New figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show the job market is weakening:
- Unemployment reached 4.6%. Highest level since July 2021…
- May’s drop in payrolled employees was 109,000. Well beyond estimates…
- Pay growth minuses bonuses rose at slowest rate in seven months.
- April’s drop revised to almost double from 33,000 to 55,000. April saw Reeves’ tax hikes come in…
- Jobs lost since budget are now at 276,000.
- Public sector wages now rising faster than private sector wages.
Figures outpaced economists’ expectations. Despite a cooling market it is expected that the Bank of England will hold rates at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week…
Miliband says this morning “whenever people lose their jobs that is regrettable… we’re making big investments.” Also hiking taxes on employment by £26 billion…
The ONS says in this release that its labour market statistic estimates are “more uncertain than usual” – complementary PAYE figures from HMRC actually have the loss of jobs in May at a whopping 109,000. The power to tax is the power to destroy…
New figures from the Office for National Statistics show inflation is up. By more than expected to 3.5%…
Higher household energy bills drove most of the rise – past the 3.3% expected by analysts and March’s 2.6% figure. Central bankers 0n Threadneedle Street are watching…
The ONS notes “on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 1.2% in April 2025, compared with a rise of 0.3% in April 2024.” Reeves’ tax rises also blamed for putting pressure on prices…
UPDATE: Reeves’ statement – “I am disappointed with these figures because I know cost of living pressures are still weighing down on working people. We are long way from the double-digit inflation we saw under the previous administration but I’m determined we go further & faster to put more money in people’s pockets. That’s why we have increased the minimum wage for millions of working people, frozen fuel duty to protect commuters and struck 3 trade deals in the past 2 weeks that will go toward cutting bills.“
Since last week’s slew of trade announcements a City AM/Freshwater Strategy Poll interviewed 1,250 UK adults over the weekend. Guido has had sight of the full unpublished polling data. Starmer not coming off too well…
Hilariously after signing a vague general trade agreement with the United States 22% of Brits’ view of the PM has worsened compared to only 15% whose view has improved – nothing has changed for the rest. No instant gratification here…
On trade 52% back the deal with India vs 25% against. Interestingly the majority of Brits (53%) are opposed to the NICs carve out for seconded Indian workers compared to only 32% in support. No surprise seeing as they have had theirs hiked by Labour…
Reform is now polling as the most trusted party to grow the economy with their four most popular policies all being tax cuts:
- Increase the income tax personal allowance to £20,000 and raise the higher-rate threshold from £50,271 to £70,000.
- Abolish stamp duty on properties valued below £750,000 introduce a 2% rate for properties between £750,000 and £1.5 million, and a 4% rate for properties above £1.5 million
- Eliminate inheritance tax on estates valued below £2 million and apply a 20% rate on amounts above this threshold.
- Abolish business rates for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and raise the VAT threshold to support small businesses.
Support for those range from 43 to 50 while Reform’s other promises – like nationalisation of utilities – drop to 30 points and below. Read those lips…
Fresh YouGov polling for The Times will make happy reading for Farage ahead of local election polling day on Thursday. Reform are leading on 26%, three points ahead of Labour on 23%. Less good news for LOTO, as the Tories come in third at 20%. They’ve been at pains to stress that these locals will be “extremely difficult” for the party…
The LibDems are on 15% while the Greens are on 9%. It’s no change for Labour or the Tories compared to last week’s YouGov poll, though Reform have climbed by one percentage point. The locals are the party’s first real test after Reform has led polling in the last few months…
Yesterday the IMF cut the UK’s growth forecast by a substantial 0.5% before Reeves heads to D.C. today for a summit hosted by the institution. New borrowing figures from the Office for National Statistics show just what Brits are on the hook for…
Public sector borrowing excluding banks is £151.9 billion in the year to March – the OBR’s prediction of last month was £137.3 billion for the 2024/5 financial year. At the budget it only forecast £127.5 billion of borrowing…
March borrowing is £16.4 billion, £2.8 billion higher than last year and the third highest on record. The budget deficit is £12.6 billion higher than last year’s twelve month period and £13.9 billion higher than the OBR’s forecast. Net debt is at 95.8% which “remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s.” When growth was about 3%…
YouGov has just dropped its latest favourability ratings, polling over 2,000 Britons. Rachel Reeves has plunged to her lowest ever score, clocking in at a dire net -48%. Even Labour voters aren’t buying what she’s selling, with 43% viewing her negatively, compared to just 33% positively. Somehow Guido’s not surprised…
Keir Starmer has dropped four points since mid-March to a net -34% rating. Elsewhere, Nigel Farage sits at -38%, Angela Rayner at -29%, and Kemi Badenoch is on -38%, her worst rating yet in her six months as Tory leader. A separate YouGov poll shows just 24% of Britons believe Labour cares about ordinary people. Meanwhile a More in Common poll out today have Reform and Labour neck and neck at 24%, with the Tories coming in third on 23%. The electorate not feeling a lot of love for anyone this Easter…
Starmer said to Robert Peston this afternoon:
“I’m fed up with the fact that families across the country see their bills go up and down on energy businesses bills go up and down on energy because of the actions of Putin or Trump across the world.”
