Labour’s selection meeting for the Gorton and Denton by-election is set for 10:30 a.m. on Saturday, taking place at the Jain Centre in Manchester. In Denton…
After Starmer blocked Andy Burnham from running, the longlist currently stands at five. Four Manchester councillors – Rabnawaz Akbar, Abid Latif Chohan, Julie Reid and Angeliki Stogia – are up against Bury council leader Eamonn O’Brien. Those on the shortlist will then face a hustings at the Jain Centre before Gorton and Denton Labour party members make their final pick…
Local Labour sources are already gaming it out predict a final showdown between Cllr Angeliki Stogia – Labour’s Mid Cheshire candidate at the General Election – and Eamonn O’Brien. Meanwhile, Labour’s attempt to land blows on Reform’s Matt Goodwin has already got off to a rocky start…
Mark your calendars…
Labour’s shambolic performance in last night’s Caerphilly by-election has triggered an inevitable panic amongst the PLP. While ministers like Nick Thomas-Symonds have been putting on brave faces for the media today, behind closed doors the mood is less sanguine. Some MPs are blaming the “rudderless” leadership, and the scale of the defeat confirms their worst fears. This happening on the same day the Treasury briefs the Guardian about a potential manifesto-breaking rise in income tax hasn’t helped. MPs are bracing for things to get even worse come November…
There is some small comfort in Reform’s failure to win, and a hope that the ‘anyone but Farage’ strategy will ultimately help Labour at the next general election. That was certainly Starmer’s pitch at Labour conference. “The problem is we weren’t the ones who benefitted from people voting tactically [in Caerphilly]“, said a Labour source. It’s always a risky move…
All eyes are now on the Senedd elections in May. Polling guru John Curtice had some sobering words for Labour campaigners this morning:
“Labour’s share of the vote was just 11 per cent. It fell by 35 points. That’s the biggest drop that Labour have ever suffered in a by-election in Wales. Labour are in severe trouble in Wales.”
At this point, ‘severe trouble’ is putting it mildly…
Plaid Cymru staff banned Caerphilly by-election winner Lindsay Whittle from speaking to GB News last night… just minutes after he appeared on the channel. And after Whittle thanked GB’s political correspondent Katherine Forster for being the only broadcaster to ask about the late Hefin David…
Moments after interviewing Whittle, Forster revealed Plaid’s press team had decided they now “don’t engage with GB News“:
“He would have come to talk to us again on GB News, but his press team stopped him. They told me, despite the interview that we had done, despite him thanking us, that they do not engage with GB News… Lindsey Whittle obviously was more than happy to do so. But the powers that be implied Plaid Cymru do not want to talk to us.”
Ridiculous…
Reform currently has odds of 1/3 with nearly every major bookmaker (Bet365, Unibet, William Hill) to win the Caerphilly by-election today. Plaid Cymru is second favourite at around 9/4 or 2/1, while Labour’s odds are much longer, now floating at around 25/1. It’s always been a two-horse race, although Reform’s odds have been shortening. Polls close at 10pm, with a result expected in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Always follow the money…
A new Survation poll puts Reform in the lead in the upcoming by-election in Caerphilly. Reform is hoping to turn the formerly Labour Welsh seat turquoise with their candidate Llyr Powell…
The poll puts Reform on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38%, Labour on a measly 12% and the Tories on just 4%. Survation surveyed more than 500 over-16s in Caerphilly between 7th-14th October. Meanwhile Jacob Rees-Mogg has urged his “Conservative friends” to tactically vote for Reform. Polls open next Thursday…
Tom Baldwin, author of Starmer’s hagiography, spoke to Times Radio:
Tom Baldwin: “I think he’d like to do something. He’s very dutiful and driven by service. That’s why he came into politics. I think that’s characterised his time as prime minister. He hasn’t always sought popularity or been good at being popular. But I think he has some of the necessary qualities that we actually do want in a prime minister. That resilience, that relentlessness, that ability to carry the weight and the job really does weigh very heavily on people and he carries that weight very, very well.”
Jo Coburn: “NATO Secretary-General?”
Tom Baldwin: “I think that’s something that he would be interested in. I think it probably requires Andy Burnham’s government to support him in that and these are some of the questions which Andy Burnham has to resolve quite quickly.”