Farage Deprived Tories of 130 Seat Majority

According to election experts John Curtice, Stephen Fisher and Patrick English, the Brexit Party may have significantly cut the scale of Boris’s 2019 victory by standing candidates in the election. By modelling the behaviour of Labour Leavers elsewhere, they argue that in the absence of a Brexit party candidate, 70% would likely have turned to the Tories and 30% would have stuck with Labour, potentially winning the Tories 25 more seats. It is an interesting contention – if you accept the premise. Arguably we saw this in play during the Hartlepool by-election…

Though the Brexit Party may have unintentionally helped Labour, Farage unilaterally chose not to field candidates in seats with incumbent Tory MPs, resulting in Iain Duncan Smith and Dominic Raab clinging on where they otherwise wouldn’t have. Curtice, Fisher and English’s book, The British General Election of 2019, was published yesterday.

mdi-timer 3 November 2021 @ 10:54 3 Nov 2021 @ 10:54 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Brexit Party Name Change to Reform Party Approved

The Electoral Commission has finally got round to approving the Brexit Party’s name change, in time for the local elections. Nigel Farage tells Guido “This is great news and the perfect time in the New Year. The need for Reform is greater than ever as we try to recover from Covid. We have a huge opportunity as a nation post Brexit, but there are many areas of the UK that need real, bold reform: our economy, House of Lords, BBC, civil service, the voting system to mention a few.” Let’s see how the new variant Farage Party spreads…

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Reform Party Has Been in the Works for a Year

The announcement that Nigel Farage will found his third party in three years has come of little surprise. Rumours of a Farage led Reform Party have been openly discussed since last year, including publicly by the Brexit Party leader himself in the final days of the General Election campaign. Farage registered the Reform Party name in 2019…

Following the election, however, by late January Reform Party plans were put on ice. Nigel is a man in need of a cause, and abolishing the House of Lords was simply not sexy enough to justify a launch. Now with around 20% of the country opposing lockdown there is a base to build something new. And it’s clear which voters are being targeted by Nigel’s joint article officially announcing the party in the Telegraph this morning…

Not only will this worry Tory MPs and councillors ahead of the bumper regional, mayoral, and local elections in just six month’s time – this new party will most likely have shot the fox of the yet-to-get-going and similarly named Reclaim Party.

Incidentally, Nigel has been spending a lot of time in the US recently with a former candidate of another populist Reform Party – Donald Trump in 2000. The US Reform Party sank as a movement in the early 2000s, not being able to replicate its relative success under the leadership of eccentric Texas billionaire Ross Perot. Nigel will be hoping his UK variety has more success…

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Mark Reckless to Quit Brexit Party and Join ‘Abolish The Welsh Assembly’ Party

Mark Reckless has been a member of the Welsh Assembly since being elected along with six other UKIP MAs in 2014. He currently serves as Leader of the Brexit Party in the Assembly, yet Guido understands that today Reckless is to jump party yet again, and join the Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party. Currently Abolish has just one member in the Assembly, former UKIP leadership candidate Gareth Bennett…

Currently a Brexit Party member, his defection would crash the Brexit Party ‘group’ on the Welsh Assembly, taking it below the minimum three members needed to access extra cash, staff, and resources. Every group staffer would lose jobs, just before Christmas and during a very uncertain time, perhaps only finding out on TV as Mark announces decision. It’ll be Mark’s fifth affiliation in 6 years…

However, the other Brexit Party Group Members are forming a new independent group with pro-devolution former UKIP AM Caroline Jones re-joining, who previously left the Brexit Party Group when it started its abolish position. Mark’s affiliations since September 2014 have been:

  1. UKIP (14 – 17)
  2. Welsh Conservative Group (17 – April 19)
  3. Independent (April 19 – May 19)
  4. Brexit Party (May 19 – Oct 20)
  5. Abolish (Oct 20 – )

The next election is in May 2021…

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Brexit Party Promise to Abolish Welsh Assembly

The Brexit Party is still polling as high as 10% in Wales ahead of next year’s assembly elections, yet could be on the verge of a bigger political upset thanks to their new staple policy: abolishing the Welsh Assembly in favour of direct elections for the First Minister. The move is a clever one; Wales has always been the most reluctantly devolved part of the UK, with abolition of its legislature already being backed by 25% of Welsh voters – the same figure supporting Welsh independence…

The bold policy has prompted former Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood to compare the Brexit Party to Hitler.

Wood asks her followers, “Would you ever move to another country then become the leader of a political party that seeks to abolish the parliament of that country? Who would do that?”. Just like Plaid’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, who moved from Wales to London, and seeks to abolish the Westminster Parliament of Wales…

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Brexit Party Asks Supporters ‘What Next?’

In the first of a series of “Sunday Surveys“, the Brexit Party has emailed supporters asking their views as to what the party should do next – once, y’know, Brexit is done. Identity crisis incoming…

Farage appears to be scoping the viability of setting up his own independent show after leaving LBC earlier this month. While rumours are swirling that he may be off to join talkRADIO, Guido hears last time the station offered him a slot it was turned down over wage disagreements. Radio Nigel coming soon?

We’re only making plans for Nigel…
mdi-timer 29 June 2020 @ 12:03 29 Jun 2020 @ 12:03 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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