A new rating of pollsters’ accuracy compiled by Election Maps UK has Ipsos MORI coming out as Britain’s top polling company by a mile, when taking into account the 2017 and 2019 general elections, and the 2019 EU elections. Opinium and YouGov tied in second; Survation came third, ICM, BMG and Savanta Comres came bottom with average errors of up to 3%. Pollsters are more bitchy than hairdressers so this will cause Guido’s phone to ring hot with explanations of “flawed methodology”…
Hat-tip: @ElectionMapsUK
The first batch of polls are out and they do not make good reading for Downing Street. Boris now has a negative rating of -1% according to Savanta, who have him well behind Starmer (+12%). Boris has taken a significant hit, falling from +19% just four days ago to -1% today. Is this a Cummings caused temporary blip or a permanent state of affairs remains to be seen.
ComRes has overall support falling by 16 points this weekend to -2% due to the Cummings affair. At the start of the month they enjoyed 35% backing…
Cummings told reporters he “doesn’t care“ how his lockdown travel looks; Boris does on the other hand have to care about popularity. Those in Downing Street with long memories will recall that on a Bank holiday weekend in 2009, the then PM’s special adviser Damian McBride’s misbehaviour saw Labour drop 9% points that weekend. The Tories broke through the 40% ceiling in the polls and went on to win the next election…
A ComRes poll for the Telegraph asked people their view on the statement “Parliament has had plenty of time to debate Brexit and we should just get on with leaving the EU”. 60% just want parliament to get on with it…
47% think there should be a General Election as soon as possible after the 31st October 2019, 41% think it should be before. Suspect now it will be after…
A majority (54%) of the public agree that Boris Johnson needs to deliver Brexit by any means, even if that meant suspending Parliament, according to the latest ComRes poll for The Telegraph. Including ‘don’t knows’ there is still a clear 44% in favour to 37% against, this is backed up by another question that finds 40% of people who think Boris is more in tune with the public than Parliament. Only 25% agree that Parliament is more in tune with the public than Boris…
Naturally Remoaners are hitting the roof over the fact ‘don’t knows’ have been excluded from the headline, and that the poll used the word “Boris”. Funnily enough Guido can’t remember them making such a fuss at the endless series of highly loaded “Final Say” polling questions pumped out by the People’s Vote campaign…
On the day that he launches his leadership campaign we learn that a Conservative Party led by Rory Stewart would be destroyed, he is an existential threat to the Tories being an electoral force and the party under his leadership would be reduced to 51 seats – less than the Liberal Democrats would win. According to pollsters ComRes, only one leadership candidate will win a majority, Boris Johnson. Boris will smash Corbyn and win the Tories a 140 seat majority…
A new ComRes poll for the Telegraph has revealed that support for both major parties has collapsed down to Cameron/Miliband levels, at 32% apiece, a whole ten points below what the Tories achieved in the General Election. It’s not just bad news for the Tories and Labour, the Lib Dems have slipped down to fifth place, polling behind both Gerard Batten’s UKIP and Chuka Umunna’s ‘Change UK’. There aren’t any winners here…
The same poll shows that now as many people now see revoking Article 50 entirely on Friday (40%) as ‘an acceptable Brexit outcome’ as back leaving with No Deal (38%). A second referendum, with options rigged between May’s deal and Remaining also attracts 38%. Wednesday’s likely outcome of a long delay only attracts the support of 34% of the electorate. There is no majority for any option…
Guido is coming round to a penalty shoot out solution…
