YouGov: Boris Wins Final Debate 52:48


UPDATE: Further breakdown of public reaction to the debate

Boris Increases Poll Lead over Corbyn as Preferred PM

A new Kantar poll has shown the public’s preference for Boris as PM has risen by 4% since their last poll on the 25th November – up to 41%; with Corbyn falling by 2% over the same period to 22%. It seems not even Richard Burgon’s increased campaign presence can turn around Corbyn’s fortunes…

This morning the FT reported that Tory strategists are anxiously watching for signs that Corbyn is catching up with Johnson in ‘best PM polls’, as this was one of the warning signs of May’s impending doom in 2017. This might steady the nerves of CCHQ somewhat then…

Labour Rakes in Big Money Donations

Labour is now leading the field among big-money donations totalling more than £7,500. Labour can always count on the Union Barons to bankroll a beleaguered Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories will be disappointed with their measly haul…

British Indians Abandoning Labour

A landmark election poll of British Indians has found a 12-point decline in the community’s support for the Labour party since 2017Is there any community Corbyn can’t offend with his foreign policy?…

The abandoning of the Labour Party by British Indians comes after Corbyn sparked a diplomatic incident with the country, after claiming he had discussed the ongoing incident in Kashmir during a meeting with the Congress Party, before being slapped down by the party’s leader who said that was purely an internal affair in which Corbyn had no right to interfere.

The poll also found most British Indians believe UK-India relations will deteriorate more with Corbyn as PM, than Boris. Although third in the poll, the Lib Dems, support has more than doubled since the last election. Undecideds are much higher than average too. Lots of Indian voters are looking for anyone but Corbyn…

YouGov: Boris Narrowly Wins Debate

Boris will celebrate this, given Corbyn is a more natural 1v1 debater…

UPDATE: See the poll results in detail here:

Who’s Killing Here?

The LibDems were making headlines this morning over allegations Jo Swinson killed a squirrel. Guido decided to compile a helpful list of prominent examples of accusations* of animal slaughter by political figures… 

Lib Dems

  • Jo Swinson: Killed a squirrel.
  • Jeremy Thorpe: Had a dog shot.
  • Michael Heseltine: Killed a dog.
  • Michael Dixon: Jailed for killing a cat.

Labour

  • Ed Milliband’s Dad: Killed a cat.
  • Roy Hattersley’s dog Buster: Killed a royal goose.

Tories

  • David Cameron: Shot a stag called Boris.

This is the only poll Guido can see the Lib Dems doing well in this election…

*LibDem leaflet style disclaimer.

Brexit Party Crash to 2% in New Kantar Poll

The Tories have surged to an eighteen point lead in Kantar’s latest poll, largely as a result of the Brexit Party crashing down to just 2% – a fall of seven points. The Lib Dems are also down one, contributing to the Tories’ eight-point rise. Nothing is in the bag about this election but this will make for reassuring reading for CCHQ ahead of tonight’s debate…

Boris Storms Ahead as Preferred PM

 

Boris has taken an even more commanding lead in Survation’s preferred Prime Minister polling. The PM is up six points on last month, with the Lib Dems crashing down to place Swinson behind Corbyn, who himself has fallen by two points.

This mirrors Deltapoll’s findings over the weekend that saw the Lib Dems tumble five points to just 11%. Ironically the Tories are worried that if Swinson’s party continues to plummet, the Remain vote won’t be split enough to win back key targets in metropolitan places like London…

Tories Take 20 Point Lead With Working Class Voters

New polling from YouGov shows a twenty point lead for the Conservatives amongst C2DE (working-class) voters. Amongst the middle classes, this lead drops to nine points. The polling has found that the Labour, Lib Dem, and Green parties are all more popular with middle-class than working-class voters. The ‘Labour’ party again showing it’s anything but…

UPDATE: Chris Curtis from YouGov raises another interesting point from this polling – the Tory lead with working-class voters is growing…

Was Boris’s Fish and Chips Answer a Subtle Targeting Strategy?

Boris’s Party Political Broadcast yesterday included a couple of light-hearted questions, including whether he likes Marmite and whether he prefers fish and chips or a Sunday roast. Boris claimed the former was his favourite. Although he has given up getting battered for the duration of the election

While this might have been a totally innocent answer, interesting analysis shows the constituencies where fish and chip shops are the most dominant restaurant type map almost exactly on to where Boris’s top target seats are; including the North West, North Wales and particularly Cheshire, Derbyshire and South Yorkshire.

The ad looked laid back and breezy, but how many other Easter eggs were hidden in it?…

H/T to the FT, UnHerd and Steve Pickering

Tory Lead Squeezed Down to Six Points

The latest Survation poll has the Labour Party creeping up, gaining three points in one week to 29%, and squeezing the Tory lead down to six points, with the party resting on 35%.

CCHQ will be watching closely to see if this trend continues. Survation was the most accurate pollster in 2017…

YouGov Poll of 11,500 Voters Puts Tories 14% Ahead of Labour

A huge new YouGov poll of over 11,500 voters shows the Tories leading Labour by 14%, with the Lib Dems only 3% behind Corbyn – a result that, if repeated in the election, could see Boris win a three-figure majority.

The poll also shows the SNP are on course for a big win in Scotland, taking 42% of the vote and all but three of the Tories seats. YouGov also sees the Lib Dems beating Labour in their former Scottish heartlands.

In even more dire reading for Corbyn, YouGov polled personality traits for him and Boris, and found the PM’s likeability is 25% higher than Corbyn’s; with the Labour leader ahead in only authenticity, being in touch and honesty.

The enormous start-of-election poll also breaks down regional voting intention, with Labour ahead only in the North East (by 6%), London (by 10%) and Wales (by 1%).

The Brexit Party’s strongest showing remains the North East where they poll 19% – a big problem for the Tories hoping to pick up seats around Middlesbrough. All psephology fans are keeping their eyes peeled for another YouGov seat-by-seat predictor, like that which predicted the 2017 election so accurately…

Poll: Public Say this is a Brexit Election

A new YouGov poll shows the public see this forthcoming December election as even more about Brexit than the 2017 election. Good news for the Tories…

When asked what the most important issue facing the country at this election is, ‘Britain leaving the EU’ has increased to 69%, with health down in prominence in comparison to 2017.

Crime and the environment have also seen huge jumps in public focus, but the worst news for Labour is the NHS has fallen by a large amount. Labour will be desperate to see this change…

Angela Smith Boasts of Impending Election Defeat

Former-Labour MP, turned-TIG, turned-Change UK, turned-‘the Independents’, turned-Lib Dem MP, Angela Smith is carpetbagging from Yorkshire to Graham Brady’s Manchester seat, where the Lib Dems finished over 20,000 votes shy of the Tories in 2017. She’s really relying on tactical voting to win…

Smith has just proudly posted on Twitter that if remainers vote tactically, the Lib Dems can win Altringham and Sale West.[…] Read the rest

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Tories and Labour Up, Lib Dems and Brexit Party Down in Latest Poll

The latest poll from Panelbase out today sees the Brexit Party squeezed down to single figures, and the Lib Dems falling from 17 to just 14%. Meanwhile, the two big parties are picking up votes. The Tories are picking up the most by seemingly not campaigning at all…[…] Read the rest

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Where Should the Brexit Party Target?

Today’s Financial Times splash focuses on rumours that the Brexit Party is preparing not to stand in hundreds of constituencies. The party is polling in low double-digits, meaning they are unlikely to win a single seat, yet it is enough to split the vote and let Remainers pip the Tories to the post, as we saw in the Brecon by-election.[…] Read the rest

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[POLL] Tories Return to 2017 Vote Share

The first polls of the election campaign are now coming in thick and fast – and they make positive reading for the

A new Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard today shows the Tories rocketing up to 8% to 41% – where they were in the 2017 election.[…] Read the rest

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Tories Start 16% Ahead, Curtice Gives Stark Warning

The Tories start the election campaign with a 16 point lead over Labour, who in-turn will find solace from being 9% clear of the Lib Dems. Still lots of undecideds in play for all parties…

However, with First Past the Post and the differences in voting behaviour from region to region, polling expert Sir John Curtice has issued a stark warning to the soaring Tories; predicting there will be over 100 seats won by parties other than the Conservatives and Labour.[…] Read the rest

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Brexit Party Supporters Back the Deal

Despite Nigel’s continuing opposition for opposition’s sake, it seems his usually loyal followers are abandoning him in favour of Boris’s new deal. Last man in the bunker… 

A new Survation poll out this morning shows 67% of Brexit Party voters want the Commons to pass the deal, a little behind the 73% of leave voters and 90% of Conservative voters.[…] Read the rest

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Tories Storming Ahead in the Polls

New YouGov polling for The Times has shown Boris’s Tories soar higher to a 15 point lead, making up more than the Labour and Brexit Party vote shares combined. The ‘Classic Dom’ strategy seems to be working…

Interestingly, the poll found that since July, the Brexit Party vote has fallen by almost two thirds among 2017 Tories, yet only by just 1% among 2017 Labour voters.[…] Read the rest

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