Results from the City of Chester by-election are in and, as with all recent polling, will be causing concern in CCHQ. Labour held the seat on a 61.2% vote share, a majority of 38.4% on the Conservatives’ 22.4%. The worst result for the Conservatives in Chester since 1832…
However, the picture isn’t as resounding as some in Southside would want you to believe. Sensationalised stats obscure the fact that Labour actually underperformed national polls. They achieved a swing of 13%, compared to a national picture of 17%.
Reform UK’s result also somewhat bursts the bubble of their media hype. The party managed 2.7%, just 0.2 higher than in 2019 and far off UKIP’s 8.1% in 2015. Nigel has work to do yet…
Following the resignation of Christian Matheson, SW1 is gearing up for a by-election in the City of Chester constituency. Although there is no date set, the Conservatives have been eager to make a start on finding a candidate. By the sound of it they could do with as much time as possible…
Guido hears that local councillors have been receiving pleading calls from CCHQ as the vacancy remains unfilled. The Tories don’t seem keen to parachute in a candidate from outside and are instead looking for someone more local. The issue is that local candidates aren’t keen; the constituency was won by Labour in 2019 with a 7,000 majority, and on current polling the Tories could frankly place third. Potential candidates would much rather focus on the 2023 Local Elections, which might actually be winnable…
The challenge is further complicated by the mood in the local party, with one council source relaying a lingering sense of resentment after Rishi’s coronation without the say of members. The boundary review doesn’t help City of Chester to as a choice seat for prospective candidates. On the last set of boundary commission proposals it’s set to be carved up. No wonder the candidates aren’t lining up…
They’ve “smashed the blue wall“, they’ve burst “Boris’ bubble“, now they’ve “shown Boris the door“. You know your stunt has flopped when it makes the Ed Stone look like grown up politics…
Boris has also replied to Dowden’s resignation letter, which you can read below:
If you’re just waking up, the Tories have lost both by-elections by significant margins and large swings – huge in the case of Tiverton – and the Tory chairman Oliver Dowden has just quit. His resignation letter spells out he believes the party “cannot carry on with business as usual,” though appears to take full blame. He concludes:
“I want to emphasise that this is a deeply personal decision that I have taken alone. I will, as always, remain loyal to the Conservative Party.”
Guido’s old enough to remember back to 2019, when a triple by-line op-ed from Rishi, Dowden and Robert Jenrick was seen as pivotal in building support for Boris among younger MPs. Now only one remains…
Dowden’s resignation letter in full:
Labour win Wakefield, LibDems win Tiverton and Honiton.
UPDATE: Dowden Resigns
