Guido reported last week that Tom Tugendhat soft-launched his leadership bid with a security-focussed op-ed. At a private fundraiser on a rooftop bar in London last month the leadership hopeful went into more detail on why he thinks a land invasion of Taiwan actually isn’t in China’s sights right now:

“I don’t know how many of you have done any military service at all, but I can tell you, running up and down hills is quite difficult at the best of times. If you’re doing it with weapons and packs, it’s harder. And if you’re doing it when your enemy is very well embedded in and shooting at you. Trust me, it’s really not very appealing. I did it in Helmand a few times. It is really rather unpleasant. And when you see what Taiwan looks like, that would be a very, very difficult landing. Now, personally, I don’t think that the Chinese are planning it for exactly that reason, I think it is a very difficult thing to do.“

Reluctance to commit to a land invasion is dependent on a high deterrent and keeping the Chinese off complete control of the sea and the sky. A source close to Tugendhat tells Guido “he continues to believe that the best way of keeping Taiwan safe against the threat of invasion is through robustly deterring the Chinese regime.” The Foreign Affairs Select Committee’s 2023 report says: “China has been developing its military with the taking of Taiwan, via force or coercion, in mind“. Relations with China are likely to play a big role in leadership hopefuls’ pitches to the party as figures like Iain Duncan Smith push for a massively more hawkish stance. On the domestic front Tugendhat takes a sombre tone:

“One of the things that we’ve got to work out is how do we make sure that our relationship with China is one that works because, frankly, at the moment, it’s been unbalanced and that’s a real challenge. Part of that, I’m afraid, is down to me and down to the work we have to do in stopping Chinese spies messing about in our backyard, because, frankly it’s a bloody nightmare, and they should stop.“

Expect more jostling over security in the months to come as politicians commit to different levels of long-awaited de-sinofication. It’ll be hawk on hawk…

Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride has the morning round and spoke to Sky News about the massive Ministry of Defence data hack allegedly carried out by China, which nabbed the names and bank details of service personnel. A few more of these and the Tories might come round to end-to-end encryption…

“It is a third party database coincidentally, not one run directly by the MoD, and of course they are there to advise and provide support to those who may be concerned about the fact that this data has been breached.”

Stride says it’s an “assumption” that China carried out the attack and that the MoD acted “swiftly” to take down the payroll database which was accessed by hackers. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is due to give a statement to the Commons this afternoon on the situation. It’s one a month at this rate…

Last night’s 1922 committee meeting with backbenchers and Lord Cameron didn’t appease the China hawks the way it intended. Much of the meeting was consumed by anger over the government still labelling China as a mere “challenge“. Not least Sir Iain Duncan Smith saying the position was like “an elephant giving birth to a mouse”…

It seems fury from the backbenches has hit home. This morning on Times Radio Education Secretary Gillian Keegan conceded that China was indeed a “security threat“. Perhaps because of latest revelations exposed by an unprecedented joint operation by Washington and London that there’s been a decade-long campaign of Chinese espionage…

Now it looks like Deputy Prime Minister Dowden will declare China as threat, telling MPs “we are currently in the process of collective Government agreement”. What will Lord Cameron say?

Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden has told MPs that Beijing was behind a wave of cyber attacks against MPs and peers, as well as a hack on the Electoral Commission. He sought to reassure the House that the hack won’t have an impact on voters or future elections, while saying the attacks were “completely unacceptable“. That’s certainly one way of putting it…

Dowden repeated that this shows a “clear and persistent pattern of behaviour that signals hostile intent from China“, which has resulted in sanctions on two individuals and a company linked to a Chinese state-affiliated group. Despite these revelations, China remains just a mere “challenge” to the UK. Meanwhile, China hawk and one of three MPs thought to have been a target, Iain Duncan Smith, is pushing for the government to label China a “threat”…

Just Stop Oil donor turned pro-Labour election campaigner Dale Vince has claimed “China’s a world leader in renewables“. Vince says “all my right wing friends who like to say ‘what about China?’” are wrong thanks to an article in Carbon Brief saying the country is “all but guaranteed to push fossil-fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions into decline“. CCP propagandists couldn’t write it better themselves…

Those not living in eco-communist fantasy land will note China accounted for 30.9% of global carbon emissions in 2021 and embarked on a huge coal-fired power station building spree in summer 2022 which shows little sign of slowing down. China’s Net Zero target date, meanwhile, is 2060 and the country is rated “highly insufficient” on climateactiontracker.org. More hot air from Vince…

Plots and intrigue kicked into gear almost as soon as the King left Parliament yesterday when the APPG for the Chagos Islands was taken over in a coup by Tory MPs. The APPG was previously controlled by supporters of the FCDO’s apparent plan to give the islands away to Mauritius. The government started negotiations with Mauritius in November last year…

30 Tory MPs flooded into the AGM last night under direction of secret plans and voted Labour chairman Mike Kane out. The new chairman is Tory MP Henry Smith, whose Crawley constituency contains the highest number of Chagossians in the UK, some of whom have launched a legal challenge to stop the negotiations and keep the islands British. 2,000 of them were kicked out in 1968 to build an American military base…

The successful coup’s organisers say giving the islands away will cut crucial access to the Indian and Pacific Oceans and give China undue influence in the region. They’re warning the rest of British overseas territories could go the same way if British interests and self-determination aren’t considered. Daniel Kawczynski MP tells Guido: “We will not allow them to trash self-determination, overwise it puts at risk places like Gibraltar and others as well“. New chairman Henry Smith says now “Parliament is watching” and the Foreign Office should make proper reference to MPs. The battle over the fate of the islands is heating up…