It’s a big test for the Tories today. Voters are heading to the polls for a double by-election in both Wellingborough and Kingswood, two current Tory holds. Labour needs an 18% swing in Wellingborough (Tory since 2005) and 11% in Kingswood (Tory since 2010). A much easier task than their recent by-election wins. If the Tories lose both seats tonight, they’ll have reached their most by-election losses in a single parliament since the Second World War…
Both parties have been managing expectations, with the Tories insisting they will lose both (they’re probably right) and Labour officials saying “winning these seats was always going to be a massive challenge”. Meanwhile, no Tory MPs have been to either seat, though CCHQ are insisting that it’s not an order, they’re just being “realistic”…
Despite Labour’s atrocious week, a quarter of 2019 Tory voters are switching to Labour on the doorstep in Wellingborough. Meanwhile Reform are calling this campaign the “best-received yet” and it’s telling that the Tories are focussing more on Reform than Labour in this seat. Kingswood results are expected between 4-5 am tomorrow and Wellingborough by mid-morning. Rishi may be in double-trouble tomorrow…
The Times’ latest YouGov poll unsurprisingly shows Labour’s lead at 27 percentage points, while Rishi polls lowest since Truss’ resignation. It’s good news for Richard Tice though, as Reform UK are polling at their highest yet, taking a whopping 13%. That is only 7 percentage points away from the Conservatives. Nabbing more votes from those 2019 Tories…
Guido hears that Reform is getting their “best reception yet” at a by-election campaign in Wellingborough ahead of the 15th February, with candidate Ben Habib getting an earful of public fury at the Tories on the doorstep. Their speaking events have 30-50 people in attendance each time…
Habib tells Guido: “It is no surprise that Reform UK is rapidly climbing in the polls. It’s as much to do with the message of Reform UK as it is with the Conservative’s utter collapse.” Another Reform source tells Guido that with a Farage entry the party would “instantly gain at least three points – and the Tories would lose three”. Guido wouldn’t disagree. Whether Farage will make a return to politics is another question…
Sunak is battening down the hatches down for a gruelling day as the by-election for Peter Bone’s Wellingborough seat and Chris Skidmore’s Kingswood seat are confirmed for 15th February. Not the first time they’ve doubled up recently…
Majorities of 18,540 and 11,220 respectively are at threat and could disappear within hours of each other. A Valentine’s Day hangover on the way for Sunak?
The Standards Committee has recommended a 35-day suspension for Tory MP Scott Benton over a sleaze row, likely leading to yet another by-election for Sunak. Benton only has a 3,600 vote majority in Blackpool South, and according to UK Polling Report, Labour candidate Chris Webb is on track to win.
Not such a happy new year for Rishi…
The mood amongst Tory MPs is funereal, and now Peter Bone’s suspension will inevitably trigger yet another by-election, it’s probably only going to get worse. It doesn’t help when the PM himself is publicly resigned to failure already…
Guido can reveal Tamworth’s losing Tory candidate Andy Cooper was rushed through a truncated selection procedure which local Tories claim failed to pick up their concerns about his electability. Other contenders – who are bitter at the process – were put through deep checks the week before selection over the weekend of 9th September. Cooper, by contrast, spent a hurried half-day in London before being placed on the 3-strong central office recommendation list. It is not clear whether psychometric testing, relatively new and much-touted for vetting, was used and the process failed to pick up Cooper’s choice words for benefit claimants in a Facebook post from 2020. Candidates are always complaining about selection processes but the recent run of defeats does seem problematic…
Senior Tamworth Tories say it is “just too early to say” whether they will stick with Cooper or if pre-Pincher candidate Eddie Hughes MP will try for the seat at the general election. He is reportedly eyeing up other seats like Solihull. Incoming boundary changes will boost numbers of Tory voters so it will be a desirable seat despite last night’s result…
