Ashcroft Newark Poll Has Tories 15 Points Clear

Lord Ashcroft reports:

“A by-election two weeks after the European election means that Newark’s electors have enjoyed the prolonged attention of the parties, a privilege for which they must surely be grateful. The evidence from my poll is that the Tories have had the better of an intense ground war and have by no means taken the seat for granted. More than nine out of ten voters say they have heard from the Conservatives locally, including 81 per cent who have had literature through the door; nearly half have received personally addressed mail. Eight in ten say they have heard from UKIP; the party is reported to be slightly more active than Labour in all elements of the local campaign.

The poll was conducted in the week before polling day, and just under a fifth of voters say they may yet change their mind. Despite this, it looks clear that the next MP for Newark will be Robert Jenrick.”

The full data is here.

It’s theirs to lose…

Flapping Tories Threaten Candidates in Last Ditch Newark Bid

shapps

In further proof that the Tories are in a bit of a flap about Newark, the party chairman has just threatened the six hundred wannabe Tory MPs that they will be booted off the approved candidates list if they do not campaign ahead of Thursday’s poll. In an email seen by Guido, Shapps warns:

“As you know, a condition for being on the candidates list is the requirement to campaign in by-elections. Having spent 10 years on the list myself, I know that this expectation is no different from that which will be expected from you as an MP. Candidates who do not assist at by-elections without good reason may put themselves at risk of being removed from the list of approved candidates. … As a possible Parliamentary candidate, the Party is looking to you to show leadership and to support it in this critical by-election.”

They will not be able to throw this much effort at every seat UKIP are targeting this time next year…

Newark Responds to Mass Immigration of Politicians

Enough to feed a People’s Army…

Another Troublesome Peer Leaks Polling Data to Troll Leader

Lord Oakeshott jumped before he was pushed last week, after commissioning unsolicited bad news polling for the  LibDems, but has he set a precedent? Nick Clegg said he thought it ‘totally unacceptable’ that a ‘senior member of the party’ was ‘spending time and money to undermine the fortunes of the party’ and that ‘appropriate measures’ would be taken. Will Dave be so bold in standing up to Tory peer Lord Ashcroft? The billionaire former party donor has been commissioning unhelpful polls left right and centre that suggest a comfortable Labour majority in 2015.

Douglas Alexander MP, Labour’s General Election Strategy, commenting on Ashcroft’s last poll in marginal seats, said gratefully: “Lord Ashcroft’s poll confirms that we are making real progress in seats where we need to do well and that Labour can win next year’s General Election.”

There is an Ashcroft Newark poll out at 4pm…

What ‘appropriate measures’ will the PM be taking with his own troublesome peer?

Helmer’s Italian Parliamentary Aide Francesca in Newark

Yesterday Roger Helmer told the Speccie that his glamorous Italian assistant Francesca Salierno was not working on his by-election campaign in Newark, merely supporting him in his Brussels role as an MEP. That said, the lady in the photo below standing a few feet away from Nigel Farage handing out UKIP leaflets in Newark this afternoon does bear a remarkable likeness to her:

20140531-125210-46330260.jpg

Perhaps Francesca has a twin, or like the Tory SpAds the PM ordered to Newark, she is “on holiday”…

Helmer: Nigel Would Do a Better Job Than Me in Newark

The Speccie have been up to Newark to interview the Tory and UKIP candidates ahead of next week’s by-election. Roger Helmer has admitted that even he doesn’t think he’s the best man for the job:

“Nigel has that enormous box office presence, and I’m sure he would do a better job than I would do. Obviously Nigel is the biggest face and the biggest asset for the party.”

Read all about it here. While dull Tory Robert Jenrick, touted as the “entrepreneur” candidate, confesses to never having run a business, and denies being a carpetbagger. Despite having stood in Newcastle-Under-Lyme in 2010 and attempting to get selected in Croydon before landing Newark…

May Refuses to Be Drawn on Tory Newark Chances

Guido has paid a visit to Newark today to see how the Tory-UKIP bunfight is progressing. The Tory machine is out in force, blue rosetted door knockers are everywhere while the Ukippers dwindle around the town centre as only they do best. Theresa May was expertly dull in her Q&A with the travelling press pack, which is perhaps fitting giving how dull the posh boy Tory candidate Robert Jenrick is. May refused to be drawn when Guido asked her about the consequences of defeat:

[gigya src=”https://abfiles.s3.amazonaws.com/swf/default_player_10.swf” style=”background-color:transparent; display:block; box-shadow:0 0 1px 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.15); min-width:480px; max-width:700px;” flashvars=”image_option=none&imgURL=&link_color=steelblue&mp3Author=WikiGuido&mp3Duration=30119.2&mp3LinkURL=https%3A%2F%2Faudioboo.fm%2Fboos%2F2206479-may&mp3Time=01.20pm+29+May+2014&mp3Title=may&mp3URL=https%3A%2F%2Faudioboo.fm%2Fboos%2F2206479-may.mp3%3Fsource%3Dwordpress&player_theme=light&rootID=boo_player_1&show_title=true&waveimgURL=https%3A%2F%2Fd15mj6e6qmt1na.cloudfront.net%2Fi%2Fw%2F593285″ width=”480″ height=”150″ allowFullScreen=”true” wmode=”transparent”]

They may be coy publicly, but in private the Tories are confident their campaign juggernaut cannot be stopped and their vote will hold up. Though the wandering pack of ginger Scottish Ukippers are taking the market square by force.

Freeeeeeedooommm!

How Tories Stop Slacker MPs From Giving Whips the Slip

Up at the Tory base in Newark, James Landale bring us picture evidence of the roll of honour for campaigning MPs. As Guido revealed in the Sun at the weekend, MPs groaned when told by Deputy Chief Whip Greg Hands that they would have to sign in to prove they had actually turned up to pound the pavements. Crafty slackers slipping off home immediately after signing their names on the whiteboard were then told they would be required to sign in both in the morning and the afternoon. Now they have to jot down their exact arrival and departure times for all to see. Three visits is the minimum expected of them, as you can see by Chris Skidmore’s keenness to show his commitment in the picture above. Hands is emailing out lists of MPs in order of appearances to name and shame the skivers…

People’s Army Pledge 1,000 Troops on the Ground in Newark

“The people’s army is coming”, a senior commander tells Guido this morning. On the back of the Euro Elections, UKIP are turning their attention to Newark and boldly claim they will have 1,000 troops on the ground. Guido understands that every single newly elected MEP is under strict instructions not to head to Brussels until after the vote next Thursday, and every single office holder at every level in the party is expected to invade the Notthinghamshire town.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Cabinet Fall Out Over SpAds Campaigning in Newark

Guido hears there was a bit of a barney at the political cabinet last Tuesday. The PM made it perfectly clear that he expects all of his colleagues to pull their weight in the Newark by-election and one claims that Dave “lost his rag” about taxpayer funded special advisers refusing to campaign.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Tories Face Ruff Treatment in Newark

UKIP might be barking up the wrong tree selecting Roger Helmer in Newark, but it is the Tories who have suffered the first casualty of next month’s by-election. Therese Coffey has been in hospital this afternoon after being bitten by a pugnacious pooch while out canvassing.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Newark By-Election on June 5th

George Young has moved the writ for the Newark by-election.

It’ll be on Thursday June 5th.

Two weeks after the Euros…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

#Nigel4Newark: the Pros and Cons of Running

The UKIP leader says he will “think very hard” about standing in Newark but appeared cautious last night, asking is it the right seat for me?” Guido gives you the pros and cons facing Farage.

Pros

  • CLICK TO ENLARGEAnalysis by the Election Data website (right, click to enlarge) looking at Mosaic demographic data, past voting behaviour and self-reported political affiliation suggests that Farage would be well received in Newark.
[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Mercer By-Election Speculation Growing

Panic stations as the Standards Committee report into Patrick “Guido will be all over this” Mercer is expected very soon – it’s widely expected to be damning after last year’s lobbying sting. If the Committee recommend a long suspension from the House, the MacShane precedent is a resignation and a by-election.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

UKIP Beat Tories to Second in Wythenshawe

The Guy Newsroom is celebrating last night’s by-election result after wagering a four-figure sum on UKIP coming second. The result was never in doubt and Mike “I’m perfectly happy Ed Miliband is leader” Kane is Labour’s new MP.

Labour: 13,261, 55.34% (+11.21%)

UKIP: 4,301, 17.95% (+14.51%)

Conservative: 3,479, 14.52% (-11.03%)

Liberal Democrat: 1,176, 4.91% (-17.44%)

The Lib Dems lost their deposit for the eighth time since 2010…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +

Contrary to Reports, UKIP Still On Course for Second

UKIP are having a tougher time than they expected in the Manchester by-election today, compared to their breakthrough in places like Rotherham. On the back of the latest polls, full expectation management seems to have finally kicked in and the narrative is about being neck and neck for third with the Tories. […] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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