Guido hears that Number 10 has been telling Cabinet ministers that they must accept the backstop or else rebel MPs will amend the Trade Bill to force the UK to stay in a customs union outright. Not exactly sending out a strong signal that Downing Street believe the merits of the backstop will speak for themselves…

This appears a red herring to Guido for a number of reasons:

As the Labour Lords pointed out, the Government hasn’t even scheduled the Lords Committee stage of the Bill yet, so it will not be making its way back to the Commons any time soon. Any deal will likely be wrapped up long before it does…

Additionally, for all that Downing Street likes to play up the chances of being defeated in the Commons on a customs union, the fact is that every time the Commons has voted on a customs union in the past, there has been a majority against it.

And even if the Government is defeated on a customs union amendment, they can ultimately just drop the Trade Bill – there is nothing so essential in it that needs to be passed into statute right now. The Government has wriggle room on the Trade Bill, not on the backstop…

New Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s “economic guru,” Paulo Guedes, has suggested that the country could head for a ‘soft Braexit’ from the continent’s fledgling EU-like supranational organisation Mercosur, the ‘Southern Common Market’.

Following the EU model, Mercosur has recently established a parliament with direct elections scheduled for 2020. It has even proposed a single currency, the ‘Gaucho’. The Union consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela, although the latter has been suspended since November 2016.

Guedes, who is touted as becoming a “super minister” in Bolsonaro’s administration, has slammed the agreement and particularly its customs union, as bad for the economy, calling it a “cognitive prison.” 

“Am I only going to trade with Venezuela, Bolivia or Argentina? No. We will trade with the world, with more countries. We will do commerce. What if I want to trade with other countries?”

Brazil is a country of 210 million people. Leaving Mercosur’s customs union could be a game changer for boosting world trade…

As Guido was travelling through Dublin Airport last night, he noticed the remote customs checks the Americans have, 3,000 miles away from the US border. The Republic of Ireland are perfectly happy with the principle of remote customs clearance, except for when it’s politically convenient not to be…

Leaving the Customs Union has been a central plank of May’s Brexit policy since the Lancaster House Speech in January 2017. It has even survived Chequers, so far…

However, in the Summer 2018 edition of the Westminster Conservatives members’ magazine Blueprint, local MP and Foreign Office Minister Mark Field writes:

“As I am a Minister in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, I am duty bound to support the government in the voting lobbies on Brexit related legislation but I do recognise the concerns that have been expressed by many, particularly with regard to the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland. I continue to make the case behind the scenes for a customs union type arrangement to assist exporting businesses and address the Irish issue…”

Why is a government minister going on the record to oppose one of the central policies of his own government? Another naughty Field for May to run through…

The Department for International Trade is interviewing for a ‘Business Support Manager’. The second bullet point in the five “key areas of responsibility” gives away that the department is developing policy about membership of the Customs Union. This directly breaks one of Theresa May’s most important red lines…

“Customs Union: with G7 support, leading BEAT’s [Business Environment Advisory Team] engagement with those developing the policy about the UK’s membership of the Customs Union, as it develops.”

Trade Secretary Liam Fox has consistently said that “no form of customs union is acceptable after Brexit” and that membership of one would constitute “a complete sell-out of Britain’s national interests.” His department seems to disagree…

UPDATE: The DIT have been in touch to say that the description was “incorrect,” despite the job description referencing the Customs Union twice.

“This job description was incorrect – the government has made very clear that the UK is leaving the Customs Union. We will establish a new and ambitious customs arrangement with the EU that will allow us to maintain as frictionless trade as possible in goods between the UK and EU.”

Guido hears that interviews began today…

Tory close to Theresa May tells @nicholaswatt the PM is expected to endorse version of ‘max-fac’ technology-based solution for UK customs relationship with the EU #newsnight pic.twitter.com/so6QSR3rp8

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) June 11, 2018

Newsnight’s Nick Watt reckons Number 10 will eventually plump for Mac Fac, but we will stay in a customs union for a very long time before we get there. Which carries the risk that we might never leave…