Westminster’s eyes are moving onto housing as the election gets closer. While Gove waves the flag for his leasehold reform, the Centre for Policy Studies has been busy calculating how badly we’ve been doing on housbuilding in recent years. Now that net migration is at 1.1% of the population, a population equivalent to the city of Birmingham has arrived to the UK in the last two years. The housebuilding target for England remains set at 300,000 homes per year with an assumption of net migration at 170,500. At least the government have blown one figure out of the water…
The CPS has calculated England should be building 515,000 homes annually, 73% higher than the official target, and that we’ve underbuilt over the last decade by around 1.3 million homes. Meanwhile, the Adam Smith Institute has commissioned polling from JL Partners which manages to tease some support for building on greenbelt land out of the public. They’ve worked out that a policy in which a proportion of the profits from development from greenbelt land “goes back to the community” in some form has net support both among the general public and mortgage holders. The 18-24 age range is most in support, though monetary or “community” compensation will be needed to convince the public to build meaningfully. Prizes to be won for whomever can think up the right housing scheme to offer voters…
Wonk world has reacted to Hunt’s Autumn Statement, the general consensus from the free market think tanks being that there’s a few positive announcements, though not enough to be excited about. Guido gives you the run down…
The Institute of Economic Affairs’ Mark Littlewood welcomes the NI cut and permanent full expensing, though cautions that there is far more work to be done to reduce the tax burden and decrease spending. He called the statement “a step in the right direction, not a leap”…
The Taxpayers’ Alliance called the statement a “mixed bag” of good and bad news. Chief executive John O’Connell said, “Cuts to taxes for businesses and workers will be warmly welcomed, but the fiscal drag of frozen thresholds means the UK is still on track for an even bigger tax burden by the end of this decade.” Not a huge cheer from the TPA…
The Growth Commission points out that “while the cut in National Insurance Contributions by 2 percentage points will add 0.6% to GDP per capita after 20 years, it needs to be borne in mind that the freezing of tax allowances had already cost 1.3% of GDP”. Co-chairman Douglas McWilliams says the measures “are falling short of getting us out of economic stagnation”.
The Centre for Policy Studies welcome the permanent full expensing, something they’ve been campaigning for for many years. However, they warn against the decision to maintain the triple lock which “prioritises older people at the expense of younger workers”. Robert Colvile, CPS Director, cautioned: “The economy, and our long-term growth prospects, are still far from where they need to be.” Still much work to be done…
The Adam Smith Institute‘s Maxwell Marlow says “there is much to be positive about this statement“, praising the announcement of “a number of pro-business measures”. Though he cautions that Hunt will still need to “plan for public spending restraint”. The invisible hand will do its work…
The campaigners over at Stop the Taxi Tax say that Hunt’s pledge to consult on the 20% non-Black cab taxi VAT is “good news, but there’s no time to waste to stop this damaging tax“.
Director of Onward, Sebastian Payne welcomed the measures, saying, “Today’s Autumn Statement showed the best of moderate conservatism – combining bold measures to boost growth and slash taxes, with support for struggling workers and families.” Optimistic tone from the wets…
Douglas McWilliams, Co-Chairman of the Growth Commission says
“… there was little acknowledgement of just how high the public spending bill now is – and the impact such a large state has on the prospects for economic growth. My overall sense of this statement is that the Chancellor has taken a loaf of bread from the taxpayer and given us back a couple of slices.”
Not a full return to tax-cutting Tories…
The Centre for Policy Studies is celebrating its 50th anniversary today with a fresh bout of policy projects to see free marketeers into the new year. Lord Frost is joining the ranks to lead a “major policy project” styled after “Stepping Stones”, the Thatcherite 10-commandment report that shaped free market policies in the 80s. Guido seems to remember Frost doing the exact same thing for Policy Exchange last year…
Meanwhile former No. 10 housing guru Alex Morton is rejoining the CPS as a research fellow after a brief stint at the IEA. The centre-right think tanks are gearing up for the coming Tory wars…
Contrary to the Twitterati narrative that a conspiracy of think tanks clustered in Tufton Street wields the most influence in wonk world, it’s actually the centre-left think tanks that have the most money and manpower. Guido’s crunched the numbers.
The Tony Blair Institute, Resolution Foundation, New Economics Foundation, Institute for Government and the Institute for Public Policy Research have a combined headcount of 497. This compares to Tufton Street’s more modest headcount of 116.
The top 5 centre-left think tanks had a combined turnover of £79,814,431 last year. In comparison, their top 5 right-of-centre rivals – the Centre for Policy Studies, Institute of Economic Affairs, Centre for Social Justice, Onward and Policy Exchange – had a combined turnover of a mere £9,032,646. The high media profile of the right-of-centre wonks is to their credit given by how much they are outnumbered and out-gunned in everything except the persuasiveness of their arguments. Nevertheless, the myth of the insidious influence of “Tufton Street” lives rent-free in the minds of conspiracy theorists.
It should be noted that the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) alone has a whopping 337 staff, with an eye-watering turnover of £65,247,459. Arguably the TBI is a do-tank, and consulting for foreign governments is a big source of revenue which allows it to nurture the next generation of Labour SpAds and future Labour Party MPs. One senior New Labour source reckons that the TBI is about selling Larry Ellison’s Oracle databases to African developing countries – Ellison has given Blair’s institute over $80 million in recent years. Blair has known Ellison since his time in Downing Street, when Oracle became a significant supplier of software to the government.
No sooner does one right-wing conference end than another one begin. Next up it’s the “Margaret Thatcher Conference on Opportunity” organised by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS). Entering its seventh year, the bash is set for June 12 at the Guildhall, with headline appearances from Education Secretary Gillian Keegan and the chief sword-bearer herself Penny Mordaunt.
Keegan will be the opening act at 12:45, with Mordaunt hitting the stage later in the afternoon for a conversation with US polling guru Frank Luntz and CPS Director Rob Colvile. Guido also spots the Resolution Foundation’s Torsten Bell will be appearing on a panel as the token left-winger, preparing to beat the drum for higher welfare payments in front of a sea of Thatcherites. The Speccie’s Kate Andrews will be chairing the panel to stop him boring the audience to death. No sign of the country’s most well-known Maggie tribute act yet – did Liz’s invite get lost in the post?
Research from the Centre for Policy Studies makes grim reading for those who want to see Britain as a leading hub of investment. The UK’s tax competitiveness was put at 26th of 38 OECD countries, with corporation tax at a more respectable 10th. However, any silver linings were crashed by the government’s U-turn on corporation tax. The UK has now fallen to a wretched 33rd position, both overall and on corporation tax. The number of OECD countries more welcoming to business than Britain has now trebled…
The figures mean that Britain is ahead of only France and Italy amongst the G7. They’re hardly the enterprising nations Liz “no new taxes” Truss would aspire to. The figures bring home the lunacy of Tory wets’ attack lines. Robert Halfon had called the mini-budget “libertarian jihad”. What would that make the lower-tax US, Canada, Japan and Germany?
