Public Believe UK Should Leave EU With No Deal

A new ComRes poll has found that more people think the UK should leave the EU without a deal on 31 October if the EU doesn’t agree to Boris Johnson’s deal. 42% of Brits agree with the statement “If the EU doesn’t agree to Boris Johnson’s proposals for a Brexit deal, the UK should leave on 31 Oct without a deal” compared to 40% who disagree. Excluding ‘don’t knows’ that’s a margin of 51.2 to 48.8…

Additionally, more people would feel angry (40%) than relieved (37%) if the UK does not leave on 31 October. Even if the Surrender Act works, the EU needs to wake up to the fact that the British public won’t countenance extending for long…

Public Not Interested in Boris/Acuri Affair and Oppose Extinction Rebellion

A new poll by YouGov has revealed that less than a quarter of Brits think it is relevant for them to know if Boris and Jennifer Arcuri had a romantic relationship. 62% think it isn’t…

Majorities in every region, country, age group, gender, and social grade of the UK say it is not relevant, which makes Morgan’s constant focus on it this morning seem a waste of time. Interestingly, fewer women are likely to say it is relevant than men…

The same poll found that 53% of the public oppose Extinction Rebellion’s fortnight-long shut down of Westminster, compared to just 37% who support it. Things look even bleaker for the extremist group when the poll is broken down to strongly oppose vs strongly support; with just 12% strongly support the group, vs 33% who strongly oppose them. Looks like the true extinction might be their climate communist cabal…

Leave Voters Now Think Tory Party is a Pro-Brexit Party

New YouGov polling has revealed that more leave Leave voters now think that the Tory party is a pro-Brexit party in a direct contrast to the last time the question was asked. Back in April, Leave voters were found to be substantially more likely to think the Tories were actually anti-Brexit (40%) than pro-Brexit (23%). The more pro-Brexit the Tories are seen as, the higher their polling climbs…

Hearteningly for Tory strategists, the proportion of Brexit Party voters who see the Tories as anti-Brexit has collapsed from 65% to just 24%.

Corbyn Drops Even Lower as Least Popular Opposition Leader in History

New polling by Ipsos MORI today has revealed Jeremy Corbyn is solidifying his position as the least popular Leader of the Opposition in the history of British politics. No surprise he keeps voting down an election…

At the end of June, Corbyn dropped to the lowest ever LOTO rating with -58 approval, but today he has surpassed even that – dropping a clear four points behind Michael Foot’s personal best. He went on to lead Labour to its worst defeat since before the second world war, granting the Tories a 144 seat majority…

This is a pretty dire situation for Labour, as PoliticalBetting points out, he would have to stage a recovery far in excess of what happened in 2017 to have any hope of winning. Labour faces bigger challenges of a more charismatic Tory leader, a resurgent Lib Dems, and far fewer voters who categorise themselves as ‘undecided’. Corbyn’s poll rating before that election was just -25%, half as unpopular as today…

Leave Beat the SNP in Half of Their Westminster Seats

The SNP love going on about how more Remain votes than Leave votes came from Scotland in the United Kingdom’s EU referendum. They don’t like mentioning that more than a million Scots voted to leave, or the fact that if you disregard the Leave votes from Scotland and Northern Ireland, Remain would have won. Guido has compiled some data that might offer the Scot Nats a reason to think again about ignoring the sizeable contingent of Scottish Brexiteers…

In half of the SNPs 35 seats, the Leave percentage outweighed the SNP vote share in the 2017 election. The SNP MPs who have cause to be worried are:

  • Kirsty Blackman Aberdeen North 41.3 SNP 43.09 Leave
  • Neil Gray Airdrie and Shotts 37.6 SNP 39.84 Leave
  • Brendan O’Hara Argyll and Bute 36 SNP  39.43 Leave
  • Phillipa Whitford Central Ayrshire 37.2 SNP 41.62 Leave
  • Douglas Chapman Dunfermline and West Fife 35.5 SNP 39.39 Leave
  • John McNally Falkirk 38.9 SNP 43.2 Leave
  • David Linden Glasgow East 38.8 SNP 43.84 Leave
  • Chris Stephens Glasgow South West 40.7 SNP 40.86 Leave
  • Peter Grant Glenrothes 42.8 SNP 47.61 Leave
  • Drew Hendry Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey 39.9 SNP 40.13 Leave
  • Angela Crawley Lanark and Hamilton East 32.6 SNP 35.96 Leave
  • Martyn Day Linlithgow and East Falkirk 36.3 SNP 42.02 Leave
  • Hannah Bardell Livingston 40.1 SNP 43.26 Leave
  • Angus MacNeil Na h-Eileanan an Iar 40.6 SNP 43.9 Leave
  • Patricia Gibson North Ayrshire and Arran 38.9 SNP 42.4 Leave
  • Stephen Gethins North East Fife 32.9 SNP 41.4 Leave (Fife only stats available)
  • Ian Blackford Ross, Skye & Lochaber 40.3 SNP 43.49 Leave

The Tories becoming the Leave Party might not be such a bad move in Scotland after all…

UK Pay Soars as Jobs Boom Continues, Despite Brexit

New jobs figures released today by the ONS show average pay leaping to a growth rate of 4% in the last year, the fastest increase in over a decade, and twice the rate of inflation. Unemployment continues to tumble, seeing its lowest levels in 45 years, and the last year saw over 300,000 more full time jobs than a year ago. All despite Brexit…

Swinson More Popular than Corbyn With Labour 2017 Voters

New Opinium approval ratings for party leaders has shown that Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson is 8% higher than Corbyn… among Labour’s 2017 voters. 

The news of this reality was responded to by utter disbelief by members of the Absolute Boy’s Fan club, naturally.

By comparison, Tory 2017 voters are very much behind the Prime Minister, on +43pts. Versus Corbyn’s -85…

Majority of Remainers Blame Anti-Brexit MPs for Causing No Deal

Some Remain MPs may have chosen to ignore the national will of the people to pander to their own local base, however new polling from YouGov has found they may have shot themselves in the foot, as a majority of Remainers would blame anti-Brexit MPs if we leave with no deal. Wonder if this is persuasive enough to make them EU-Turn… 

The poll, which asked “If Britain ends up leaving the EU without a Brexit deal, which of the below – if any – would you consider to be responsible for that”, showed that unsurprisingly the only group or individual Remainers wouldn’t blame is the EU, with only 44% saying they would be responsible; and Boris would receive the most blame from Remainers with 86% pointing the finger at him.

MPs who opposed Theresa May’s Brexit deal because they wanted to stop Brexit’ and those who ‘wanted a softer Brexit’, hilariously, would receive 57% and 58% of Remainers’ blame respectively.

For Brexiteers, unsurprisingly, the reverse is true; with 79% planning on blaming the EU, vs 53% for Boris. Whatever the outcome of Brexit, we’d better be prepared for years of finger-pointing…

Brits Increasingly Believe the UK Will Leave the EU on 31 October

New YouGov polling has revealed a stark turnaround in the public’s scepticism that the UK will finally leave the EU at the end of October. Around the time Boris took office, just 27% of the country thought the UK would still be an EU member on 1st November. This included absolute majorities of both Remain and Leave voters. Over the course of just one month that perception gap has been closed…

Even a clear majority of Brexit Party voters now believe Boris can deliver… 

Nation United Against ‘National Unity Government’

A new YouGov poll has found that none of the potential candidates to become a ‘temporary Prime Minister’ in a ‘Government of National Unity’ achieve the backing of more than a quarter of the public:

  • Ken Clarke – 25%
  • Harriet Harman – 19%
  • Jeremy Corbyn – 15%
  • Jo Swinson – 13%
  • Caroline Lucas – 13%

It’s even more damning for Jeremy Corbyn when you look at net figures. The person most likely to be installed as a ‘National Unity Prime Minister’ has the lowest approval of any official opposition leader, ever.

YouGov: Brits Prefer No Deal Brexit to PM Corbyn

YouGov has asked the public the question that has been dominating the political news agenda this week. By a whopping margin, Brits prefer a No Deal Brexit to Prime Minister Corbyn. Of those with a view, 58% would rather leave the EU on WTO terms…

‘Politicians vs People’ Latest

YouGov have carried out a poll of what politicians think their role is, compared to what their constituents believe they’re elected to do. Says it all really…

Boris Boost Puts Tories Ahead in Wales

The Boris bounce has not just been felt in England, a YouGov poll taken between Tuesday and Friday last week has found that the Tories have now moved into top spot in Wales. This is where Labour took 49% of the vote in 2017, with the Tories behind by double digits…

Compared to the last YouGov poll, the Tory vote has risen by seven points, whist the Labour vote has fallen by three and Brexit Party fallen by five. Boris will also have an eye on that chunky 18% for the Brexit Party which could be coming his way if he delivers on Brexit…

State of the Race: Boris Dominating Social Media

Aside from the big disparities in social media following (Boris has six times the Twitter following of Hunt, 38 times his Facebook following) the real significant numbers are engagement. Brighton Cafe has crunched the numbers and found that the average Boris tweet is retweeted over 1,000 times, compared to just 104 times for Hunt. More significantly, Hunt had 10,475 Facebook interactions in June. Boris had 243,000. As far as social media is concerned, the race is already over…

ComRes: Boris Wins Majority, Hunt Leads To Hung Parliament

A new poll by ComRes for the Telegraph today shows that in the event Boris is elected leader of the Conservative Party, the party leads Labour by seven points and would win a 40 seat majority in an election. Under Hunt, the two parties are projected to both be tied on 26% with Labour ahead on seats and the Brexit Party winning 23. Under Boris, the Brexit Party win 0…

Tories and Brexit Party Joint Top in Latest YouGov Poll

There’s a rare bit of positive polling news for the Tories this morning as YouGov find them joint top for the first time since before the EU elections. Then, they were tied with Labour on 24%, today they’re tied with the Brexit Party on 22%, leapfrogging Labour and the Lib Dems who fall to fourth. Hardly time for the Tories to start popping the champagne corks, as recently as February they were polling almost double on 43%, before May delayed Brexit…

Sky Poll of General Public Gives Boris Commanding Lead

A Sky Data poll of the general public (not just members of the Conservative party) has found that Boris holds commanding leads in terms of who would make the best Prime Minister, who would be preferred to deal with Brexit, and who would be more likely to win a general election. Hunt has five weeks to make up the difference…

Brexit Party Top, Tories Still Fourth in Latest YouGov Westminster Poll

The latest YouGov poll sets out the scale of the challenge facing the next Tory leader, whoever they might be. The Brexit Party are comfortably out in front on 26%, ahead of the Lib Dems on 22%. Chuka will be delighted, what’s left of ‘The Independent Group For Change’ scrape only 1%.

It’s worth remembering that the now insufferably smug Lib Dems were nowhere until the start of May. Their surge was largely from being at the right place in the right time as the only major ‘protest’ party on the ballot in the local elections. It wasn’t exactly Vince Cable’s charismatic leadership, was it…

Labour and the Tories continue their dire poll performance, Labour are in third with 19%, ahead of the Tories in fourth with just 17%. As recently as February, both the Tories and Labour were polling over 36% each. Now they can only just manage 36% combined…

Who’s Backing Who: Wednesday Update

MPs vote for the first time tomorrow, with results expected at around 1pm. As things stand this afternoon, Boris has added eleven more MPs to his public declarations list compared to yesterday, taking numbers up to 80. Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt have added one each too compared to yesterday. 72% of the Parliamentary Party has now publicly declared…

Shock Westminster Poll Puts Lib Dems First, Brexit Party Second

The latest YouGov poll for The Times is dire reading for both Labour and the Tories as significant support for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems has not faded after the European elections in the way many had expected. The Lib Dems have seemingly finally managed to become the party of the 48%, and the Tories’ failure to take the UK out of the EU when they promised is costing them dearly.[…] Read the rest

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