As Hunt appears before the Treasury Committee for his Autumn Statement grilling he’ll have some grim reading from the Organisation of Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) under his arm. New forecasts today have the global economy performing better than expected – just not the UK. Britain’s 2023 growth is expected to sit at 0.5%, while the forecast for 2024 has been downgraded from 0.7% in the OECD’s September interim report to 0.6%. Growth in 2025 is predicted to pick up to only 1.2%. Meanwhile, expected inflation is uprated to the highest in the G7…

UK growth is coming in at well below the G20 and OECD average of 1.4%, and in 2024 only Argentina and sluggish Germany will perform worse. Recommendations include “reforming the costly triple lock uprating of state pensions” and considering the fact that “fiscal pressure on households and businesses has increased significantly” from stealth tax rises.The OECD is warning Sunak to”swiftly implementing planned supply-side reforms to boost potential growth“. Or face doom…

New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that Public Sector New Borrowing in October was £14.9 billion £4.4 billion higher than October last year. That’s the second highest October borrowing since records began in 1993 – only the pandemic year 2020 is higher…

Borrowing is still running 15% below what the OBR forecast in March, because tax receipts were £13 billion higher than predicted. Hunt’s private OBR statistics, delivered last week, are said to tell him there’s around £20 billion in “fiscal headroom” which will be trumpeted to give out tax cuts. Spending is up: public sector pay has increased 8% from last year and welfare benefits by 22%. It’s worth remembering that when growth is zero and spending isn’t cut – debt is increasing – despite Rishi’s pledge to reduce the debt. And debt is taxation deferred…

The relentless negative news flow for the Tories continues, a YouGov poll has the Tories polling at their lowest with the firm since Rishi became leader, with only 21% of people intending to vote for Tory in the next General Election. The new figures give Labour a 23 point lead of 44%, which would result in a 400 seat Labour majority in the next election if the polls translate to reality. This follows the cabinet reshuffle, the Rwanda plan being ruled unlawful and a revolt from the Tory right triggering turbulence for the party. Surely “things can only get better”…

As economists argue today over new ONS labour market stats, Guido notices 229,000 working days were lost to strikes in September this year. Last year 2.47 million working days in total were lost to strike action, the highest number since 1989. The UK looks set to smash its 2022 record at 2.33 million days lost from January to September alone. So only 140,000 more days will have to be lost to break the 2022 record. No hard task for the picket line enthusiasts…

Pollsters will be looking forward to working out what people make of Rishi’s reshuffle. In the meantime, YouGov polled Brits on a potential Cameron return as Foreign Secretary back in 2018 when hacks brought up the potential move. 53% opposed the move, 39% were strongly opposed. 22% thought it would be a good idea. Probably no sea change since then…

This year 47% of people said Cameron was a bad PM compared to 22% who thought he was good. When asked in October, 36% said Sunak is worse than Cameron was – 16% said he’s been better. We will have to wait to see whether this shifts Labour’s 21-point lead…

The ONS have released GDP numbers for the third quarter this year – a fat zero. The economy keeps flatlining as decreases in the service sector cancelled out minor growth in construction activity. GDP actually fell by 0.03% in Q3, though the ONS has rounded that out…

Markets were actually expecting a 0.1% decrease in Q3 and no one is predicting meaningful growth will return in the near future. Meanwhile, an extra 1.2 million people are getting dragged into the claws of HMRC through savings rates. HMRC are complaining they don’t have enough resources to cope. Guido can think of a few tax cuts to ease their burden…