Mr Bercow is in a position he can’t be used to: he’s the favourite. Or rather, at the time of going to pixel, a horse called Mr Bercow running in the 17:20 at Limerick racecourse is the odds on favourite to win. As usual, Sally is not riding him – the jockey is Keith Donoghue, with one win in his last eleven races backers will be hoping for better luck today. Currently he’s 4/1…
Of course Speaker Bercow took the government for a ride over Brexit, putting parliamentary hurdles in their way; this time the finishing line is only 2 miles and 5 furlongs from the start. The Bercow-sized jockey will be sporting yellow colours, in line with the former speaker’s preferred party. If you fancy a flutter he’ll be under starting order! Orders in shortly…
UPDATE: Mr Bercow won!
Earlier this week it was reported that the age limit for playing the National Lottery will rise from 16 to 18 next year, as Oliver Dowden launched a review of the 2005 Gambling Act – which has been described by DCMS as an “analogue law in a digital a digital age”. The current 16 year-old floor of the lottery being seen by the department as a potential “gateway to problem gambling”…
Given these concerns, Guido was surprised to receive an invite from CCHQ later in the week for their weekly lottery draw, in which members can win up to £5,000, and raise money to help the party “Deliver on our promises”. The minimum participation age?
Just after midnight as the early results came in far stronger for Trump than the pollsters had predicted, the betting markets flipped odds, making Trump the strong favourite to win. Donald’s red line showed him peaking in the early hours of the morning and he remained favourite until late morning London time, when Biden’s blue line started to climb as he began to claw some of the states which were competitive. As we go to pixel punters give Biden an 80% plus probability of being the next President of the United States…
The regular ConservativeHome polling of the rank and file shows that Rishi is enjoying much acclaim as the Tory Chancellor over-seeing the biggest rise in government debt since George Osborne and making Gordon Brown look tight-fisted. The readers might not be exactly representative of the wider party membership, nevertheless, they are broadly representative and one thing is clear – those reshuffle rumours* about Priti Patel spread by her many enemies in the media are wide of the mark. She is currently more popular than the PM…
On the other hand Robert Jenrick has a negative rating of -23. The betting markets don’t reflect this…
*Don’t expect an imminent re-shuffle in any event.
After being cleared of bullying and very strong performance of late, punters have lengthened the odds on former favourite Priti Patel being the next to exit the Cabinet. Save your money, there would be a hue and cry from the Tory rank and file if she was moved. Can’t see her being pushed out in a rumoured July reshuffle.
Robert Jenrick’s odds have shortened to now make him the minister that is most at risk in a reshuffle. He is in all kinds of trouble, “Murky Links in Billionaire’s Property Deal” type headlines have not been kind to him in the last week. Jenrick’s embroiled in that perennial political scandal – a planning decision that favours a party donor. He over-ruled the local council to approve a billion pound development. Planned by developers he coincidentally was sat next to on the table at a Carlton Club fundraising dinner organised by CCHQ…
If you fancy your luck Jenrick’s 4/1 at the bookies: Next Cabinet Member to Leave.
@Arron_banks so I want 24 ounces of Columbia marching powder and a 5crt diamond please @GuidoFawkes pic.twitter.com/Q0mNSD2llq
— Andy Wigmore (@andywigmore) April 27, 2017
For the record, and sorry to disappoint Carole and the rest of the conspiracy theorists, the leak of the direct messages which reveals Guido’s editor arranging to pay £10,000 in cash to Arron Banks (N.B. Carole pay to, not get paid by) was hardly secret. It was paid after losing a bet, made in front of half of SW1’s finest at a Spectator party, that Trump would not become president in 2016. It was a painful night, as he lost the same bet with Nigel Farage.
Banks had arranged to have lunch to collect his winnings and he forgot. Which was irritating. The leaked DMs go as follows:
PS “Where we having lunch?”
AB “Hi there , I’m free most of Feb after the Washington trip .. Hertford Street!”
PS “You forgot to put today in the diary didn’t you? Have a wedge of £50s here…”
AB “What’s today!”
PS “The day you said we would have lunch.”
AB “Sorry then I’ve fucked up.”
PS “If you don’t want the £10k that’s fine with me….”
AB “I’ll check diary and let’s agree a day in Feb . I’m in the office tomorrow . Next week by the way is going to be Huge! Some interesting stuff going on in Washington”
When Banks later claimed publicly that the bet was unpaid it led to a testy exchange…
PS “As you well know I have had your £10,000 sitting in the bloody safe for months. Really resent your implication.”
AB “Believe it or I’m busy . Andy has tried repeatedly to get in touch – he will come and collect the cash .”
PS “He has my number and not called. Send him round. You should point out on Twitter that you fucked up, not me.”
Andy Wigmore eventually picked up the winnings in April 2017 and rubbed it in a little. As the characteristically accurate tweet above, hidden in plain sight, demonstrated. No roubles were involved, Carole…
The situation for other publications currently going through hacked DMs – of which their journalists were neither the sender or the recipient – is more complicated. There is no public interest defence for the hacking. There is no evidence of crimes – apart from the act of hacking. There is a lot of stuff that is embarrassing for politicians and journalists. Am looking at you, Ms Hyde…
