Corbyn’s Constituency Abolished

The Boundary Commission has released its final recommendations for cutting down the number of Parliamentary constituencies from 650 to 600 and it’s bad news for the Absolute Boy with his Islington North constituency getting the chop. Will Comrades Thornberry, Abbott or Starmer make way for the dear leader by letting him take one of their neighbouring seats?

UPDATE: Boris Johnson is another big hitter who will be feeling a little nervous with his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat set to be redrawn to include the more Labour-leaning area of Northolt. Boris currently sits on a modest majority of 5,034, he will be sitting less comfortably after this…

Aside from MPs set to lose their seats, the change which seems to have caused the most consternation is the Bideford, Bude and Launceston seat which combines part of North Cornwall with Devon, creating a controversial “Devonwall” seat. St Austell MP Steve Double has already tweeted out his opposition to the change. Many more concerns like this and the Government will rapidly find itself short of a majority to push the changes through…

Boundary Review Expected Next Month

Guido hears that the Boundary Commission will be publishing their ‘Final Recommendations’ on September 5, now that the DUP have seemingly dropped their major objections, accepting that downsizing the Northern Irish contingent of constituencies was probably worth it to help keep Corbyn away from Number 10. The boundary review began in 2011…

Guido reckons that the Commission’s aim of equalising the size of seats to within 5% of a target number will boost the Tories by some 20 seats by removing anomalies that favour Labour. Guido thinks it cost even more incumbent Labour MPs their seats. Corbynistas won’t be able to resist the temptation to push for sweeping deselections, justified by even very small adjustments to boundaries. Momentum have already scented first blood with the threatened removal of Kate Hoey and Frank Field…

Tories Optimistic They Have Numbers For Boundaries Vote

Guido hears Number 10 are increasingly optimistic that they have the numbers to proceed with boundary reforms which would cut the number of MPs to 600 and reduce the electoral bias towards Labour. The DUP have softened their opposition to the proposals, with their MPs apparently convinced they won’t lose their seats and may even be able to remove independent Sylvia Hermon. Nigel Dodds is less keen and still fears the reforms could reduce unionist representation. The DUP’s dilemma has been whether to back boundary reform, reduce Corbyn’s chances of becoming PM but risk weakening their position in Northern Ireland, or oppose it and risk handing two Irish republicans the keys to Number 10 and 11. The Tories think a new map presented in January should be enough to convince the DUP to get onside. As one minister puts it: “The fate of the next Prime Minister relies on Nigel Dodds’ vanity…”

Know When Your Ghose is Cooked

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The Electoral Reform Society’s Katie Ghose is all over the papers this morning claiming to be “independent” and complaining that the boundary changes are terribly unfair. Nothing to do with fewer seats meaning the serial carpetbagger is even less likely to make it to parliament. Ghastly Ghose has previously put herself forward as a Labour candidate in Stoke on Trent North, Brighton Kemptown, Grimsby and York. The parachuting former aide to Greville Janner has alas never been selected. Given she so desperately wants to be an MP, is Katie really the best “independent” voice to comment on boundary reforms?

MPs Facing a Fight For Their Seat

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Here Guido lists the MPs who face a fight on their hands after the Boundary Review, either because their seat is being abolished, becoming marginal, or the changes mean they will have to battle it out with another MP. Note the Labour moderates who are now ripe for deselection. This is not an exhaustive list, Guido will be updating throughout the day.

Islington North – Jeremy Corbyn
Hackney North and Stoke Newington – Diane Abbott
Tatton – George Osborne
Uxbridge and South Ruislip – Boris Johnson
Witham – Priti Patel
Maldon – John Whittingdale
Haltemprice and Howden – David Davis
Putney – Justine Greening
Chelsea and Fulham – Greg Hands
Battersea – Jane Ellison
Enfield Southgate – David Burrowes
Sheffield Hallam – Nick Clegg
Pontypridd – Owen Smith
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford – Yvette Cooper
Stoke on Trent Central – Tristram Hunt
Stoke on Trent North – Ruth Smeeth
Stoke on Trent South – Rob Flello
Dudley North – Ian Austin
Barrow and Furness – John Woodcock
Copeland – Jamie Reed
Hampstead and Kilburn – Tulip Siddiq
Nottingham East – Chris Leslie
Streatham – Chuka Umunna
Brighton Pavilion – Caroline Lucas
Norwich South – Clive Lewis
Islington South – Emily Thornberry
Vauxhall – Kate Hoey
Camberwell and Peckham – Harriet Harman
Wansbeck – Ian Lavery
Great Grimsby – Melanie Onn
Workington – Sue Hayman
Heywood & Middleton – Liz McInnes
Liverpool Walton – Steve Rotheram
Wirral South – Alison McGovern
Cynon Valley – Ann Clwyd
Ashton-under-Lyne – Angela Rayner
Stalybridge and Hyde – Jonathan Reynolds
Kensington – Victoria Borwick
Morley and Outwood – Andrea Jenkyns
Warwick and Leamington – Chris White
Cities of London and Westminster – Mark Field
Camborne and Redruth – George Eustice
Truro and Falmouth – Sarah Newton
Montgomeryshire – Glyn Davies
Ribble Valley – Nigel Evans
Pendle – Andrew Stephenson
North Herefordshire – Bill Wiggin
Ludlow – Philip Dunne
Brigg and Goole – Andrew Percy
Preseli Pembrokeshire – Stephen Crabb
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire – Simon Hart
Cardiff South and Penarth – Stephen Doughty
Cardiff Central – Jo Stevens
Aberavon – Stephen Kinnock
Clwyd South – Susan Elan Jones
Arfon – Hywel Williams
Ynos Mon – Albert Owen
Islwyn – Chris Evans
Caerphilly – Wayne David
Vale of Glamorgan – Alun Cairns
Gower – Byron Davies
Swansea West – Geraint Davies
Newport East – Jess Morden
Newport West – Paul Flynn
Ceredigion – Mark Fraser Williams
Erith and Thamesmead – Teresa Pearce
Rushcliffe – Ken Clarke (standing down anyway)

Send further names to team@order-order.com.

Boundary Review Puts Tory Outers Under Pressure

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Essex is the most Eurosceptic region of the country in terms of Tory MPs – according to Guido’s referendum list there are 12 Essex MPs who will be backing Brexit. Coincidentally, Essex is expected to be a major loser in the forthcoming boundary review. Analysis in today’s Times warns that Priti Patel, Whitto and Bernard Jenkin may have to fight over two seats.

Also heavily targeted in the boundary review is the South West, with seats in Cornwall and Devon expected to be merged. Again, this is one of the places you are most likely to find a Leave Tory MP. Declared Brexiteers here include Steve Double, George Eustice, Scott Mann, Sheryll Murray, Derek Thomas, Anne Marie Morris, Geoffrey Cox, and Sarah Wollaston.

Bully row Outer Lucy Allan could also come under pressure in Telford, with the West Midlands set to lose six seats from their current total of 59. Nadhim Zahawi, who sensationally switched from In to Out, is another West Midlands MP.

The greater-than-ever-before need to impress Eurosceptic selection panels will be playing on the minds of Tory MPs under threat…

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Quote of the Day

Responding to Corbyn’s statement that the US should have arrested ISIS leader, al-Baghdadi, John Mann bluntly tweeted:

Baghdadi blew himself up with a suicide belt. An arrest might have been slightly difficult in these circumstances.”

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