Never let it be said that Guido doesn’t keep his word. His bet against Trump had to be settled. Lunch was no PFL – only a two bottler of a reasonable premier grand cru – Guido had to catch a flight and Nigel is doing Question Time tonight. In the circumstances Nige’ picked up the tab…

Anthony Browne of the British Bankers Association is a deservedly well paid lobbyist on behalf the industry. He earned his crust this weekend by getting the Observer’s front page splash:

The lurid claim made in the first line is that

“Britain’s biggest banks are preparing to relocate out of the UK in the first few months of 2017 amid growing fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to get out before Christmas.”

This echoes the claims made during the referendum campaign – claims which included that Britain will go into immediate recession this year if we dared to vote to leave the EU. Guido tried to bet anyone of the 71% of City economists who made that claim £1,000 that there would be no recession in 2016. Not one economist him up on the wager. So Guido’s new offer is to Anthony: £1000 says that not one leading bank will give up its UK banking licence next year to relocate to the EU.

Winnings to charity. Well Anthony, do we have a bet?

With Steven Woolfe out and more candidates throwing their hats into the ring, Guido brings you an update on the UKIP leadership race:

Suzanne Evans: Quietly gathering signatures for her nomination. Her suspension has lapsed, she should be a member in good standing for 28 days (we think) and thus eligible. Bookies’ favourite. Will her closeness to the Farage-hating Carswell faction cost her with the grassroots?

Paul Nuttall: Other candidates fear Nuttall will win if he stands. This Telegraph article sounds like he wants it. Though there is no noticeable effort to gather signatures, he didn’t want to run last time and will be asking himself if it’s really worth it. Dithering or not bothering at all?

Raheem Kassam: Loudly gathering the necessary signatures. Has been campaigning hard online and thinks he has enough signatures to submit the paperwork on Sunday. If Nuttall doesn’t run there is a possibility Raheem could actually do it. His price to win is tighter than Trump’s!

Peter Whittle: UKIP’s London mayoral candidate is popular in the capital. While campaigning in Witney he appeared on one of Kassam’s campaign videos and even said his rival’s slogan: “Make UKIP Great Again”, though he tells Guido he is not on Team Raheem. Also quietly gathering signatures.

Bill Etheridge: Said he’d stand unless there was somebody he could back 100%. Accused of cheating by his fiancee. Has been round the rubber chicken circuit.

David Kurten: Lower profile, tried to be nominated as UKIP’s mayoral candidate with a false London address. When Breitbart asked him how he responded to allegations of racism in UKIP he replied: “UKIP isn’t racist, I love white people!”

Suzanne, Nuttall and Raheem are the frontrunners…

This gutsy call sees one of Europe’s largest betting companies put their neck on the line for over $1,000,000. Prior to paying out, the former First Lady’s odds fell to a low 2/11 (84.6 per cent chance of winning) and over the past week Paddy Power have seen a flood of money on Clinton.

Guido’s Paddy Power bookie says:

‘Trump gave it a hell of a shot going from a rank outsider to the Republican candidate but the recent flood of revelations have halted his momentum and his chances now look as patchy as his tan. Recent betting trends have shown one way traffic for Hillary and punters seemed to have called it 100 per cent correct. Despite Trump’s Make America Great Again message appealing to many disillusioned voters, it looks as though America are going to put a woman in the White House.

Should Trump upset the odds and win it will trigger the biggest political payout in bookmaking history and leave Paddy Power with some very expensive egg on its face. They are still taking other US election bets…

Check the small print on the bet terms here.

Above shows the latest odds from the bookies courtesy of Betdata.io. In a situation that is very fluid the betting markets are probably the best place to gain insight into the candidate’s support – real money rather than spin. Woolfe pulling out is good for Kassam, his chances have since shot up, with a lot of his Faragist support going to Raheem. He’s running a characteristically energetic campaign online.

Suzanne Evans is the bookies’ favourite and the truth of that position is bolstered by YouGov polling:

This situation will change rapidly. The YouGov polling above was done before Woolfe had quit and Kassam had declared. It is still unclear if Nuttall is definitely running. Suzanne has not exactly been campaigning hard having only had it confirmed yesterday by the UKIP NEC that she could be a candidate. Nominations close on Halloween, the full horror show finishes on November 28…

The above survey by Bloomberg was published on June 29, 2016, just 6 days after Britain voted for Brexit. It is a survey of the City’s leading economists, some of the highest paid brains in Britain. 71% of them predicted Britain would go into recession in 2016. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch both said that the UK’s GDP would move dramatically negative, dropping 2.5% almost immediately. The only difference of opinion within the 71% was how soon it would come. Barclays claimed that Britain’s economy was already contracting…

All this is going to be proved wrong. The UK economy will probably grow by a respectable 2% or thereabouts this year, a rate many €urozone countries look at enviously. Is there a single City economist still willing to bet Guido £1,000 that by the end of this year Britain will be in recession?