Scottish MPs are preoccupied this morning after learning the fate of their jobs, thanks to the Scottish boundary review publication. The initial draft of Scotland’s new boundaries, due to be implemented in 2023, confirms a cut of two seats overall:

• The two seats that are due to be scrapped come from Glasgow and the North East.
• All constituencies will be redrawn bar nine: Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, Central Ayrshire, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh South West, Kilmarnock and Loudoun, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran, Stirling, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine. A further two constituencies are preserved in legislation: Na h-Eileanan an Iar, and Orkney and Shetland.
• Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross is in for a bumpy ride as his Moray constituency gets split in two, absorbed by a new Gordon and Moray South seat.
• The new proposed ‘Highland North’ seat is 12,781 square kilometers – larger than both Qatar and Yorkshire.
• The island seats of Na h-Eileanan an Iar, and Orkney and Shetland are protected by law and will remain unchanged.

Unsurprisingly, the SNP aren’t happy. Kirsten Oswald claimed the boundary changes will “further reduce Scotland’s representation at Westminster”. In far more frank terms, Pete Wishart called it a “dog’s breakfast”…

After English MPs learnt their boundary review fate back in June, today it’s been the turn of Welsh MPs. We already knew the proposals would be drastic after they’d previously announced the country would be facing the largest constituency cut of eight seats. While it’ll be up to more seasoned psephologists to decode which party will lose out most, it’s clear Tory MPs like Stephen Crabb, Simon Baynes, Rob Roberts and Jamie Wallis face big changes. Crabb especially, given his Preseli Pembrokeshire gets completely split in two.

Just Scotland and Northern Ireland left.

UPDATE: For those wondering the names of the new constituencies:

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While MPs fret over the implications of the boundary review, some Tory MPs are prematurely celebrating the potential loss of one of their colleagues. Dr Neil Hudson – MP for Penrith and the Border.

Since his election in 2019, he’s done a lot to infuriate his supposed comrades on the Tory Benches – much like his predecessor, Rory Stewart. He made a major misstep in June 2020 during the animal welfare Brexit row, during which he wrote a piece for the Mail on Sunday entitled, “Why I rebelled against the Tory whip to protect animal welfare – even if it makes Brexit trade talks more complex”. The piece’s headline told readers it had been written “by the Commons’ only vet” – something he apparently mentions in almost every conversation.

In the article, Hudson falsely implied the Tory MPs who didn’t rebel were happy to see animal welfare undermined by Brexit – an accusation that gave momentum to the noisy remainers already filling MPs’ postbags with their grievances. Some merely told Guido he “wasn’t a team player” given how unhelpful it was “to marginal colleagues.” His then–registering of a £900 payment for the piece had him subsequently labelled as a “Judas” by more than one colleague…

According to The Public Whip, Hudson is also the most rebellious of the 2019 intake – excluding Jason McCartney who previously served from 2010-17 – at 3.6% of all votes since his election.

Under the new boundary reform proposals, Dr. Neil’s seat is set to be torn up, in a redrawing that also threaten’s Tim Farron’s seat. While CCHQ believes the ‘new’ seat to still show a Tory majority, a battle lies ahead between Farron and Hudson, and Guido suspects a good many Tory MPs may not be backing their Conservative colleague in that fight. In the prematurely hopeful words of one senior Tory colleague, “he won’t be missed”…

While the rest of the world focuses on battling the pandemic, or foreign aid, MPs are mainly concerned with one issue today: their jobs. The Boundary Commission will, late tonight, publish their 2023 boundary review, which will redraw almost every constituency in the UK. While the South East IS set to gain a number of seats, the North East, North West and Midlands face a cut of six in total. Today MPs have been invited to learn the fate of their areas, under embargo:

• In the North East, it sounds like the expected two-seat-cull will happen up around the Sunderland, Blyth Valley and Northumberland area, rather than the Durham/Teesside area.
• In the North West, Cumbria has to lose a seat and this is set to result in a new seat crossing the Cumbria/Lancashire boundary. Defence secretary Ben Wallace’s seat in Preston is set to be massively squeezed
• In the West Midlands, co-conspirators were eager to see whether Jess Phillips, or even Zarah Sultana, may be at threat of losing her seat. Sadly it looks like Zarah’s wafer-thin majority isn’t going anywhere. Most of the changes are set to take place in the Black Country.

The picture will emerge more clearly in the next few hours. Guido hears many MPs are scared of talking to their colleagues about the proposals, fearing they accidentally brag that their seat is fine in front of someone set to lose theirs. Welsh and Scottish MPs are particularly relaxed – their proposals aren’t being published until September…

The Boundary Commission for England (BCE) has announced the start of its review today – the first changes to constituency boundaries in over 10 years. As Guido first revealed in January, the government will keep the number of MPs to 650, abandoning David Cameron’s plan to reduce the number to 600. As expected, the review revealed that the North will lose a number of seats. The North East and North West will drop two seats respectively, whilst the Yorkshire and the Humber area will see no change. The West Midlands will also lose two seats potentially threatening Jess Philips’ constituency in Birmingham, Yardley and Zarah Sultana’s constituency in Coventry South.

The South will see a huge increase in its seat share, with the South East acquiring 7 seats, and the South West 3 seats. London will also be increasing its seat share by 2, Eastern by 3 and the East Midlands by 1. Due to the huge Tory gains throughout the red wall in the 2019 General Election, this boundary reform may not benefit the Tories as much as people previously expected. Instead the LibDems, who typically do well in London and the South, may end up benefiting the most from this boundary review… 

As Guido originally revealed this time last year, the 2023 boundary review ahead of the next election is to abandon Cameron’s plan to reduce seats from 650 to 600. The review formally launched this morning with the Commission revealing their plans to give England 10 (1.8%) new seats ahead of the 2024 election. Northern Ireland will remain the same with 18 and Scotland loses just 2 (3.3%), however Wales will see a massive reduction of 20%, from 40 seats to just 32 as the policy aims to rebalance the population discrepancies across the UK’s seats – with new lower and upper limits of 69,724 and 77,062 voters. Unlike the previous attempt at boundary reform, MPs won’t get a veto this time…