New public sector borrowing figures from the ONS make grim reading ahead of the budget. It’s at the third-highest September level since records began and at its highest since the pandemic…

The state has borrowed £6.7 billion more than the OBR forecast so far this financial year, and £1.2 billion more than a year ago this month. The ONS says spending is to blame despite record revenue from growth-killing taxes:

“While tax revenue increased, this was outweighed by increased spending, partly due to higher debt interest and public sector pay rises.”

Chief Treasury Secretary Darren Jones has issued the old line blaming the Tories for having “no plan to fund pay deals for millions of public sector workers. Strikes cost at least £3bn last year, so it was the right thing to do to end those damaging disputes.” At this rate Reeves might have to invent yet another black hole before the budget…

King in the North Andy Burnham is keeping up his campaign against the Labour leadership’s supposed commitment to fiscal rules. As rumours abound that Reeves is planning to remove large spending projects from the government’s balance sheet to pretend they aren’t costs, it looks like he’s might get his wish…

Burnham said on the Today Programme he was glad to hear of a return to Labour’s high-borrowing strategy:

“I am very encouraged by those by those kind of noises that we’re we’re hearing, and if you remember that phrase “borrow to invest,” it was a favorite of Gordon Brown’s back in the day – because it makes sense… that’s how the Treasury needs to see investment.”

The mayor went on to press for a new land value tax “to capture some of that uplift that comes from the infrastructure.” Reeves has ruled out some tax rises – she can always make new ones…

The government borrowed £2.9 billion more than expected last month, a blow to Labour’s Rachel Reeves as she prepares her first budget. According to the Office for National Statistics, the government borrowed £14.5 billion in June, £3.2 billion less than last year, though well above the £11.6 billion the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted. No surprise that the quango got it wrong again…

Meanwhile, the government has borrowed £49.8 billion since the fiscal year began. Though the UK is at the top of the G7 growth table for the first quarter (GDP growth was 0.7%), the debt-to-GDP ratio hit 99.5% in June. Labour are inclined to raise taxes, overshooting OBR forecasts will only spur them on…

New figures from the Office for National Statistics this morning show that the debt ratio in May has been pushed up from 98.1% to 99.8%, the highest since records began in 1993. Borrowing in the financial year-to-May 2024 was £33.5 billion, the fourth highest since records began – public sector debt is at its highest level since 1961. So much for that pledge…

Borrowing is, however, below OBR forecasts thanks to debt servicing costs on government bonds falling from £9.2 billion in April to £8 billion last month. A stable deathtrap for any prospective Chancellor refusing to cut spending. That is, all of them…

The Public Accounts Committee has published a new report into government borrowing this morning which doesn’t paint a rosy picture. The report slams the Treasury for its inability to measure whether borrowing, which has pushed net debt to 97% of GDP, has value for money:

“The Treasury recognises that there is no single quantitative metric to measure its performance and instead relies on more qualitative measures, such as monitoring market demand. But this means it is impossible to know whether it is securing value for money from its approach.”

With taxpayers “on the hook for more debt repayments and interest costs” the Treasury claims it would be “unfair” to be produce a metric for its borrowing performance, instead claiming numerous measures like whether debt is being sold in the “right areas” are taken into account. Meanwhile, the Committee says with high staff turnover the Treasury “faces challenges in maintaining the appropriate expertise” to manage debt. More unaccountable borrowing is more tax deferred…

New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that borrowing hit £7.8 billion in December last year. That’s well below the forecast £14 billion…

Debt interest payable of £4 billion in was the lowest December figure since 2020 while borrowing in the financial year-to-December was £11 billion higher than the year before at £119 billion and therefore the fourth-highest on record. That said, continued undershoots of forecasts will give Hunt’s team more confidence for tax cuts in March…