The “black hole” was met with raised eyebrows when it was first “discovered” in a rapid audit by Treasury officials under Reeves’ instruction at the end of July. Public sector pay rises granted by the government along with “overspend on certain projects” and inflation led the Treasury to conjure a figure of £22 billion. That was then reduced to £16.4 billion with measures including the winter fuel benefit cut…

Labour mentioned the £22 billion figure whenever they wanted to attack the previous government. Now, in one briefing of Reeves’ words to the Cabinet, she is said to be expanding the black hole to something over £25 billion, which was later upgraded to £40 billion. That’s because £22 billion would only keep services “standing still” and the Chancellor wants to increase headroom at the beginning of this parliament in case there are other “economic shocks.” Another briefing of the same Cabinet meeting says that the £22 billion black hole will be made a permanent fixture of the next five years. Despite the fact that the Treasury said it had already been reduced to £16 billion, Reeves is arbitrarily giving herself £22 billion every year to crow about…

That means hacks have written up another black hole, this time of £100 billion. The total number of different black hole figures under Labour so far has, therefore, reached five. Every number Labour comes up with is pure politics and shouldn’t be interpreted as anything else…

Labour’s ceaseless Britain-bashing and their relentless “doom and gloom” script have pushed the panic button on the economy. Talk of a “painful” budget has businesses running for cover. A staggering 71% surge in mergers and acquisitions—business owners are frantically selling up ahead of Labour’s capital gains tax raid. Start-ups are being strangled by Labour’s crackdown on innovation tax credits. And now 9,500 millionaires set to flee the UK in 2024…

The drip-feed of pessimism from Labour’s economic doomsayers is doing its damage. Investors are voting with their feet, with £666 million drained from UK-focused funds in September alone. Equity income funds shed £416 million. Edward Glyn, head of global markets at Calastone, said:

“The new government’s rather pessimistic commentary about the UK economy appears to have put a stop to the nascent revival in interest in domestic equities that we first detected in trading data in July. UK-focused funds seem to be off the menu for investors for the time being.”

Rachel Reeves might be betting on pulling an “Osborne”—permanently saddling the opposition with the tag of economic incompetence — though it’s backfiring fast. Labour can’t just blame the other lot without bringing solutions to the table. The clever-sounding spin from Labourites—set low expectations of a tax-heavy budget only to swoop in with a “not quite as bad” reveal—has completely flopped. Businesses are bolting. Labour’s doom-loop of self-fulfilling prophecies is driving the very decline they keep talking about…

Sir Keir Starmer’s grand plan to raid the pockets of non-doms in a tax crackdown could leave a gaping £1 billion hole in funding earmarked for schools and hospitals, according to The Guardian. Treasury officials fear the punitive tax will raise no money at all, driving away the wealthy and draining the coffers…

It’s another example of Reeves and her cronies not understanding that tax hikes only send the rich packing their bags and take their fortunes elsewhere. The plans, initially imposed by the Tories, were flawed from the start.  The OBR initially reckoned scrapping the non-dom tax loophole could rake in £3.2 billion a year, with Labour planning to spend £1 billion of the cash it would supposedly raise on public services. Though the figure was  “highly uncertain” from the start. Labour continuing to create their own ‘black hole’…

Tory conference passes have been hitting (fewer) doorsteps and attendees might have spotted that their lanyard is bare. No branding, just plain black…

This will be the first conference in years without a lanyard sponsor adorning every conference-goer. Last year’s sponsor PoliMonitor switched to the LibDems and the Tories have failed to organise a replacement. It’s the most expensive advert you can buy for conference – the Tories’ funding black hole is getting wider…

The party is also taking the unusual step to publicly advertise the main conference hotel inside the secure zones, which still has numerous rooms available mere days before it kicks off. A single bedroom at the Hyatt Regency will set a non-member back by £2,675. Support a CCHQ employee today…

Guido’s not the only one fed up of hearing the constant cry of the so-called ‘black hole’ from Labour. Former Chief Economist at the Bank of England Andy Haldane warned Reeves’ ominous black hole chat generates “fear” amongst businesses, investors and consumers. He told Sky News last night:

“That’s generated fear and foreboding, an uncertainty among consumers among businesses among investors…which is unfortunate because just after the election there was a sense of refresh, a sense of renewal a confidence about the UK both domestically and internationally.”

For a party claiming to be one of business and growth, Reeves should know that showing weakness and uncertainty doesn’t exactly fuel a position of strength…

Starmer has been gearing the nation up today for a “painful” budget this October, once again dodging the question of wealth taxes, particularly a capital gains tax raid. He insists that “broader shoulders should bear the heaviest burdens” to fill the so-called black hole. Meanwhile, businesses and landlords are scrambling to sell up to avoid the looming raid, and green energy investors are hitting pause on their plans, spooked by the prospect of Reeves’ Autumn Statement on the eve of Halloween…

With capital gains tax raids in sight, private investors are getting cold feet. NatPower UK’s CEO, who promised to pump £10 billion into UK green energy, says investors are stalling due to the expected tax hikes:

“I’m talking with investors and they are definitely considering and waiting for decisions to be made so that they can make their own decisions. For infrastructure investors in the energy transition, it is the capital gains tax that is particularly relevant.”

Labour’s been pushing the narrative that their costly GB Energy plan will be bankrolled by the private sector, sparing taxpayers the cheque to reach Net Zero, though as Guido’s flagged before, the numbers don’t add up. Labour cutting their nose despite their face on capital gains tax could force them into yet another policy U-turn. If private investors bolt, “working people” will be left footing the bill to meet Net Zero targets—or more likely, the 2030 goal will be quietly shelved. The latter might be the better option…