up after the only TV debate the PM will take part in, what has really changed? The candidates were prepped for weeks, even Natalie Bennett remembered her talking points, each will have gotten something from the debate. Cameron got to look Prime Ministerial, Miliband looked a lot better than the he does when eating a bacon sandwich, Farage confirmed his Marmite status, fervently liked and disliked, Sturgeon really showed her mettle. Clegg was reasonable, Leanne Wood will have made them proud back in Wales. The spin-doctors will highlight where their candidate won on the issues, satisfied at least that their candidate didn’t screw up. 

On the numbers there was a great deal of variation between the pollsters on the key question of who won the debate? Leaving out the also rans of Clegg, Bennett and Wood the pollsters really differed – ICM said Miliband shaded it on 25% and Sturgeon came fourth after Cameron and Farage, YouGov had it in exactly the opposite order with Sturgeon first, followed by Farage, Cameron and then Miliband on only 15%. The double digit difference between first and fourth place and the exact reversing of the order does nothing for the collective credibility of pollsters.

In these circumstances is averaging the poll results really meaningful?  There was more clarity with the issue based polling which confirmed what we already know; Cameron is a clear winner on the economy, Miliband wins on the NHS and Farage wins on immigration. No news…

Did the TV debate enhance democracy? Last night two-thirds of TV viewers didn’t even care enough to watch the TV show that the political class has obsessed over for months. With only 7 million viewers it had a million fewer viewers than that other exemplar of participatory democracy, The Voice.

Post-Paxo Poll of Polls

As of this morning there have been 5 polls since Paxo interviewed the two leaders. Averaging them all out it appears there has been no ‘Miliband bounce’ post-Paxo as Labour have hoping, the two main parties are still neck and neck. Both the Tories and Labour are squeezing up towards that 35% mark, while UKIP are feeling it down on an average 12%.[…] Read the rest

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