We Send the EU £398 Million a Week

On the day we were meant to leave the EU, new figures published by the ONS show Britain’s gross contributions to the EU have increased to a whopping £398 million-per-week. When excluding VAT & GNI adjustments, this is up by 8.5% from 2017 to 2018 (exclude VAT & GNI adjustments). Boris and Cummings have their new campaign slogan…

Sterling Surging on Deal Reports

Bloomberg is reporting that there is a deal on the table in Brussels. Investment banks Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, both big donors to the campaign to remain, are telling clients we are leaving the EU on October 31 with a deal. JP Morgan recommends closing no-deal hedges. Wall Street and the City reckon Brexit is getting done…

Even gloomy Barnier says it is possible. Sterling is surging against the dollar, it is up 5% against the € this week. Sterling shorts are getting crushed…

Irish Government Says Brexit Happening October 31

If you go onto an Irish government website today this is the splash advert you see. They still seem pretty certain Brexit is happening in 24 days on October 31…

Germany & France Fear Unleashed British Economy

Deutsche Bank’s chief economist, David Folkerts-Landau, not only says that over the medium and long-term a ‘No Deal’ Brexit will make no difference to the British economy, he says an inadequate deal which constrained the British economy would be “a second best solution”. Confirming what many in Downing Street believe, namely that even without the back-stop, May’s regulatory-aligned deal would have detrimentally constrained the dynamic British economy. So-called “regulatory alignment” is an EU imposed constraint on unleashing the British economy to outcompete turgid EU rivals. As the leaked French memo on Friday revealed, Paris fears a resurgent, deregulated dynamic British economy…

EU Exports Down Strongly, UK Exports Up Strongly

Remainers pointing to soft economic numbers in the UK should note that trade between euro-zone member states fell by 6.6% in June compared to the same period last year. That was the fastest such contraction since 2013. Exports from the eurozone to the rest of the world also dropped by 4.7%, the fastest rate since 2016. The EU can’t blame the fall in intra-bloc trade on China…

This is massively under-performing compared to exports of goods and services from the UK which grew 4.5% in June, the most since October 2016. Shipments of goods in particular surged 7.6%, driven by machinery & transport equipment. The euro looks over-valued…

Government Repeals the European Communities Act 1972

As Guido reported he would on Friday, Steven Barclay has “signed the legislation setting in stone the repeal of the European Communities Act 1972. This is a landmark moment in taking back control of our law. It underlines that we are leaving the EU on October 31”. Back in 2012, after thousands of Guido’s readers mandated for him to do so in an innovative crowd-sourcing of legislation, Douglas Carswell presented a bill to Repeal the European Communities Act 1972:

Now Boris has made it happen. What a change from the days when a Tory government actively blocked the repeal. It has taken 7 years, we’re winning co-conspirators, we’re winning…

Counting Down-ing Street

The Press Association has spotted a countdown clock being delivered to Downing Street. The one above was in the Boris campaign HQ.

Both the Campaign HQ and Downing Street countdowns hark back to Vote Leave’s original clock. Seems to be a winning strategy twice over. Third time’s the charm…

CCHQ already got ahead of the curve with their own countdown clock yesterday…

UPDATE: Guido understands that another countdown clock was already delivered to Downing Street yesterday by a former Vote Leave staffer who was challenged to beat the civil service. Not only did they beat them by a day but they also only spent £73, unlike the £500 the civil service somehow managed to spend on it. Another Vote Leave lesson in efficiency for the civil service…

Labour MP: Outside London The Country Wants No Deal

Anti No Deal centrist Labour MP Ruth Smeeth conceded last night on the BBC’s Westminster Hour that her postbag was “75%” filled with pro-No Deal letters. She still opposes the policy but recognises the strength of feeling outside of London, saying the general public “just desperately want” to deliver Brexit. With Labour’s current policy trajectory, seats like hers will be almost certain to be lost to a more pro-Brexit Tory party…

Rich’s Monday Morning View

New Brexit Deadline: Halloween

The result of the EU Council summit late last night was that the EU offered a six month extension until 31st October 2019, the day before a new EU Commission take their seats, and presumably coincidentally, All Hallows’ Eve. As a sop to Macron, who was pushing for a much shorter extension, there will be a review on 30th June. This ‘review’ is entirely symbolic…

The Prime Minister was made to sit outside for the majority of the meeting while the heads of government of the EU27 deliberated for hours. Eventually she agreed what they had agreed. May had previously told Parliament that “As Prime Minister I am not prepared to delay Brexit any further than 30th June.” If Brexit is delayed beyond that point, British MEPs will take their seats in the EU Parliament, and logically May should step down as PM…

Eurosceptics Well Behind in Euro Election Polling

New polling released today shows the Eurosceptic vote would be heavily split if European Elections were to be held, with Labour holding its vote together better than any other party.  More significantly than split votes, the poll found that just 37.8% of leave voters said they were certain to vote, compared to just 46.9% of Remain voters. An almost 10 point enthusiasm gap…

18% of Leave voters on the other hand rated their likelihood to vote at just 1/10, compared to just 6.8% of Remain voters saying the same. Leave voters are demoralised and are more likely to stay home than be enthused to give the establishment another kicking…

The enthusiasm gap means that even in terms of share of the vote, the Eurosceptics fall far behind the Europhiles, who combined make up more than 58% of those who say they will vote. The splitting of the vote makes the complexity of forecasting the outcome a fool’s errand. The challenge for the Brexit Party is immense…

For reference, Guido can provide how the Eurosceptic and Europhile parties fared in 2014. Back then the Eurosceptics achieved 55% of the vote, today’s poll shows that has fallen to 40%. Bullish Eurosceptics should be worried…

Civil Service: Brexit Doesn’t Mean Brexit

The Civil Service seemingly have a deeper aversion to ‘Brexit’ meaning Brexit than might have first appeared. Brexit-watchers will have noticed that official documentation never mentions the word, with officials instead being told to always use the phrase ‘EU Exit.’ One Civil Servant told Guido Brexit has been given the ‘Voldemort’ treatment…

Interestingly they aren’t the first people to avoid the word – Vote Leave also rigorously avoided using the word ‘Brexit’ because it was found to have less positive associations with voters than ‘Leave’. Whatever people want to call it, it doesn’t change the fact that Brexit means Brexit and Leave means Leave…

Brexit Officially Delayed

Brexiteers hoping that defeating the Prime Minister’s deal when it (probably) comes back to Parliament next week will be sorely disappointed that last night the UK Government and the EU agreed that in the likely event the Prime Minister’s deal is defeated a third time, Britain will no longer leave the EU on 29th March, in any circumstances. Now is the time to officially cancel your Brexit parties…

If May’s terrible deal is passed, then Brexit is delayed until 22nd May. If the deal is defeated, the ‘March 29th‘ deadline extends by two weeks to 12th April. This is ample time for Letwin/Cooper/Boles to seize control of business in the Parliament that last week voted against allowing No Deal by 412 votes to 202. Parliament will move against the people’s vote of June 2016. Brexiteers are kidding themselves if they think that this rotten Parliament will let us escape to a WTO Brexit…

No Deal Plans Shoot Down Scaremongering

This morning the UK announced the temporary unilateral measures the UK will apply in the event that the UK leaves the EU with No Deal on 29 March. These come as MPs will be voting on whether or not to reject keeping No Deal on the table this evening…

Despite the original plan to have been to zero rate all the EU’s tariffs, intense special interest lobbying has apparently rolled that back.[…] Read the rest

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Public Procurement Firms Fear GDPR More Than Brexit

Despite endless increasingly hysterical media reports to the contrary, a landmark survey of businesses involved with public sector procurement has found that Brexit is ranked as only the fourth of six options in terms of having an impact on procurement strategy.[…] Read the rest

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Punters Think Brexit Will Be Delayed

Punters on Smarkets are betting that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29, 2019. The implied probability that it won’t happen on time is 80%.* Since May lost the meaningful vote punters and financial traders have been betting that Brexit will be softer and delayed.[…] Read the rest

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OECD Chief Says WTO Brexit Will Be Seamless & Low Cost

OECD chief Jose Angel Gurría is so chillaxed about a no-deal Brexit. Telling Sky’s Ed Conway in Davos, “What’s the worst scenario? A no deal, WTO rules…the whole world is running by WTO rules these days!”[…] Read the rest

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Boris: Let Us Not Continue to Flog this Dead Horse

When this deal is voted down, let us not continue to flog this dead horse.[…] Read the rest

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Bercow Overrules Parliamentary Clerks In Desperate Bid To Stop Brexit

In an unprecedented move, John Bercow has chosen to overrule the advice of his clerks, selecting a Dominic Grieve amendment that forces the Government to hold rolling votes very three days following a defeat of the meaningful vote. Developing…

Bercow is behaving as outrageously as Guido predicted.[…] Read the rest

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Bercow Could Thwart Brexit if the Meaningful Vote is Defeated

Like most of you Guido has tried to put thoughts of Brexit away for Christmas, nevertheless something besides brussels sprouts has been nagging at him, which, whilst the news flow is slow can be explored at length. Labour remainers have of late turned a blind eye to Bercow‘s bullying, mistreatment of staff and gender specific language for one reason, they believe he will be an ally in thwarting Brexit.[…] Read the rest

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