Starmer has used this speech to set the narrative for Autumn, which is: “We had no idea it was so bad.” In summary:

• Growth, meaning wealth creation, is number one priority of government. Hence wealth fund, planning reforms, Great British Energy, and “ending the national strikes.” See how that goes…
• Labour has done more in 7 weeks than the Tories did in 7 years.
• “Things are worse than we ever imagined” – this isn’t a performative statement, the £22 billion black hole in finances wasn’t seen by OBR prior to the election.
• “Mindless minority of thugs” smashed up communities and terrified minorities. Crime has consequences.
• Society is “deeply unhealthy“, weakened by a “decade of division and decline.“
• Tory “populism” offered more failure.
• Dealing with this round of riots was harder than 2011 because Starmer didn’t know if courts could handle it.
• The UK has a “societal black hole.“
• Tough choices are ahead. Things will get worse before they get better. Ding…
• Starmer didn’t want to release prisoners early – the government wouldn’t have been able to respond to the riots if it had not been done.
• Starmer didn’t want to means test the Winter Fuel Allowance.
• Unpopular decisions coming now for the long term.
• Tories won’t accept the cost they have inflicted on country or apologise for it.
• starmer made huge asks of police and justice system during riots.
• Parliament returns next week – it won’t be business as usual because there is serious work to do.
• Budget in October is “going to be painful” and there is no other choice. He says it’s right that the “broadest shoulders should bear heaviest burdens”…
• Big asks will be made of the country at the budget too.
• Riots revealed the cure because people repaired damage done.
• Let’s fix the country together.

Starmer is asked to be honest about tax rises and refuses to spell out which ones are in consideration because what he “didn’t expect was a £22 billion black hole.” He also says the Winter Fuel Allowance is not a “well-designed scheme.” Starmer’s line on cronyism is that he “won’t take lectures.” Will this be enough to calm the mob?

The next “phase” of Sunak’s government is finally kicking into gear today with the Autumn Statement. Some measures are being briefed in what is being sold, as always, as a budget for working people. Treasury officials have kept tight-lipped about additional business measures, which are the most important…

• 1% cut in headline rate of national insurance for employees and the self-employed.
• Full expensing made permanent. An obvious measure…
• Benefits and the state pension will rise by 6.7% and 8.5% respectively. Higher than trailed…
• National living wage and minimum wage hiked. Crowd pleasers without much benefit…
• Freeze on alcohol duties.

Cuts to inheritance tax and income tax have reportedly been delayed until the Spring Budget. No action on thresholds means that Hunt’s still raking in increasingly large amounts from stealth tax rises, costing workers around £80 billion by 2028. Stay tuned for the full list of measures…

Jeremy Hunt is now explicitly warning people to be disappointed by his Autumn Statement:

“In the short term, we have challenges. We have a challenge with inflation, which is still too high. And we have the challenge of the international environment where there is still a lot of shocks… I need, as Chancellor, to focus on reliance in the face of those shocks. I am very much hoping for the best, but I do need to prepare for the worst, because I think we can see that the world is a very dangerous place right now.”

When asked if voters can expect good or bad news on 22^nd November, Hunt added “I think it’s a bit of both“. There’s that boosterism the Tories needed…

With the Autumn Statement around the corner, His Majesty’s Treasury has called for policy suggestions from… the public. The Treasury took to Twitter/X last night to fish for ideas, perhaps because they don’t yet have any themselves. Desperate times call for desperate measures…

Did you know you can suggest policy ideas for the Autumn Statement?

Head to our representation portal by 5pm on Friday 13 October 2023 to submit your idea.https://t.co/FVbMy6dSLc pic.twitter.com/Rse7uUWxi3

— HM Treasury (@hmtreasury) September 25, 2023

Entries close on October 13^th.  Co-conspirators might want to offer some actual conservative ideas… maybe cutting taxes?