The Reform candidate for the Blackpool South by-election, Mark Butcher, has been absent from events in the last week and even missed the important BBC hustings. Punters have been wondering why as the explosive reason remained unknown…
As it turns out, Mark was busy giving evidence in court concerning his own assassination attempt. In 2020 a convict gunman who had escaped prison (where he was serving a life sentence) seven years previously got arrested again and escaped again, before finally reappearing in Blackpool to try to kill Butcher with an improvised explosive. Police managed to get to him first, finding an bomb and a shotgun. His plan blew up in his face…
Butcher has had to keep tight-lipped while giving vital evidence – the would-be-assassin has now pleaded guilty to four charges, including “possession of an explosive to endanger life“. His sentencing is set for 4th July. Not the most helpful disruption to Reform’s otherwise booming campaign…
Former Tory Scott Benton has pre-empted a recall petition and will resign as an MP. He says in a letter:
“It’s with a heavy heart that I have written to the Chancellor this morning to tender my resignation as your MP. I’d like to thank the hundreds of residents who have sent supportive messages, cards and letters over the last few months and who have urged me to continue and fight the next election.“
By-election in Blackpool South fast approaching…
George Galloway has run away with the Rochdale by-election and won by over 6,000 votes. In the Labour-held seat Azhar Ali came a distant fourth with 7.7% of the vote. A -44% swing – that’s the biggest drop in support for Labour in a by-election since the war…
Independent local candidate David Tully did surprisingly well to get second place with 21% of the vote, ahead of the Tory Paul Ellison, who Guido hears was on holiday a week before the vote. Reform performed poorly with only 6% of the vote going go Simon Danczuk, who ended up in sixth place.
Galloway targeted Starmer in his victory speech:
“Keir Starmer – this is for Gaza. And you will pay a high price, in enabling, encouraging and covering for, the catastrophe presently going on in occupied Palestine in the Gaza strip.”
The combined uselessness of the two main parties has ensured Galloway – using his time tested tactics – is now back in the House of Commons. It’s a good job community tensions aren’t running high…
Turnout was middle of the pack at 39.7%. MPs are waking up to a new housemate….
Starmer swung onto the sofa on BBC Breakfast this morning to celebrate the huge swings in both by-elections. While declaring the “country is crying out for change”, he didn’t hesitate to say there’s more work to do in his party with the obligatory reference to football. Is he referring to eradicating anti-Semitism or trying to make sure LOTO don’t get too complacent…?
He said:
“We are very pleased with these results, these are huge swings to Labour…the country is crying out for change, everybody knows that things aren’t working…they can see the Labour Party has changed. But I would say this, particularly to my team, there is more work to do. There is always more work to do…as every football fan knows you don’t win the league by getting a good win in February.”
As the Tory line goes, he’s no Tony Blair, but that isn’t stopping Labour grabbing seat after seat from the Tories…
Tory staffer turned Chairman Richard Holden has the dreaded by-election morning round this morning. The Tory candidate selection in Wellingborough – Peter Bone’s partner Helen Harrison – is sticking as an issue in the media post mortem. Asked about it up front on GB News he said:
“We’re a democratic organisation and the local people, the local members, there made that selection… it’s their choice at the end of the day, in the final analysis, who is our candidate. The results were disappointing…”
Under Conservative by-election procedures a shortlist of three candidates is forwarded by CCHQ to the local association for a vote. High command’s decision to allow the partner of the scandal-hit MP to be included meant the Bone household could exert a significant influence over the outcome of the member’s ballot. It was very likely she would be selected if included in the CCHQ list…
Wellingborough Tory sources say Labour highlighted the issue relentlessly on the doorstep. One to Bone up on for next time…
Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives were smashed overnight in a double by-election loss further confirming the Tories’ worst fears for the general election this year. Labour gained Kingswood on a 16.4% swing, overturning an 11,220 majority – the seat vacated by Chris Skidmore so he could spend more time with the environment. CCHQ is spinning that Labour’s vote share there is somewhat below expectations – that will make no difference to a jubilant Keir Starmer. The Tory strategy in Kingswood was not to bother to run a full campaign. In an election year it raises big questions about the Tory machine…
Wellingborough is much worse for the Tories, because they did make a quiet effort to hold onto this classic middle England seat, believing it winnable. Bafflingly, CCHQ shortlisted the girlfriend of Peter Bone as the candidate – Bone’s recall over a scandal prompted the poll. Labour overturned their huge majority of more than 18,000 and ended up with a 6436 majority. The deeper story of the night is that Reform polled above 10% in both seats, the LibDems lost their deposit in both…
The Tories are now at an historic low point having suffered more by-election defeats in a single parliament than any point since the 1960s. Co-conspirators will recall that Team Sunak heavily campaigned on the issue of by-election losses under Johnson as a major reason he needed to be replaced – claiming Sunak would win them. This claim – like so many others from project Sunak – lies in tatters. When the PM took the Tory leadership (not before being beaten by Liz Truss the first time), his jubilant team of SW1 insiders crowed via anonymous briefings: “the grown ups are back in charge“. The election looks like a straight fight with Labour while the Tories bleed to Reform. The grown ups may not be in charge for much longer…
