Public say Corbyn a Bigger ‘Villain’ than Epstein

Corbyn’s astounding and unprecedented levels of unpopularity for a Labour leader have long been commented upon, but a new poll from Opinium helps contextualise just how poorly Corbyn is perceived by the public; being ranked by 29% as the ‘villain’ of 2019 – 1% higher than disgraced – now dead – paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. He’s always said he’s in a battle with billionaires…

Corbyn can find some solace in Donald Trump’s easy victory in the villainy poll, taking 39% of the vote. Is Corbyn getting used to losing by double-digit losses yet?…

Boris, on the other hand, received 19% in the reciprocal ‘hero of 2019’ poll, with David Attenborough winning on 35% to Greta Thunberg’s second place of 21%. Will the elderly ever stop stealing Greta’s dreams…

mdi-timer 2nd January 2020 @ 12:30 pm 2nd Jan 2020 @ 12:30 pm mdi-comment Comments
2019 Election: For the Many, Not the Brew

Number Cruncher Politics have, as their name would suggest, crunched the numbers, and discovered the Tories benefitted from much larger swings in constituencies with no or few Starbucks than those with lots of them. Labour’s campaign must have come to this realisation latte…

Labour’s Costa-ly manifesto saw them perform less poorly in the seven constituencies with over seven Starbucks (even though the Tories just about held on in some); Birmingham Ladywood, Chelsea & Fulham, Cities of London & Westminster, Holborn & St Pancras, Kensington, Manchester Central, Glasgow Central. Cities has 64 Starbucks branches alone. These facts will surely be grounds for reflection in Labour’s post-election review…

The newly-discovered analysis backs up the previously-found correlation between Remain-voting areas and Pret-a-Mangers

If any co-conspirators want to plot Greggs branches with Tory Gains, please email in the results…

mdi-timer 19th December 2019 @ 2:04 pm 19th Dec 2019 @ 2:04 pm mdi-comment Comments
Post-Election Polling Roundup Not Good for Labour

A torrent of post-election polling is now filtering through from the major pollsters and there is a lot to digest.

Firstly on the question of how people actually voted, YouGov and the Times have drilled down into the big vote gains the Tories got, not least from:

The working class

With huge swing from DE voters, flipping a labour lead of 8% in 2015 to a Tory lead of 13% on the 12th

Tory remainers and Labour Leavers

With Boris holding onto 65% of Remain Tory 2017 voters – despite what the likes of Hessletine and Hammond claimed; and taking 33% of Labour’s 2017 leave voters

Younger voters

Corbyn still won most of the youth vote, but the Times with YouGov have worked out the crossover age at which more people vote Tory than Labour was eight years younger than in 2017, having fallen from 47 years old to 39.

Post-election polling on leader favourability also sees Corbyn plummet by 11 points, down to net -50. Good news for Swinson therefore as she is no longer the least popular figure in British politics – thriving on a mere -44%. Meanwhile Boris has seen a small boost of 1% up to -11. Keep an eye out as Corbyn’s approval sinks to new depths while he stays in office until next March…

Hat-tip: The Times

mdi-timer 17th December 2019 @ 3:00 pm 17th Dec 2019 @ 3:00 pm mdi-comment Comments
More Distrust the Beeb than Trust It

Those who do not trust the BBC to tell the truth now outnumber those who do, according to new polling by YouGov. Those saying they trust BBC News journalists “a great deal” or “a fair amount” has fallen from 51% to 44%, whilst the proportion of Brits with “not much” or no trust at all in the BBC has risen from 41% to 48%. Excluding those without a view, those numbers rise to the golden 48:52 …

With the Tories now seriously reviewing the archaic licence fee, it looks as if something more radical than simply the proposed decriminalisation of non-payment could turn out to be more popular. Competition drives up quality…

mdi-timer 17th December 2019 @ 2:18 pm 17th Dec 2019 @ 2:18 pm mdi-comment Comments
Opinium Claim Polling Victory

Survation famously claimed victory in 2017 having predicted the election most accurately. It looks like this year’s crown is being snatched by Opinium. Savanta and ICM will have to reevaluate their methodology given their predictions of only 5-6 point Tory leads…

mdi-timer 13th December 2019 @ 12:29 pm 13th Dec 2019 @ 12:29 pm mdi-comment Comments
How do the Polls Compare to Last Time?

The final Tory poll leads of this election from each pollster came in last night, ranging from hung parliament territory (five points) to a landslide majority (thirteen points). Each pollster’s results are as follows…

  • Savanta ComRes 5pts
  • ICM 6pts
  • Panelbase 9pts
  • YouGov 9pts
  • BMG 9pts
  • Deltapoll 10pts
  • NPC 10pts
  • Survation 11pts
  • Mori 11pts
  • Opinium 12pts
  • Kantar 12pts
  • Qriously 13pts

That makes for an average lead of 9.76%.

By comparison, this was the spread of polls by the end of the 2017 campaign:

  • Qriously -2pts
  • Survation 1pts
  • Surveymonkey 4pts
  • Kantar 5pts
  • Opinium 7pts
  • YouGov 7pts
  • Panelbase 8pts
  • Mori 8pts
  • ComRes 10pts
  • ICM 12pts
  • BMG 13pts

Meaning that on the eve of election last time around, the average Tory lead was 6.64%.

In reality, the results came in with a Tory lead of just 2.4%, 64% lower than the average. If the percentage difference is the same between polls and reality this time, it will mean an eventual Tory lead of 3.5%. Hung Parliament territory…

Hat-Tip: Sam Freedman
mdi-timer 12th December 2019 @ 2:00 pm 12th Dec 2019 @ 2:00 pm mdi-comment Comments
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