Sky Poll of General Public Gives Boris Commanding Lead

A Sky Data poll of the general public (not just members of the Conservative party) has found that Boris holds commanding leads in terms of who would make the best Prime Minister, who would be preferred to deal with Brexit, and who would be more likely to win a general election. Hunt has five weeks to make up the difference…

Brexit Party Top, Tories Still Fourth in Latest YouGov Westminster Poll

The latest YouGov poll sets out the scale of the challenge facing the next Tory leader, whoever they might be. The Brexit Party are comfortably out in front on 26%, ahead of the Lib Dems on 22%. Chuka will be delighted, what’s left of ‘The Independent Group For Change’ scrape only 1%.

It’s worth remembering that the now insufferably smug Lib Dems were nowhere until the start of May. Their surge was largely from being at the right place in the right time as the only major ‘protest’ party on the ballot in the local elections. It wasn’t exactly Vince Cable’s charismatic leadership, was it…

Labour and the Tories continue their dire poll performance, Labour are in third with 19%, ahead of the Tories in fourth with just 17%. As recently as February, both the Tories and Labour were polling over 36% each. Now they can only just manage 36% combined…

Who’s Backing Who: Wednesday Update

MPs vote for the first time tomorrow, with results expected at around 1pm. As things stand this afternoon, Boris has added eleven more MPs to his public declarations list compared to yesterday, taking numbers up to 80. Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt have added one each too compared to yesterday. 72% of the Parliamentary Party has now publicly declared…

Shock Westminster Poll Puts Lib Dems First, Brexit Party Second

The latest YouGov poll for The Times is dire reading for both Labour and the Tories as significant support for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems has not faded after the European elections in the way many had expected. The Lib Dems have seemingly finally managed to become the party of the 48%, and the Tories’ failure to take the UK out of the EU when they promised is costing them dearly. This could just be an outlier, but other recent polls make clear we’re hurtling towards an unstable time of four party politics…

UPDATE: YouGov have revealed that the Brexit Party were not prompted in this poll. Quite a result for a write in option…

Remainers Overwhelmingly Outspent Leavers on Facebook

Guido reported during the campaign, Change UK were massively outstripping the spending of other parties on Facebook throughout the election. By the last week of the campaign, the Lib Dems caught up with Change UK, followed by the Greens, Labour, then the Tories. In that crucial week, of the parties in England that won seats, the Brexit Party spent the least and won the most…

European Parliament Projection

Europe Elects has produced a handy projection of how the European Parliament is likely to look, aggregating polls from all 28 member states. Europe Elects looks like it has used this combination of the previous five polls in the UK to determine the results, putting Brexit Party on 30 seats, followed by Labour, then the Lib Dems, Tories, and Greens. Guido has helpfully highlighted the projected British seats to show just how much influence the UK’s 73 MEPs have over the a parliament that isn’t allowed to propose law…

Change UK Massively Outspend Every Other Party on Facebook

Facebook’s ad library has revealed that Change UK have spent £88,000 over the course of the last week on almost 500 micro-targeted ad campaigns. That’s four times the spend of the Brexit Party, who have only posted 70 ad campaigns. The Brexit Party have spent less than Change UK, the Lib Dems, and the Labour Party. Probably a good idea to proof read those adverts, this one looks like the Tiggers are campaigning against the SNP…

 

On top of that the European Parliament has spent £70,000. One for the data conspiracy theorists…

Hat-tip: Rowland Manthorpe

UPDATE: Despite being massively outspent, the Brexit Party has outstripped every other party on Facebook engagement

Brexit Party Take 17-Point Lead in Wales, Labour Vote Halves

A new YouGov poll for ITV and Cardiff University has found that the Brexit Party now has a 17 point lead, up a whopping 26 points from April. Since last month, the Labour vote has halved and ChUK has fallen from 8% to just 2%, too small for Guido’s bar chart. On these numbers, the Brexit Party takes half of all Welsh seats, double the number projected for the self described ‘Party of Wales’. Chwerthin yn uchel…

Brexit Party Could Win 9/12 Regions

A shocking new YouGov poll has found that the Brexit Party has hit 35%, a number Ed Miliband thought could make him Prime Minister. The poll sees the Tories slump down to single figures and the Lib Dems overtake Labour. ChUK and UKIP were polling so low they didn’t merit a spot on Guido’s chart

Election Maps UK has visualised a set projection for this poll, showing the Brexit Party winning every region in England and Wales except London, but even there picking up the same number as seats as the Labour Party, and even receiving 1/3 of the seats in Scotland. If the results in less than a week’s time are anything like this it would be a remarkable feat for a party that has existed for just five weeks…

Brexit Party a Strong Second in London

A poll of Londoners by YouGov for Queen Mary University of London shows the Brexit Party coming a strong second in London, just four points behind Labour and delivering them the same number of seats. This projection gives Labour, Brexit and the Lib Dems two seats each, with one seat a piece for the Greens and Tories. Change UK would get no seats. Ladbrokes are offering 2/1 on Change UK not winning anything anywhere. If they can’t win in London, where can they..?

Brexit Party Take 13 Point Lead

New Opinium polling for the European Elections conducted on 8th May puts the Brexit Party 13 points ahead of Labour, on an astonishing 34%. Meanwhile ChUK are now polling lower than the SNP…

Astonishingly, Opinium found that the Brexit Party is now just one point behind the Tories, poised to take second place. This should be terrifying reading for all Tory MPs…

UPDATE: These poll numbers are corroborated by a new bombshell poll for the Sunday Telegraph showing the Tories slipping even further back to third place behind the Brexit Party. The Telegraph says this will give Farage’s party 49 MPs, with the Tories losing over 130…

Remain’s Facebook ‘Dark Money’ Massively Outweighs Leave

New data published by Facebook has revealed that yet again Remain is massively outspending Leave on social media, with almost twice as much money being spent by second referendum groups. Guido has listed relevant Facebook spending above £10,000…

  • People’s Vote: £433,384
  • Britain’s Future £422,746
  • Best For Britain: £317,463
  • UK Government*: £245,353
  • The Conservative Party*: £114,924
  • Liberal Democrats: £82,600
  • The Labour Party*: £75,462
  • We are the 52%: £51,845
  • Right To Vote: £27,296
  • The Brexit Party £19,082
  • Renew: £13,275

In total this puts dedicated big Remain spending at £874,018, compared to just £493,673 for Leave. This hasn’t stopped the media attacking The Brexit Party for spending less than £20,000. Loopy Remainers have even called this ‘Dark Money’…

But it isn’t. Political parties have to declare their funding by law. The ‘dark money’ listed here is that which is spent by pressure groups like People’s Vote and Best for Britain, not political parties. This puts the Leave ‘dark money spend at £474,591, compared to a Remain ‘dark money’ spend of £778,143. More post truth politics from Remain campaigners…

*Groups not specifically advertising about Brexit

Young People are the Most Pro Market

New ‘Eurobarometerpolling conducted by Kantar has revealed that contrary to Corbynista rhetoric, young people are the most pro-market of any generation, favouring competition over state control by massive margins at every question asked. Every generation rejects state control over competition, but the youngest do most of all…

Interestingly too, the UK is one of the most pro-capitalist countries in the EU. The polling reveals that UK citizens overwhelmingly agree that “competition allows for better prices for consumers”, “competition between companies allows for more choice for consumers”, and “competition encourages innovation and economic growth” storming ahead of the other large EU countries Germany, France, and Italy in each of those categories.

EU countries don’t want the UK to leave because it is a liberalising influence- dragging the EU forward while the EU holds it back. Leaving will enable the UK to deliver more pro-market policies, and consequentially more growth and prosperity…

New Poll Shows That Everyone Is Losing

A new ComRes poll for the Telegraph has revealed that support for both major parties has collapsed down to Cameron/Miliband levels, at 32% apiece, a whole ten points below what the Tories achieved in the General Election. It’s not just bad news for the Tories and Labour, the Lib Dems have slipped down to fifth place, polling behind both Gerard Batten’s UKIP and Chuka Umunna’s ‘Change UK’. There aren’t any winners here…

The same poll shows that now as many people now see revoking Article 50 entirely on Friday (40%) as ‘an acceptable Brexit outcome’ as back leaving with No Deal (38%). A second referendum, with options rigged between May’s deal and Remaining also attracts 38%. Wednesday’s likely outcome of a long delay only attracts the support of 34% of the electorate. There is no majority for any option…

Guido is coming round to a penalty shoot out solution…

Tory Members Now Back May’s Deal

For the first time, ConservativeHome’s authoritative survey of Tory members has shown that over 60% now reluctantly back the Withdrawal Agreement for the first time. Just 36% remain opposed. Members can see that No Deal simply isn’t the alternative any more…

More key Brexit influencers have also reached the same conclusion today – “Brexiteers’ Brain” Shanker Singham declares that MPs’ best chance of still getting to a Canada plus-style Brexit is voting for the deal, while BrexitCentral’s Jonathan Isaby has reluctantly concluded the same. There are still routes to a proper Brexit if the deal goes through, if the UK doesn’t leave now the chance may be gone for decades or more…

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn Hit Lowest Ever Ratings

A new poll by YouGov has revealed both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have slid back to their lowest ever net favourability ratings. The Prime Minister is down to -39 and the Leader of the Opposition down to a staggering -53. Just 51% of Tory voters now have a favourable opinion of their own party leader, but only 42% of Labour voters have a favourable opinion of Corbyn. Impressively, Corbyn manages to have both higher unfavourables and lower favourables than the Prime Minister among the public…

YouGov puts the recent slide in support for Corbyn down to “Brexit indecisiveness”. You don’t say…

Government Borrowing Lowest It Has Been In 17 Years

New ONS figures released this morning reveal that borrowing in the current financial year was £23.1bn, £18bn less than a year before. Still no sign of that Leave vote-induced debt explosion…

Helping the good news was the fact that retail sales have risen unexpectedly strongly this month, showing consumer confidence remains high despite predictions from the experts. Now the UK’s total deficit isn’t far off our gross EU contribution…

Any deficit is a bad deficit, but adding just £23.1 billion to the national debt this year is a lot better than last year when we added £41.1 billion to it, and massively improved than the £103 billion deficit the UK faced in 2010. Guido will not be satisfied until the deficit is eliminated so the national debt can start to fall in real terms…

60% of People Think the BBC is Biased Against Brexit

Both Brexiteers and FBPErs both like to complain that the BBC is biased against their side, now the country as a whole has given its verdict and come down on the side of the Brexiteers. A new ComRes poll for Leave Means Leave has revealed that, excluding don’t knows, 60% of people think that “organisations like the BBC seem in favour of remaining in the EU and have not provided an impartial view of Brexit.” This rises to 75% among Leave voters…

The same poll found that 64% of people with a view think that “The Civil Service seems in favour of remaining in the EU and could have misled both ministers and the public with research designed to put Brexit in a negative light.” An anonymous whistleblower confirmed as much in the Telegraph this morning. The British people know an establishment stitch up when they see one…

Unemployment Falls to Lowest Rate in 45 Years

New figures published this morning by the Office For National Statistics has revealed that the proportion of people in paid work has risen from 75.3% to 76.1%, the highest employment rate on record. Despite Brexit…

At the same time real wages have risen yet again by 1.5% after inflation, and the unemployment rate has fallen to just 3.9%. This is the first time it has been below 4% in 45 years. Guido is still waiting for those 800,000 job losses that the Remain Campaign promised us…

Happy Commonwealth Day!

Guido has crunched the numbers and can reveal that since the EU was created in 1992, the size of the combined Commonwealth economy has ballooned by 258%, whereas the EU’s combined economies have grown by just 119%. Added to this, the average EU growth rate today sits at just 1.4%, less than half of that of the Commonwealth’s 3.3%.[…] Read the rest

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Fresh from making his campaign pledge to kill off old people, Jeremy Hunt says on Islamophobia…

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