Minister for the Constitution, Chloe Smith, will later today introduce the long-overdue Parliamentary Constituencies Bill to the Commons, which – with an 80 seat majority – will finally see the redrawing of constituency boundaries that have remained the same for a decade. As Guido first revealed in January, the Government will be keeping the number of MPs at 650 however, abandoning David Cameron’s plans to reduce the number to 600. Despite some evidence suggesting the Tories would have seen a 30 seat-larger majority in 2019 had the reforms already been in place, Smith is keen to emphasize this isn’t about furthering a political agenda…
MPs will be breathing a sigh of relief later on as Guido can reveal a Written Ministerial Statement will confirm the heavily a rumoured and lobbied for change of remit for the Boundary Commission. As Guido pointed to in January, the Government has now officially decided to maintain the number of seats in the Commons at 650, rather than Cameron’s 2010 promise of reducing the number to 600. The statement will justify the retention of 50 extra seats on the basis of the 73 UK MEPs losing theirs, and an alleged increased workload on MPs. This, of course, dubiously rests on the assumption that the work MEPs did was consequential…
UPDATE: The statement has now been published:
“This is a change in policy from the position previously legislated for under the Coalition Government. Since that policy was established in the Coalition Agreement, the United Kingdom has now left the European Union. The UK Parliament will have a greater workload now we are taking back control and regaining our political and economic independence. It is therefore sensible for the number of parliamentary constituencies to remain at 650.”
The Boundary Commission has released its final recommendations for cutting down the number of Parliamentary constituencies from 650 to 600 and it’s bad news for the Absolute Boy with his Islington North constituency getting the chop. Will Comrades Thornberry, Abbott or Starmer make way for the dear leader by letting him take one of their neighbouring seats?
UPDATE: Boris Johnson is another big hitter who will be feeling a little nervous with his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat set to be redrawn to include the more Labour-leaning area of Northolt. Boris currently sits on a modest majority of 5,034, he will be sitting less comfortably after this…
Aside from MPs set to lose their seats, the change which seems to have caused the most consternation is the Bideford, Bude and Launceston seat which combines part of North Cornwall with Devon, creating a controversial “Devonwall” seat. St Austell MP Steve Double has already tweeted out his opposition to the change. Many more concerns like this and the Government will rapidly find itself short of a majority to push the changes through…
Guido hears that the Boundary Commission will be publishing their ‘Final Recommendations’ on September 5, now that the DUP have seemingly dropped their major objections, accepting that downsizing the Northern Irish contingent of constituencies was probably worth it to help keep Corbyn away from Number 10. The boundary review began in 2011…
Guido reckons that the Commission’s aim of equalising the size of seats to within 5% of a target number will boost the Tories by some 20 seats by removing anomalies that favour Labour. Guido thinks it cost even more incumbent Labour MPs their seats. Corbynistas won’t be able to resist the temptation to push for sweeping deselections, justified by even very small adjustments to boundaries. Momentum have already scented first blood with the threatened removal of Kate Hoey and Frank Field…
Guido hears Number 10 are increasingly optimistic that they have the numbers to proceed with boundary reforms which would cut the number of MPs to 600 and reduce the electoral bias towards Labour. The DUP have softened their opposition to the proposals, with their MPs apparently convinced they won’t lose their seats and may even be able to remove independent Sylvia Hermon. Nigel Dodds is less keen and still fears the reforms could reduce unionist representation. The DUP’s dilemma has been whether to back boundary reform, reduce Corbyn’s chances of becoming PM but risk weakening their position in Northern Ireland, or oppose it and risk handing two Irish republicans the keys to Number 10 and 11. The Tories think a new map presented in January should be enough to convince the DUP to get onside. As one minister puts it: “The fate of the next Prime Minister relies on Nigel Dodds’ vanity…”
The Electoral Reform Society’s Katie Ghose is all over the papers this morning claiming to be “independent” and complaining that the boundary changes are terribly unfair. Nothing to do with fewer seats meaning the serial carpetbagger is even less likely to make it to parliament. Ghastly Ghose has previously put herself forward as a Labour candidate in Stoke on Trent North, Brighton Kemptown, Grimsby and York. The parachuting former aide to Greville Janner has alas never been selected. Given she so desperately wants to be an MP, is Katie really the best “independent” voice to comment on boundary reforms?
