Here we go again. Starmer is poised to declare Labour’s abandonment of the £28 billion a year figure, while maintaining allegiance to the “Green Prosperity Plan”. The onslaught from CCHQ seems to have hit its mark prematurely…

Just on Tuesday, Starmer firmly stood by the hefty £28 billion sum, saying that the number was “desperately needed” to achieve his goals. Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves refused ten times to mention the figure when asked. It seems the Shadow Chancellor may be the one wearing the trousers. Despite Starmer’s latest U-turn, CCHQ found a potent line of attack against the proposals. Now that Labour has severed ties with the figure, they will find it more difficult to use in the election campaign. Labour will hope that they can defuse the issue now…

Internal divides aren’t just a Tory trait. Whether or not to stick to the £28 billion a year figure on their green spending plan seems to be a topic of heated debate in the Shadow Cabinet – Rachel Reeves refused to even mention the number last week while Keir Starmer yesterday committed to the the figure on Times Radio. On Politics Live today, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott asked Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson whose team she was on, Rachel Reeves’ or Starmer’s. Bridget made a bit of a Freudian slip: “Rache…uh…Laura..uh…honestly”. Whoops…

Another week, another way that Labour attempts to “clarify” their position on the £28 billion black hole. Keir Starmer has once again brought the figure to the forefront, despite his Shadow Chancellor refusing to mention the number just last week. In an interview with Times Radio’s Kate McCann, he refuted claims of “scaling back” the pledge, asserting that the £28 billion is “desperately needed” for green investment. As Guido said when LOTO first came up with the commitment, whatever the details, a vast amount of borrowing will be necessary to fund it…

Starmer was clearly in a bold mood during the interview, as he went on to compare himself to Arteta, the Arsenal football manager. An interesting choice considering Arsenal hasn’t won the Premier League since Arteta took over. Will it be Arteta in or Arteta out…

More fantastic clarity over Labour’s £28 billion spending pledge this morning as Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq argues with Nick Ferrari about whether the pledge is a commitment or an ambition. Ferrari likened the fiasco to “saying to your partner: I’ll marry you if you win the lottery. Life doesn’t work like that“. Guido’s not sure what the analogy Tulip was reaching for here means:

“It is a commitment depending on the fact it abides by our fiscal rules… everything has to depend on external circumstances… it’s like saying to your partner ‘I will marry you’ but if I suddenly find out you murdered a two year old last year, you might not want to… I think that’s what we are saying. If there’s a global financial crisis we need to review our commitments that that time“.

Sorry?

Labour has published a report today on business relations called “A New Partnership” in the run up to its mega-corporate schmooze event on Thursday. Along with the usual waffle on “ending the political spin cycle” the report concludes:

“Business hates uncertainty. The Shadow Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Jonathan Reynolds MP and the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves MP, have prioritised “clarity”, “certainty”, “transparency”, and “stability” in Labour’s relationship with business. This is very welcome“.

Businesses do hate uncertainty. Guido wonders what they’ll make of the Labour Party’s clarity on its flagship spending policy to reach its “2030 Clean Power Promise“, that last June Starmer said he was “doubling down” on Labour’s £28 billion spending spree. The so-called clarity in just this month is comical:

• 9^th February 2023 – Labour says: “We will invest £28 billion per year to tackle the climate emergency through our green prosperity plan“.
• 19^th June 2023 – Starmer says he is “doubling down” on Labour’s £28 billion spending spree.
• 7^th January 2024 – Starmer says the country “needs” investment and Labour will “put in” £28 billion to reach their clean power by 2030 target.
• 19^th January – The Sun reports that Keir Starmer is “ditching” his £28 billion-a-year spending spree, according to “Labour insiders“.
• 19^th January – Hours later, a Labour source dismissed the claims as “complete nonsense“.
• 20^th January – Sadiq Khan says Labour will only “hopefully” reach £28 billion but that “depends how quickly we can grow the economy“.
• 20^th January, David Lammy says Labour “remain committed” to the £28 billion-a-year spending spree but can’t say how it would be funded.
• 21^st January- Stephen Kinnock says Labour are “committed to ramping up to £28 billion in the second half of the first term of a Labour government“.
• 28^th January – Starmer refuses to commit to £28 billion in interview with the Daily Mail.
• 28^th January – Ed Miliband lays out spending commitments that make up the £28 billion figure and pledges to them.
• 28^th January – The Times reported that Labour’s £28 billion figure will be cut back and may not even make it into Labour’s manifesto.
• 28^th January – Jonathan Reynolds says Labour will spend £28 billion every year, then says it’s only an ambition.
• 28^th January – Chris Bryant says Labour’s £28 billion of spending “needs” to survive to pay for Labour’s energy plans.
• 28^th January – Lord Kinnock says “It might now be 26, it might be 20“.
• Yesterday – the CBI refers to Labour’s £28 billion spending spree as “core” to Labour’s “economic strategy“.
• Last night – Peston reports Labour will ditch their £28 billion spending spree.
• Last night – Rachel Reeves refused to commit to Labour’s £28 billion spending spree, or outline how it would be funded.

Labour continues to talk about specific green spending commitments that form part of the £28 billion – they can’t have it both ways. Nevertheless Guido reckons they will officially abandon the £28 billion figure in the next few months, whilst still sticking with the individual spending pledges.

Another week, and more squirming from Labour over their £28 billion a year green spending black hole. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves was on LBC last night. While pledging to stick to the green plan, Reeves refused to acknowledge the £28 billion figure, only repeating the line that it would be subject to Labour’s “fiscal rules”. Meanwhile, it has been heavily trailed that Labour will drop the spending commitment altogether…

If Labour do formally ditch the £28 billion number, that’s not to say they won’t turn on the borrowing taps. Scrapping the figure but keeping the policy means they will have an unknown spending commitment – the Tories will say that their sums therefore do not add up. The policy would still require mass spending. That said, ditching the figure this early before the campaign does rob the Tories of what appears to be their main (or only) current attack line. Both LOTO and the Tories are spinning this one to death…