Rachel Reeves has received a blunt wake-up call from former economic secretary Andrew Griffith and former minister for investment Dominic Johnson ahead of the Autumn Statement. They’ve slammed Labour for “talking down” the economy, which has scared off investors, with business investment plummeting from +24 in July to -6, the steepest drop since the pandemic. As they astutely put it: “no one buys shares in a company whose CEO and CFO do nothing but whine.”

Griffith and Johnson also pushed Labour to embrace the post-Brexit landscape, championing the benefits of the CPTPP and the UK’s strategic role amid the swirling uncertainties in Europe and the US. Despite Starmer’s flirtations with the EU, Labour should be “selling” the fact the UK has the power to craft its own laws and trade agreements…

The duo issues a stark warning against Labour’s tax-the-rich agenda, particularly their plans targeting non-doms, as Treasury briefings suggest such measures could end up costing the Exchequer more than they bring in. Instead, they encourage Labour to leverage its connections within the unions and public sector to champion reforms in pensions, urban development, driverless transport, and NHS data sharing. Policies the Tories weren’t able to implement…

Finally they suggest it might be time for Labour to sideline “Red Ed“. The pair point out that Labour’s green policies are pushing up energy costs for manufacturers and driving away investment. With £8 billion already pumped into GB Energy to keep him “busy”, Miliband would be better occupied with offshore wind projects instead…

Labour would be wise to heed the advice of these Tory investment supremos…

Labour’s ceaseless Britain-bashing and their relentless “doom and gloom” script have pushed the panic button on the economy. Talk of a “painful” budget has businesses running for cover. A staggering 71% surge in mergers and acquisitions—business owners are frantically selling up ahead of Labour’s capital gains tax raid. Start-ups are being strangled by Labour’s crackdown on innovation tax credits. And now 9,500 millionaires set to flee the UK in 2024…

The drip-feed of pessimism from Labour’s economic doomsayers is doing its damage. Investors are voting with their feet, with £666 million drained from UK-focused funds in September alone. Equity income funds shed £416 million. Edward Glyn, head of global markets at Calastone, said:

“The new government’s rather pessimistic commentary about the UK economy appears to have put a stop to the nascent revival in interest in domestic equities that we first detected in trading data in July. UK-focused funds seem to be off the menu for investors for the time being.”

Rachel Reeves might be betting on pulling an “Osborne”—permanently saddling the opposition with the tag of economic incompetence — though it’s backfiring fast. Labour can’t just blame the other lot without bringing solutions to the table. The clever-sounding spin from Labourites—set low expectations of a tax-heavy budget only to swoop in with a “not quite as bad” reveal—has completely flopped. Businesses are bolting. Labour’s doom-loop of self-fulfilling prophecies is driving the very decline they keep talking about…

As Rachel Reeves sharpens her knives for the “painful” Autumn Statement, Guido thought he’d dig into those on her economic advisory council at the Treasury. Unsurprisingly, they’re a troupe of tax-hiking, anti-Brexit, climate crusaders…

Leading this merry band is John Van Reenen, a relic from the Blair years. Van Reenen’s greatest hits include papers arguing that  the low top-rate income taxes have little benefits for innovation, and argues for higher fuel prices to stamp out what he calls “dirty innovation.” Perhaps that’s where the rumoured fuel duty hike might be coming from. He’s also a vocal Brexit basher, pushing for a “soft Brexit”— rejoining the Single Market. According to him, the so-called benefits of Brexit, like trade deals with non-EU countries, are hardly worth the paper they’re written on… 

Then there’s Neil Amin Smith, former Labour staffer and moonlighting member of Clean Bandit, who has been singing the same tune: more taxes. He’s proposed letting councils slap a 3p surtax on the basic income tax rate, suggesting tax devolution that allows councils to control part of the income tax schedule. It’s no surprise he’s on Labour’s side, writing in 2019: “Ultimately there is only one way of increasing the funding available across government – higher taxes.” Guido wouldn’t be shocked if he was playing that line to Reeves as we speak…

Anna Valero is another anti-Brexit crusader who’s joined the Chancellor’s echo chamber. She’s often spoke about the “chaos” of Brexit “threatening” the UK’s economy. Valero’s another one who’s been pushing Net Zero, arguing the UK should invest £26 billion a year in a low-carbon economy instead of tax giveaways. She’s also poured cold water on tax cuts in general, claiming they don’t spur growth. With advisers like these, it’s no wonder the Autumn Statement is shaping up to be a tax hike bonanza. The “party for growth”, everyone…

Starmer has been gearing the nation up today for a “painful” budget this October, once again dodging the question of wealth taxes, particularly a capital gains tax raid. He insists that “broader shoulders should bear the heaviest burdens” to fill the so-called black hole. Meanwhile, businesses and landlords are scrambling to sell up to avoid the looming raid, and green energy investors are hitting pause on their plans, spooked by the prospect of Reeves’ Autumn Statement on the eve of Halloween…

With capital gains tax raids in sight, private investors are getting cold feet. NatPower UK’s CEO, who promised to pump £10 billion into UK green energy, says investors are stalling due to the expected tax hikes:

“I’m talking with investors and they are definitely considering and waiting for decisions to be made so that they can make their own decisions. For infrastructure investors in the energy transition, it is the capital gains tax that is particularly relevant.”

Labour’s been pushing the narrative that their costly GB Energy plan will be bankrolled by the private sector, sparing taxpayers the cheque to reach Net Zero, though as Guido’s flagged before, the numbers don’t add up. Labour cutting their nose despite their face on capital gains tax could force them into yet another policy U-turn. If private investors bolt, “working people” will be left footing the bill to meet Net Zero targets—or more likely, the 2030 goal will be quietly shelved. The latter might be the better option…

Reeves is preparing to deliver a speech on the supposedly “surprise” £20 billion black hole Labour have found after looking at the books. Reeves is still pushing the narrative that Labour is “shocked” by the numbers, despite the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies blasting the claim as “not credible”. Now key ally and Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden is paving the way for surprise additional tax rises, u-turning on their “no ifs, no buts” election promise not to do so…

Speaking on Times Radio this morning, McFadden said:

“We also said there was nothing in our plans at the election that required increases in taxes. That was the case during the election and today what you will hear is how we are going to have to respond to that opening of the books and I think what people should expect today is not tax measures but a Chancellor that is prepared to take some very tough decisions in spending.”

It looks like cuts in infrastructure spending – despite claiming to be ‘pro-growth’ – and increases in taxes on savings and investment will be the theme of this Labour government. They can’t blame the Tories forever…

Rachel Reeves is set to reveal a so-called ‘surprise’ £20 billion black hole in the UK’s finances, paving the way for what Labour do best: tax raids in the upcoming Autumn Statement. Despite her election pledges, Rachel Reeves refused to commit to no new tax rises on wealth, property, inheritance or capital gains as she prepares to splash the cash on the public sector. Asset-holders will be preparing to pack their bags…

Labour are pointing fingers at the Tories, incorrectly claiming finances are in the worst shape since the Second World War, and blaming the state of welfare, prisons, asylum systems and defence for what will likely see huge tax rises. With GB Energy also set to rake in at least £8.3 billion from the taxpayer – a scheme that if were actually viable, would see the private sector itching to jump in without needing a government handout – the black hole will likely be higher. The public will quickly forget about the Tories’ record if Labour are the ones to hike up rates…