Sunak Sees Support Slump by 10%, Members Won’t Miss Zahawi

Rishi’s had a lot on his plate over the past month, from strikes to seatbelt scandal, and it’s been reflected in his popularity amongst conservatives. Conservative Home’s latest cabinet league table is out, and the Prime Minister is on 2.9%, down 10.2% on the last outing. Suella Braverman has also taken a hit, she’s on 17.3% – a decrease of 15%. Although Jeremy Hunt hasn’t lost any support, he hardly has reason to celebrate. He’s sat on -6.2%.

The top 5 most popular cabinet members remain unchanged. As the month’s big winner – no doubt from the government’s response to Scotland’s gender bill – Alister Jack climbs by 6%. Sunak’s decision to sack Nadhim Zahawi won’t have made him any enemies – at least from ConHome readers. The former Party Chairman saw his support plummet by a staggering 67.3% before his sacking…

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Rishi and Hunt Plummet in Popularity Amongst Conservative Members

In news that will not surprise co-conspirators, the current Cabinet isn’t popular with anyone much – nor even among Conservative members. The latest Conservative Home cabinet popularity league tables have been published and very few come off well. The big losers are Rishi Sunak, on 9%, and Jeremy Hunt on -9%. Both fell by 40% in less than a month…

Elsewhere, Dominic Raab may be feeling the heat from the Lobby’s campaign for his scalp – he dropped by 18%. Michael Gove also lost support. Robert Jenrick came dead last.

The average score for a cabinet minister was 21.7, lower than the 23.7 under Liz Truss and the last month of Boris. For context, Boris’s first cabinet averaged 57.4…

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Tory Members Don’t Support Government’s Economic Policy

The Tory membership doesn’t support their own government’s economic policy, according to the latest Conservative Home panel poll. Opposition stands at 48.78% and support at 41.87%. 9.35% don’t know. 

It can’t come as much surprise. As Rishi’s supporters point out, he was warning of the consequences of Liz Truss’s policies during the summer contest, and the membership still voted for Liz’s low tax package. Support at 41.87 is actually 0.8% lower than Rishi received from the members during the summer…

mdi-timer 29 November 2022 @ 09:50 29 Nov 2022 @ 09:50 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
ConHome Poll Has Usual Faces on Top, Penny Lower Than Rishi, Gavin Comfortably Bottom

Does it say something about the Conservative Party that its most popular cabinet ministers are the ones who spend most time abroad? Guido will let co-conspirators ponder that. Ben Wallace, Kemi and Cleverly are, unsurprisingly, at the top. Rishi’s made a strong leap to the top third of the pack, given the last members’ poll he appeared in – back in July – had him on -2.7. He comfortably beats Penny, suggesting he may have been able to win the premiership even if she’d cleared the 100 backer hurdle and gone to a vote of the membership. Rishi’s top allies – Jenrick and Dowden – languish at the bottom, albeit eclipsed by the unpopularity of Gavin Williamson’s -28.8%. And that’s before he’s even gotten going…

mdi-timer 3 November 2022 @ 09:50 3 Nov 2022 @ 09:50 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Opinium Was Most Accurate Tory Leadership Pollster

Opinium has once again won the crown for most accurate poll during the Tory leadership election. After winning the same accolade at the 2019 election, Opinium were closest to the final result. They add the usual caveats that polling political parties is much trickier than the general public…

All the polls over-stated Liz versus Rishi, Guido reckons the final placing based on their last calls is this:

  1. Opinium – 7.3 variance
  2. TechneUK – 13.3 variance
  3. YouGov – 17.3 variance
  4. ConHome – 21.3 variance

Liz winning by 14.7 points is decent, though less than the 30-point lead some earlier polls pointed to. Asked whether they reckon the polls were always off, or whether there was a last-minute improvement to Rishi’s numbers, a Team Rishi source said they don’t know, though the fact the first YouGov poll ended up being 15 points off the actual result left them satisfied they ran a decent campaign. Let the spinning commence in earnest…

mdi-timer 5 September 2022 @ 16:32 5 Sep 2022 @ 16:32 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
More MPs Now Backing Liz than Rishi

When Chris Skidmore defected to Team Truss six days ago, Rishi had this to say at that evening’s hustings in Cheltenham:

“In the Parliamentary stage of this, I led every single round… I have the most support from Members of Parliament… it’s from Parliamentary colleagues across the spectrum… I’m really proud to have all their support.”

Today ConservativeHome’s running list of MP backers has Liz overtake Rishi’s parliamentary support, with 136 declared supporters to his 124. About that, Rishi…

UPDATE Guido expects at least eight more MPs to announce they are backing Liz tonight:

1. Ben Bradley
2. Bill Wiggin
3. Conor Burns
4. Derek Thomas
5. Edward Leigh
6. James Daly
7. Robin Millar
8. John Whittingdale

UPDATE 21:00 Our spreadsheet now has 125 supporters for Rishi and 152 for Liz. See here.

mdi-timer 17 August 2022 @ 16:28 17 Aug 2022 @ 16:28 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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